league/union question (1 Viewer)

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handiman

handiman

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If the season gets cancelled, is there anything to stop the league and owners from simply starting from scratch next year and saying to hell with the players' union? It should be a strong draft class coming up, given how few people left early last year with the lockout uncertainty...

If the union decertifies, does that change anything for the worse in that respect?

You have to figure, a large percentage of the players would cross the picket line as soon as they realized the owners had called their bluff (and that their union leadership is a tired, misdirected lot), and most of the hold-outs would be beyond their life cycle within a couple of draft classes, anyway.

Rookies are just happy to be getting a paycheck and wouldn't pose much a hurdle in drafting a new CBA...
 
The owners have to respect the union so long as they remain so and cannot start a new league. If the union decertifies, then the owners will have to go to court and try and have the contracts declared void. Maybe a judge will and maybe not. Only if the contracts are declared invalid can the owners then create a new league with their own rules.
 
Makes sense. So, it all hinges on whether the contracts are voided?
 
If that happens, I already posted that attendance would be about 4000 per game leaguewide. With similar TV ratings. The league would go bankrupt and owners would lose about $350M each on average.

But upon further reflection, I'll amend that to about 1500 per game.
 
Why? I think the average fan is turned off by the spoiled brat perception of most players and would be happy to see some fresh faces. Besides, the league is well known to be a star-making, PR machine. (Just ask Barkley.) It wouldn't take them much time to reproduce the visibility and familiarity of the current crop of players.
 
If I lived in PDX, I'd go to replacement player games, if for no other reason than to make a statement to the entitlement idiots who just scuttled the season.
 
BBert said:
If I lived in PDX, I'd go to replacement player games, if for no other reason than to make a statement to the entitlement idiots who just scuttled the season.
Click to expand...

+1, I'll do the drive from Bend
 
BBert said:
If I lived in PDX, I'd go to replacement player games, if for no other reason than to make a statement to the entitlement idiots who just scuttled the season.
Click to expand...

But would you pay $100 a ticket? I doubt many would. TV ratings would be way down, the owners would lose billions of dollars of revenue.
 
handiman said:
Why? I think the average fan is turned off by the spoiled brat perception of most players and would be happy to see some fresh faces. Besides, the league is well known to be a star-making, PR machine. (Just ask Barkley.) It wouldn't take them much time to reproduce the visibility and familiarity of the current crop of players.
Click to expand...

It's called D-League. Pretty much the best players who are a cut below NBA.
 
Draco said:
But would you pay $100 a ticket? I doubt many would. TV ratings would be way down, the owners would lose billions of dollars of revenue.
Click to expand...
Nope. Sadly, I'm not part of the 1%.
 
Denny Crane said:
It's called D-League. Pretty much the best players who are a cut below NBA.
Click to expand...
I very much doubt that. The first year's draft class would probably put it a cut above the d-league, and a year later would far exceed it, especially with all the current players that would surely cross the picket line.
 
jlprk said:
But upon further reflection, I'll amend that to about 1500 per game.
Click to expand...

handiman said:
Why?
Click to expand...

Well, that's about what the D-League averages. Those teams are in smaller towns, so maybe I should boost my estimate to 2000. 3000 for the big games. Maybe we'd hit 4000 if the Blazers made the Finals. But only if Roy came back and had a great quarter.
 
jlprk said:
Well, that's about what the D-League averages.
Click to expand...
You're making the same assumption Denny Crane is -- that the level of play and fan interest would mirror that of the d-league -- but I see no support for that position.
 
Who wants to watch d league players turn the ball over every 3 possessions and jack up 30 3 pointers a game?

I know i dont
 
handiman said:
You're making the same assumption Denny Crane is -- that the level of play and fan interest would mirror that of the d-league -- but I see no support for that position.
Click to expand...

It would be hard to accept Jannero Pargo as the NBA MVP knowing that LeBron isn't playing.
 
Denny Crane said:
It would be hard to accept Jannero Pargo as the NBA MVP knowing that LeBron isn't playing.
Click to expand...

Actually, knowing that Lebron isn't playing would make it easier to accept almost anything.
I'd happily make that tradeoff.

barfo
 
super mecha said:
Who wants to watch d league players turn the ball over every 3 possessions and jack up 30 3 pointers a game?

I know i dont
Click to expand...

So, nobody but the 450 current NBA players know how to play basketball? Somehow I find that difficult to believe.

barfo
 
barfo said:
So, nobody but the 450 current NBA players know how to play basketball? Somehow I find that difficult to believe.

barfo
Click to expand...

Nobody but the current 450 made the NBA. There might be a couple dozen Joel Freeland types who might make the top 450.
 
Denny Crane said:
Nobody but the current 450 made the NBA. There might be a couple dozen Joel Freeland types who might make the top 450.
Click to expand...

Who cares? What's special about the top 450? Is that some sort of magical cutoff?

Does no one watch basketball in Europe because they don't have the top 450? Does no one watch college ball?

barfo
 
barfo said:
Who cares? What's special about the top 450? Is that some sort of magical cutoff?

Does no one watch basketball in Europe because they don't have the top 450? Does no one watch college ball?

barfo
Click to expand...

Beyond the first 450, the next best players are D League.

I doubt all the foreign leagues combined do $1B in revenue.
 
Denny Crane said:
Beyond the first 450, the next best players are D League.
Click to expand...

Um, I don't think so. For one, D-league salary is capped at something ridiculously low.
Its contracts, while paltry in comparison to that of NBA players, are guaranteed, unlike many other minor leagues.

