Politics Indiana: Trump in a romp, Sanders ahead of Clinton, CNN reports Cruz dropping out, Kasich too

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by Denny Crane, May 3, 2016.

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  1. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    What do you disagree with? I simply pointed out why they got it wrong...I didn't try to suggest they didn't get it wrong.

    Knowing why something was gotten wrong is useful, especially when you say "THEY GOT TRUMP WRONG CLEARLY EVERYONE'S GETTING TRUMP WRONG AGAIN."

    I mean, by your logic, Trump will rule America as a king for the rest of eternity. Constitutional limits? Human life spans? Please...that's "expert talk" and experts got Trump wrong.
     
    Minstrel, May 5, 2016
    #101
  2. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I think he was so certain that he gave odds: 2% chance. Not "I doubt he's going to be the nominee." 2% is a number you'd expect he means with certainty. The guy is all about the odds.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
    #102
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    By my logic, Trump is going to erase Hiliar's lead in the polls as he did with the republicans (starting with Jeb), and then he'll be victorious in the election. That's not with certainty, it's just what the pattern has been. If the prognosticators have been wrong all along and they're now saying he has no chance, it suggests they're still wrong.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
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  4. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Hello darkness, my old friend
    Right...so he got it wrong. However, that was in defiance of the polling numbers. His site had the polling right, and his site's models generally correctly called the states and even the vote shares (in the case of Polls Only). So the moral of the story is, trust the data. Instead, you're making the same mistake Nate Silver did, in ignoring it. ;)

    To wit:

    Just as Nate Silver assumed that Marco Rubio was going to erase Trump's lead in the polls. Assuming someone is going to erase polling leads tends to lead to being wrong a lot. It's surprising that you've decided to follow Silver's approach in discounting polling leads! It almost sounded like you were criticizing him before, but it turns out you wanted to emulate him.
     
    Minstrel, May 5, 2016
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  5. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    just wow.

    Where did 2% come from? It's a PRECISE figure. He could have said, "my gut says he can't win the nomination." But he didn't.


    I explained my reasoning. The pollsters and prognosticators got it all wrong so far. So if you want to be right, you go against what they now predict. That's all there is to it.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
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  6. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Yeah, but that reasoning is based on an incorrect premise. The polls have pegged Trump pretty perfectly all along. If Trump had been trailing in the polls all along, you'd have a point.

    Your reasoning is really, "The polls don't say what I want now, so I'll pretend they've been wrong all along." :)
     
    Minstrel, May 5, 2016
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  7. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
    #107
  8. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Poll projected him with a 15 point lead and he won by 16.6%? Well, that's convincing. #unskewthepolls
     
    Minstrel, May 5, 2016
    #108
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  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    49% vs 53%

    That's off by ~10%.

    It's not accurate.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
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  10. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/u...on-donald-trump-heres-what-it-means.html?_r=0

    Polls Were Way Off on Donald Trump. Here’s What It Means.
    http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-ohio-republican-presidential-primary

    Polls: Kasich 40.1%, Trump 37.1%
    Actual: Kasich 47%, Trump 36%

    It's not so good for Hiiar/Sanders.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

    Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-how-bernie-sanders-won-indiana-20160503-story.html

    How Bernie Sanders beat the polls and won Indiana
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
    #110
  11. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    How much is Mags paying you to post about Trump?
     
    SlyPokerDog, May 5, 2016
    #111
  12. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Maddow. Take it for what it's worth (not much).

    http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/new-polling-points-raised-ceiling-republican-frontrunner

    New polling points to a raised ceiling for Republican frontrunner

    As the race for the Republican presidential nomination has unfolded, there’s been ample talk about Donald Trump’s “ceiling.” The argument has long been that the New York developer may enjoy support from some modest contingent within the GOP, but there’s a limit to his appeal. The question is when Trump would reach that cap and where it stands.

    But the campaign season progressed, and Trump’s national support grew, there was a near-constant reevaluation of what, exactly, this ceiling might be. As of late yesterday, it appears we’ll have to adjust our assumptions about the limits of his Republican backing once again.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
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  13. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm posting against Hiliar.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
    #113
  14. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
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  15. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko Staff Member Global Moderator

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    If polls are no good and shouldn't be believed, Denny, why are you constantly posting them?

    barfo
     
    barfo, May 5, 2016
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  16. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Mags is paying him $2 per post.
     
    SlyPokerDog, May 5, 2016
    #116
  17. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    It's the best we have, as far as the "current score" is concerned. It's useful, but not gospel.
     
    Denny Crane, May 5, 2016
    #117
  18. BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94

    BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94 AWOL

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    Jokes on Mags, I'd do it for $1.99
     
    BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94, May 5, 2016
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  19. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    He pays $5 for cute memes he can post on twitter.
     
    SlyPokerDog, May 5, 2016
    #119
  20. barfo

    barfo triggered obsessive commie pinko Staff Member Global Moderator

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    So we should look at them, but believe in them only to the extent that they agree with your preferences.

    barfo
     
    barfo, May 5, 2016
    #120
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