How many wins do you expect a healthy Blazer team to get?

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How many wins would disappoint you if we're healthy?

  • 50 or fewer (hey we got that many decimated)

    Votes: 5 11.1%
  • 52-54 (we got that many in 08/09 and we're better now)

    Votes: 5 11.1%
  • 55-58 (a healthy team is at least a large improvement)

    Votes: 18 40.0%
  • 59+ no way this team isn't a title contender when healthy

    Votes: 17 37.8%

  • Total voters
    45

espn_hall_of_famer

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So taking into consideration that this team won 54 games with a healthy Roy, healthy Aldridge and a healthy Batum and a 75% Oden for 75% of the games in 08/09.

And now two years removed from the 54-win group of a healthy Roy, Aldridge and Batum. Add upgrades at PG from Blake to Miller. Add upgrade of Outlaw with former DPOY Camby. Add upgrade of Webster with Babbitt. Add upgrade of backup to Roy from Rudy to Matthews. And add an upgrade of a 100% Oden for 70+ games and how many wins would you be upset if we only got.
 
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If we got the kind of health you're describing, I'd be disappointed with fewer than 55 wins. 55-60 wins would be acceptable, but I think the team would have a shot for 60+ wins.
 
Does Nate know how to appropriately use a full Blazers roster? Has that ever been proven with this particular group? Is Miller coming off the bench again? Gag.

Based on a healthy roster, I would say 55-60. But I have some reservations.
 
There's a difference between your thread title and your actual poll question.
 
I'm not sure this team has the right compliment of players to get to 60 wins: too guard heavy, still (possibly) no legit low post threat, perhaps not enough outside shooting, perimeter defense could still be an issue, etc.

I would expect 54-57 wins though, and that's nothing to sneeze at.
 
Kyle Korver and Boozer think they're a title contender.

I laugh. Our roster, if healthy is way better.
 
I think 58-60. One thing, I do not believe Babbitt is an upgrade from Marty at all! We will miss Webster's defense and his ability to spread the floor. He wasn't consistent by any means, but I believe his skills will be missed.
 
I think 58-60. One thing, I do not believe Babbitt is an upgrade from Marty at all! We will miss Webster's defense and his ability to spread the floor. He wasn't consistent by any means, but I believe his skills will be missed.
I am not so sure that Webs will be missed. We may miss his D, but Batum is a better defender and will now be able to play more minutes, and hopefully Matthews and Cunningham, both good defenders, will be good enough to cover the D for the of the time.

As far as spreading the floor, He was not a good shooter most of the time. Batum is better, Matthews is better, Babbit may be better, and who knows who else will step up. I really wish Andre had a better outside shot since that would nullify our shooting problems.
 
For healthy, I'm assuming no major players are out more than 5 games or so. It would have to be at least 55, maybe closer to 60. Then again, there is a very small chance that ALL of those guys stay healthy. I'm just hoping for minor injuries. Give me an ankle sprain any day.
 
No way they're "healthy" but I'd expect 82 if they were.

I expect maybe 50.
 
So taking into consideration that this team won 54 games with a healthy Roy, healthy Aldridge and a healthy Batum and a 75% Oden for 75% of the games in 08/09.

And now two years removed from the 54-win group of a healthy Roy, Aldridge and Batum. Add upgrades at PG from Blake to Miller. Add upgrade of Outlaw with former DPOY Camby. Add upgrade of Webster with Babbitt. Add upgrade of backup to Roy from Rudy to Matthews. And add an upgrade of a 100% Oden for 70+ games and how many wins would you be upset if we only got.
I don't agree with your assumptions.

Babbitt is very unlikely to be an upgrade over Martell.

Blake had a career year that year. If age catches up to Miller even a little bit, that won't pan out as a large upgrade.

Rudy was good as a rookie. Not sure Matthews is guaranteed to be better than Rudy was.

Of course, these are different types of players, so how it all plays out is a big question.
 
