<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Apr 18 2008, 03:02 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Apr 18 2008, 03:48 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Apr 18 2008, 01:34 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Dumpy @ Apr 18 2008, 01:54 PM)
<{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>If you look at recent history, a traded draft pick is NEVER worth as much as the IDEA of the draft pick. Look at the lottery draft picks that have been dealt in draft-day trades, and they're rarely worth as much as the player that comes back.</div>
3 quick examples of trades for high picks that worked out well for the team receiving the better pick.
The Utah Jazz moved up from the #6 pick to the #3 pick in 2005
The Portland Trail Blazers moved up from the #4 pick to the #2 pick in 2006
The Detroit Pistons traded Darko for what ended up as the #15 pick in 2007
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I'm not talking about trading lottery picks for lottery picks, or lottery picks for still-developing players, but of course you knew that. I'm talking about trading a lottery pick where the primary asset coming back is a veteran player. For example, Jeff Green for Ray Allen.
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Well for starters, the example you used is pretty crappy. The Sonics wanted to get worse as they wanted the fans not to show up at the arena.
Next, how many such trades have there been? In 2001 the Grizzlies made out great trading SAR for the right to pick Gasol. The same year, the Bulls traded Brand for the right to pick Tyson Chandler. Now, that didn't work out well for the Bulls, however, that was the Bulls fault. As soon as Tyson was traded away from the Bulls, he developed into one of the top Centers in the NBA.
In 2002, the Knicks traded Camby and the #7 pick (Nene) for Antonio McDyess. The Nuggets got the better end of that deal. In 2004, the Wizards traded the #5 pick (Devin Harris) for Antawn Jamison. While Jamison put up better stats, you also have consider that the Mavs wanted both Jamison and Walker gone at almost any cost.
Even limited to your narrow scope, it is at best 50/50 and not the bleak picture you are attempting to paint.
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You left out the Nets trading a couple of draft picks for Vince Carter.
actually, I read an article promoting this position, giving a number of examples. However, I don't remember if it was based on a detailed analysis or was just the subjective opinion of the author. However, it seemed pretty convincing. I don't remember where I read it.