Lillard’s confidence is shot

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Bingo Bango, Nov 5, 2021.

  1. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    Dame has been surpassed by Beal for the worst 2021 3-Point slump. BUT.... Dame is still -2.6 standard deviations below his career which is more significant than Beal's at -2.2 because Dame has take a lot more 3's this year. We're not out of the woods. This could be variance. This could still be something worse.

    ThreesScatterPlot.20211107.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2021
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  2. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    In the Nov 6 Lakers game win, Dame scored 6 of 14 which is 42.85%. Dame is on his way back!
     
  3. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    That's a pretty cool chart. With all the criticism of the new ball, people have been pointing to down years (so far) of some shooters, but that chart seems to show it's mostly just noise. Some guys are way up, some guys are way down. Looks like generally a little down (probably the ball + more aggressive perimeter defenses.) But you have to figure there will be a regression to the mean as the sample size grows.

    I really, really hope that Dame continues to....regress(!)
     
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  4. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    Most of it does appear to be noise as you have players above and below the line in roughly similar proportions.

    FG% is down a bit from 0.463 prior two years to 0.448 this year which though seemingly insignificant is about 5 standard deviations, so more than just noise.

    Yeah, I really hope Dame continues to “regress”. This team is talented enough to have an outside shot at a title if the stars align:
    Dame returns to Dame
    Nurk plays like his best season
    Ant’s play is for real
    CJ plays like last year
    Little continues to develops
    We are completely healthy come playoffs
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2021
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  5. Trail Rhino

    Trail Rhino Active Member

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    Lillard’s confidence is shot? No, he isn’t Ben Simmons.
     
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  6. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Former Member Gone New!

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    Great graphs. They really show the variance.
    My overall feeling is I feel the damage is done this year as far as getting all the way back. What i would like is for him to just fall back to his norm from here on out (Much more likely). Simple fact is we are about 1/8 of the way through the season. He would have to be on absolute FIRE to get his averages all the way back. We need the 38-40% Dame and that will win games. I just don't see a way to bring 24% back to 40% this season. I can see him going 38-40% the rest of the way.

    If that makes any sense?
     
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  7. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    Yeah it makes complete sense. I didn’t mean he needs to get his season average back to what it was. Just if he can get back to normal for the rest of the season. He could get his 3 pt up to 37% though by going 39% the rest of the way.

    But I’d rather he got his free throw rate back to what it was. He can’t match past efficiency without that.
     
  8. RonBrewer

    RonBrewer Well-Known Member

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    This aged well.
     
  9. AldoTrapani

    AldoTrapani Well-Known Member

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    Yaaaa he’s going to have 82 straight bad games lol that’s realistic
     
  10. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Former Member Gone New!

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    IMO i just don't think that will happen this year. It's a combination of the calls. Even the touch fouls the refs called on the floor last year are not being called. Those fouls might not have given him shots directly but indirectly they accumulated fouls. Teams got into the penalty faster. So then even a bump sent dame to the line. He got more overall FT's and because he got more trips he made more and the team got those little rests of 30 seconds here and 30 seconds there. Then like blood in the water Dame would take advantage of those calls. It translated to drives to the basket as well. Guys got shy about guarding him because if they bumped him he was going to the line.
    The rule changes have really changed the game no question.
     
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  11. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Former Member Gone New!

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    Look man. Not sure you really understand but here you go.

    "Yaaaa he's going to have 82 straight bad games lol that's realistic" is exactly what this is about. He had a bad stretch but his career shows that bad stretches even out and he will average 37-40% shooting the 3 ball by years end.

    You continue to miss that very point. Damian Lillard will get hot. He has had way more Hot Streaks than cold throughout his career but the rule changes and new ball and injuries might hinder those "Hot Streaks" a bit this year.
     
  12. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    You're right Dame shot like shit for 9 games and Simmons only did it for 7.
     
  13. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    I kind of forgot about all the penalty fouls Dame picks up. But this is ridiculous.

    Free throw rates (FTA / FGA)

    Harden is down 20%
    Leagues is down 10%
    Dame is down 50%
     
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  14. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I'll keep saying it: Dame has been a victim of the new rules. They were aimed at players like Harden, but what is really happening is the officials are allowing lots of contact on dribble drives and that's costing Dame points. He's shooting his normal rate of shots at the rim but his FG% at the rim has dropped from .631 to .510. he's getting bumped, held, and redirected more than ever on his dribble drives. And while Dame has fished for whistles attacking the basket, he's never really done so using unnatural basketball moves

    the officials have overcompensated and swallowed their whistles so far
     
  15. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    yep and that little cushion he had because defenders didn't want to be suckered into a shooting foul has messed up his rhythm and shot. And when a player doesn't get to the free throw a lot that can effect his getting into a rhythm.
    Players like Doncic and Curry have noticed it too.
     
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  16. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    I get that but what I don’t get is why is Dame in particular SO much more a victim of the rules.
     
  17. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    maybe you need to crank up your algorithms.

    I see that Trae Young is down 41%; Beal is down 40%; Donovan Mitchell is down 30%. Maybe it's that some of the smaller players are being impacted by the increase in 'legal' physicality. It could also be that players who dribble-drive to the hoop more and have lower assisted FG rates are finding their offense more impeded. I know Dame has historically had real low assisted FG rates. Maybe dozen-dribble drives outside-in just have more opportunities for physical defense and contact to limit whistles, and that's hitting Dame harder than most players

    I can't think of any other reason why Dame's FG% at the rim has dropped from .636 to a career low .510. Of course, running the math that's 49 FGA's at the rim so far, meaning he's made 25. If he'd just 1 more of his attempts over every 2 game stretch his % would be .612. So...maybe sample size
     
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  18. julius

    julius Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    This was a nice reverse jinx thread.
     
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  19. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    doesn't mentioning the reverse-jinx reverse the reverse?

    Dame shoots like shit Tuesday I'll know who to blame
     
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  20. bobf

    bobf Well-Known Member

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    I was already on it LOL. X axis is 2020. Y is 2021. I chose players with a FTR >= 0.200 and at least 500 shots in 2020 and at least 100 shots in 2021. Median FGA in 2021 is around 150. Even stats like are subject to variance. Don't know what the losers have in common. Seems like bigger players are less affected.

    FTR2020v2021.png
     

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