For healthy, I'm assuming no major players are out more than 5 games or so. It would have to be at least 55, maybe closer to 60. Then again, there is a very small chance that ALL of those guys stay healthy. I'm just hoping for minor injuries. Give me an ankle sprain any day.

I agree with this.

I don't think we have the perfect blend of talents and experience to be a team that dominates so completely that we cruise to 62+ games. Among our top 8 or 9 players we don't have enough perimeter defense, proven 3pt shooting, and proven paint scoring.

That may all change with a bit of roster tweaking and more experience. If we can upgrade the PG position so we have a guy that can defend and spread the floor, and if Batum and Matthews establish themselves as feared 3pt shooters, and Oden establishes that he must be doubled everytime in the post,

then we are SET!
 
I said 52-54. IMO there are still too many players with the same basic skill level, and I think that will lead to some sort of problems in the locker room.

Bayless wants and deserves PT
Rudy wants and deserves PT
Roy wants and deserves PT
Matthews wants and deserves PT
Batum wants and deserves PT
Miller wants and deserves PT


Oden wants and deserves PT
Joel wants and deserves PT
Camby wants and deserves PT
 
I expect 53 wins; Oden has a 53-29 record in the 82 games he's played, and we were on course to win 53 last year before he went down. This is not to say I won't hope for more, but this season? 53 is going to be pretty good in the NW division.
 
I expect 53 wins; Oden has a 53-29 record in the 82 games he's played, and we were on course to win 53 last year before he went down. This is not to say I won't hope for more, but this season? 53 is going to be pretty good in the NW division.

So do you hold is as a non-factor that Camby is there, or do you think there is any potential improvement to the roster in having Oden out there for 82 games (as your forecast appears to be assuming that we'd win 53 wins with a healthy Oden for 82 games). I would think having a DPOY top 20 frontcourt player to play the off-minutes between Oden and LMA, it would add a large increase over those last 82 games or the pace we were on in those first 21 games last season.
 
55 wins and a top three defensive rating.

More importantly, they would make at least the second round of the playoffs.
 
GIven the natural progression of our young talent (batum, bayless, cunningham) and the upgrade that is Wes Matthews over Rudy Fernandez. Which on the defensive end is a huge up grade and even probably so on the offensive end considering how Rudy played in the playoffs. Having oden healthy for even 60 games and camby for a full season, should raise our win total by at least 4 games. This offseason the west definitely got weaker, I say 56-58 and possibly 60 if luck evens out from last year.
 
More than 4 games.

I could see this team if healthy winning somewhere around 60 games.
 
62 wins. Provided Roy and Oden stay healthy and we don't get absolutely decimated with injuries at other positions.

Yeah, it's a pretty damned big caveat.
 
Babbitt is very unlikely to be an upgrade over Martell.
Blake had a career year that year. If age catches up to Miller even a little bit, that won't pan out as a large upgrade.
Rudy was good as a rookie. Not sure Matthews is guaranteed to be better than Rudy was.
Of course, these are different types of players, so how it all plays out is a big question.

I would argue that Babbitt is going to neutralize the loss of Martell. Here's my thinking (I'm not not into unsupported conclusory statements); I think Babbitt will be better than Martell because of rebounding and consistent shooting. I was actually quite impressed with his rebounding in summer league, particularly on offense. He showed an instinct for the ball that guys like Camby and Keve Love have, and guys like LaMarcus and Amare don't. And I think Babbitt's shooting will be, once he's comfortable, more consistent if not a higher average than Martell making him a more predictable tool in the toolbox. Marty was really streaky. I think predictable makes for easier match up analysis by coaches, and better utilization. I got the feeling Martell was put in at times and the coaches just hoped he could score. When he missed a couple he'd get benched. Trial and error, but in the meantime the game could get farther away. Babbitt as a more reliable shooter would mitigate that. The one area I think Martell will be missed is his on the ball defense, I don't see Babbitt as good. But on the whole I think Babbitt will at least even out the loss of Martell's contribution.