Average NBA D-League Salary
According to a 2007 report by National Public Radio, the average NBA D-League salary ranges from $12,000 to $24,000 a season. The report also stated that while NBA players are paid $100 a day for expenses when they are traveling to and from road games, NBA D-League players are paid only $30.00.

Comparison to American Basketball Association
The American Basketball Association (ABA) is a 62 team independent minor league basketball association in the United States. The league pays players approximately $10,000 per season on average. However, according to "Shunpiking" magazine, few ABA teams play all of their 36 regularly scheduled season games. ABA contracts are not guaranteed.

Comparison to Premier Basketball League
The Premier Basketball League (PBL) founded in 2008, is another fledgling minor league basketball association in the U.S. The "Maryland Gazette" reported in January of 2008 that players earn anywhere from between $300 and $700 per week during the 12 week PBL regular season. Unlike the NBA D-League, no PBL contracts are guaranteed.



Read more: NBDL Average Salary | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/about_5560902_nbdl-average-salary.html#ixzz1dseWKJSy
Click to expand...

For another, D-Leaguers function as a bastardized minor league for the NBA. The quality of players in Europe is much, MUCH higher, even among Americans who played college BB. Not just because they're paid a lot more, but b/c the stigma of the DL is such that veterans don't generally go there. Josh Childress didn't say "Eff you, ATL...I'm going to play in Charleston/Goose-Creek!"
 
NBA "Dream Teams" routinely destroy opponents in International play.

An NBA team is effectively a collection of all-star players from at least a decade of college seasons.

Seriously, the kind of players we'd see in the NBA minus the 452 ( to be exact) who played last year would be Linton Johnson III.

European teams might sign an occasional NBA player at a high salary, but no way could they sustain a $60M payroll. It's a marketing gimmick only.
 
Here's the 2010-11 Euroleague All-Star Team

Here's the 2010-11 D-League All-Star team.

Joe Alexander, Chris Johnson, Curtis Stinson, Trey Johnson, Ivan Johnson are better than Diamantidis, Big Sofo, JC Navarro, San Emetrio and Mike Batiste?
 
The Best NBA "Dream Team" since the Original almost lost to Rudy Fernandez, a 17y/o PG and other Spaniards you never heard of in the Gold Medal game. But we're not talking about that. You said that the next best players in the world after the NBA were in the DLeague, and I highly disagree.

Juan Carlos Navarro, for instance. He may not be a starting-caliber NBA PG anymore, but he didn't sign up with the Bakersfield Flash, he went to Spain. He's a better PG than anyone in the DL.

As for your "take out the best 452 and see who plays" game...I'd take Jasikevicus or Diamantidis over any guard in the DLeague. I'd take Sofo over Chris Johnson, and I'd take Sergio Llull over any wing. Even Jeremy Pargo would crush D-Leaguers.

The D-League encourages a fast-paced, little-D-played, jack-up-shots game. It's done a good job of identifying athletic guys who can shoot and promoting them to the NBA.
 
If the NBA started back up without the current 450 players it would still be very exciting. There would be new stars such as the undrafted Wesley Matthews from 2 years ago that we'd instantly find exciting. I believe the NBA makes the stars with their hyped TV exposure, team rivalries, and overall media coverage. If you put any 12 scrubs in a Lakers uniforms I would be pumped to see a Portland team crush them. I'd DVR the game and yell at the screen jump up and down and be happy for days. I would play with the trade machine to find a way to snag the great John Burks from the Magic without giving up Rudolph Spangenie.

We'd still be vehemently arguing here on the time to fire Nate!
 
What makes the NBA compelling is the continuity. New players join and old ones retire, but a team's roster doesn't wholly change from one season to the next. Certainly not the whole league.

The NFL played a few weeks in '87 with scab players. It was an immediate financial hit of 20% to the league and it likely would have declined further once the novelty wore off.
 
Those who say they will put as much money and time into watching a scab NBA of D-Leaguers will learn otherwise. There will be fewer exciting plays, action will unfold more slowly, etc.

10 years later the league will have rebuilt, but meanwhile the league's revenue loss will be in the billions. Any former owners who in 2011 were poorer than Paul Allen will now be on welfare or hot dog vendors.
 
jlprk said:
Those who say they will put as much money and time into watching a scab NBA of D-Leaguers will learn otherwise. There will be fewer exciting plays, action will unfold more slowly, etc.

10 years later the league will have rebuilt, but meanwhile the league's revenue loss will be in the billions. Any former owners who in 2011 were poorer than Paul Allen will now be on welfare or hot dog vendors.
Click to expand...

I don't buy this argument. The best players (in the US, at least) will still want to play in the NBA. Maybe a few superstars who have already made their nut will retire instead of taking a pay cut, but are we really going to be so much worse off without Kobe and LeBron?

The career of an NBA player is so short that even if you took the top 450 out right now and shot them, the league could replenish itself in much less than 10 years.

barfo
 
With NFL scab players, there was a feeling (as I recall) of lack of permanence. The real players were out there, lurking, and would be back at any time.

If there was a similar sense with the NBA, I think that the league would have some serious problems.

If there was a more serious break with the status quo--lots of players went to form their own league, or went to play overseas, or the owners won a massive series of court victories--then I think the actual quality of play would not be a big factor.

After all, is the NBA more or less popular in 2011 than it was in, say, 2001? Are the players and teams better in 2011 than they were in in 2001? Do we even know the answer to that second question? I doubt it.

After a few years of entirely new players, it would be an academic exercise to determine whether the new batch of players were as good or better than the 2011 version. And it would be a lot of fun arguing about on in interwebz. :)

Ed O.
 
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