I would...that's why I asked we know approximately what Oregon is drawing from the Big-10 media pie. It's somewhere in the 35M range, give or take a couple of million; same for Washington. Otther Big-10 teams make nearly twice that. We know what SEC programs make; what Big-12 programs make; what ACC programs make. We even have a pretty good idea what the Mountain West media deal will pay to each school not sure why the Pac-12 deal should be a secret
lots of different speculations out there: usually, when a range is this wide, 7-12M, it tends to fall in the middle. I read an article from a media 'expert' a few months ago who projected the payout to be in the 9-10M/year range, assuming the Pac-12 could find that 8th FBS member. It was the same expert who reported on the former Pac-12 grossly overrating their leverage in the failed talks for a media deal that the Big-12 came in behind the failure and picked up. He also was one of the first to report on the Big-10 deal numbers the Pac-X may be able to augment that a little bit with some streaming deals
It just sucks for the Beavers. They should take any opportunity to get out of the Pac-12. Ducks are paying Lanning what the Beavers will be getting in TV revenue. The math is just not there for the Pac-12 to become a power conference again in Football.
Welcome to 2023? When the pac12 collapsed 24 months ago the Beavs were stuck without a home - there was never going to be a great result. The Beavs and Pac have actually done much better than I expected. The Pac is positioned to be the top group of 5 conference. The worst schools are actually pretty strong so its a solid top to bottom conference. I know you talked about trying to go to the Big12 but thats just not something that was ever available or realistic. Going forward the Beavs and Pac just need to make the conference entertaining, emphasize its the best west coast options without crazy travel, and position it to capitalize on a 2030 expansion opportunity if some come up such as Stan/Cal types.
actually, I guess now it's the Group of Six Pac 12 AAC Conference USA MAC Mountain West Sun Belt googling the media deals: Pac 12 --> 10-11M/year AAC --> 7M/year Conference USA --> 750-800K/year (Yikes!) MAC --> 2-2.5M/year Mountain West --> 4M/year Sun Belt --> 2M/year The MAC had a deal paying each school 8M year, but that expired in 2023. Looks like the Pac-X picked up most of that loose change so, except for the AAC, the Pac has a huge advantage over the other G6 conferences in terms of media payout. They also have a pretty big advantage in name recognition and recent success in football (Boise St.) and basketball (San Diego St.). Texas St, is an awkward fit geographically, but if that school is OK with all the travel it doesn't matter. The Pac should continue to do what they have been doing and that's pick off other schools for specific sports. Gonzaga strengthens the basketball component. There may be other west coast basketball programs like Long Beach St. they could pick off. I think it's been mentioned there may be several candidates to join in baseball Sacramento St. is kind of interesting. The NCAA denied their application for FBS promotion because they didn't have an invite from an FBS conference. What they do have is a group of aggressive boosters who want the school to advance the sports programs. The problem is the media deals are set so the rest of the Pac's FBS programs won't want to dilute their shares by adding Sac St as a member getting their own share. Maybe Sac St is desperate enough for an invite they'd be willing to join and not have a payout till 2031. Having 9 conference members would probably make scheduling a little easier, especially if the MWC won't cooperate with non-conference scheduling, and recent comments by MWC representatives indicate it won't
The rise in costs of college football has an endgame. The world is running out of resources, the environment is shifting dramatically, and we are existing in the swan song of large scale discretionary income. Simply put...the haves vs have nots....is going to soon be a rapidly shrinking group. The Beavers were never in that group, nor realistically within reach. There is going to be plenty of medicine to be taken. The Beavers are taking theirs now. Thank god we got the stadium before this all went down. Really looking forward to college football, the way it used to be. Every day, I like this more. Go Beavers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