I agree Blake had a great shooting year, but Miller is so much better at driving and diming. Numerically Miller does more, but being a poor shooting driving guard allows defenses to collapse which clogged the lane. One result was LaMarcus being forced outside even more and getting double teamed easier. I'm honestly still not sure how to rate this, but if I had to choose I'd rather have Miller.

I think Matthews is going to be a big upgrade as a defender and even though I agree that Rudy had a nice rookie year shooting, I'm assuming Matthews shoots at least the same as he did last year. Plus Matthews doesn't try to do too much and make stupid turnovers, like Rudy was particularly prone to last year, so I don't see how anyone thinks we didn't improve here.

Speaking of Rudy, I'm old enough to remember Bill Walton sitting out the '78/79 season. He ripped the organization for not giving him good medical care and advice, which is different than Rudy's situation, but I'm completely utterly unsympathetic to his complaints and how it's been handled. If I was PA, I'd happily let that stupid Spanish a**wipe sit in Spain for the next two years without playing instead of moving him. I've no patience for this morons who take cheap shots at my Blazers. They need to understand there's a price to pay and they won't $&^*$ like it. I see moving him for a first round pick as a capitulation. Don't encourage future prima donna's from pulling this crap by rewarding him with a move to a team he wants.

This was interesting to me. I wonder if this is how Jeff Ma approaches the analysis. There are so many variables I'm not sure you can break it down to these types of additions and subtractions but maybe someone wayyyy smarter than me has dialed it in.
 
Everyone's basically predicting 50+ wins which translates to playoffs. I don't think wins this season, aside from enough to make the playoffs, defines success. I think making at least the second round of the playoffs defines a successful 2010/11 season.

And a step further, if we don't have significant injuries and still don't make it out of the first round, I don't believe the current roster will improve significantly beyond where it's at and a major move needs to be made involving core player(s).
 
If we talk about the playoffs...I'd be disappointed if a fully healthy squad (that means no core players missing or significantly limited by injuries) didn't reach the Western Conference Finals.
 
If we talk about the playoffs...I'd be disappointed if a fully healthy squad (that means no core players missing or significantly limited by injuries) didn't reach the Western Conference Finals.
I think you would be disappointed then. This team doesn't have the toughness to get that far. Don't get me wrong, I want to at least get to the WC Finals also and would be stoked if we did get there.
 
Playoffs!? Are u kidding me!? Playoffs!?
I'm talking about finals if we stay healthy!
And I'm not even looking through rose colored glasses
 
So do you hold is as a non-factor that Camby is there, or do you think there is any potential improvement to the roster in having Oden out there for 82 games (as your forecast appears to be assuming that we'd win 53 wins with a healthy Oden for 82 games). I would think having a DPOY top 20 frontcourt player to play the off-minutes between Oden and LMA, it would add a large increase over those last 82 games or the pace we were on in those first 21 games last season.

A healthy Joel was no slouch either, though; I see Camby minus Joel as a net-even on defense for the big guys. The best way for the Blazers to beat that 53 game minimum (my expectations with no optimism or room for improvement thrown in) is for Oden to be on the court and productive for 32-36 minutes a game, for at least 60 games. If he can do that, the sky is the limit.
 
I think you would be disappointed then. This team doesn't have the toughness to get that far. Don't get me wrong, I want to at least get to the WC Finals also and would be stoked if we did get there.

I don't think they're lacking in "toughness." They faced all sorts of adversity last season and still won 50 games, attesting to their mental toughness. If by "toughness" you mean rebounding and defense, they've been one of the best rebounding teams in the league the past two seasons and, when Oden was healthy last year, they were among the better defensive teams.
 
I think you would be disappointed then. This team doesn't have the toughness to get that far. Don't get me wrong, I want to at least get to the WC Finals also and would be stoked if we did get there.

Your nick name should Be BlazerCynic or BlazerPessimist, not BlazerBeliever!!
 

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