Nate and Second Half Adjustments

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PapaG

PapaG

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This came up in the Batum thread, and it got me curious to find some stats. Multiple posters bemoaned Nate's lack of in-game adjustments, so I decided to try and find out the truth.

Here is Portland's second-half average scoring margin this season, along with their NBA rank through 12 games

2011-12 +5.5 (2nd)

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-2nd-half-margin

So, at least this year, it appears that somebody is making some second half adjustments. For 2010, the Blazers were at -0.3, which is basically middle of the pack.
 
Since the site says our 1st half margin is -2.6, the change from half to half is +8.1. I can think of 2 reasons now and maybe more later.

The cause might be that we dig a hole in the 1st half and we're a better team than that, so our 1st half weakness forces us to be a strong 2nd half team.

In a compressed season, players are tired in the second half of each game. Since we supposedly have better depth than the average team, that depth (even if it hasn't improved from last season) should provide us with more late-game margin this year than last year.
 
My favorite thing about threads like these, which fly directly in the face of board CW, is how often they are ignored by those who criticize the coach.
 
I've noticed the defense really picks up in the second half, but it's usually in spurts. It's usually when they put Batum on the ballhandler, or whoever, and they start pressuring the ball up front. I noticed in the Miami game that that's how Miami plays defense like for all 48 minutes - swarming, fast rotations, high energy. Too bad we can't have that energy when we're not down by 15, and too bad we don't have a freak of nature as a free safety (James), but still it looks like just a question of energy at times.
 
Yep they are the best lottery team in the league. Have stats that should have us top 4 in the west.
 
Nice work, PapaG. That's a good job of actually investigating a specific claim to see whether it bears out in reality or not.
 
OdenHoF said:
I've noticed the defense really picks up in the second half, but it's usually in spurts. It's usually when they put Batum on the ballhandler, or whoever, and they start pressuring the ball up front. I noticed in the Miami game that that's how Miami plays defense like for all 48 minutes - swarming, fast rotations, high energy. Too bad we can't have that energy when we're not down by 15, and too bad we don't have a freak of nature as a free safety (James), but still it looks like just a question of energy at times.
Click to expand...

It might help if our starters aren't in the game when we're up 20 with 4 minutes left in the game.
 
What are "Nate" and "second half adjustments"? I've never heard those two things in the same sentence before....
 
AmirIcon said:
It might help if our starters aren't in the game when we're up 20 with 4 minutes left in the game.
Click to expand...

Somebody better get on Scotty Brooks' case, then, because he had Westbrook and Durant still in this game up by 14 points with :46 left! :MARIS61:

http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=320223025&period=4

Uh oh! Erik Spoelstra should be fired for keeping in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade with the Heat up 14 against the Blazers with 3 minutes left in the game! He didn't even pull them when they were up 16 with under a minute left. Wut a dumdum he is!

http://espn.go.com/nba/playbyplay?gameId=320301022&period=4
 
Natebishop3 said:
What are "Nate" and "second half adjustments"? I've never heard those two things in the same sentence before....
Click to expand...

It's more important for me to know what you think about it than what any stats may show us.

What's your gut telling you about Nate's mindset today?
 
PapaG said:
It's more important for me to know what you think about it than what any stats may show us.

What's your gut telling you about Nate's mindset today?
Click to expand...

I think he's hoping that some internet guy will do him a solid and protect his honor ;)
 
PapaG said:
My favorite thing about threads like these, which fly directly in the face of board CW, is how often they are ignored by those who criticize the coach.
Click to expand...

They are ignored b\c these stats when looked\offered "solely" as evidence as you like to present them are full of shit...

According to all your statistics POR should be one of the better NBA teams and they clearly aren't....That one pesky statistic (W\L record) keeps fucking things up, doesn't it? Maybe Allen should take your stats and inquire to the NBA why he doesn't have a better record? I am sure David Stern would make amends.....
 
Blaze01 said:
They are ignored b\c these stats when looked\offered "solely" as evidence as you like to present them are full of shit...

According to all your statistics POR should be one of the better NBA teams and they clearly aren't....That one pesky statistic (W\L record) keeps fucking things up, doesn't it? Maybe Allen should take your stats and inquire to the NBA why he doesn't have a better record? I am sure David Stern would make amends.....
Click to expand...

Actually, second-half scoring margin is a pretty good measurement for assessing if a coach makes adjustments during a game.

W/L doesn't really factor into that argument. A winning coach can be bad at in-game adjustments, and a bad coach can be great at it.

That said, of the Top 14 teams on the list, every single one except Portland is in the playoffs right now.

1 Portland +4.3 -1.0 +4.0 +7.0 +1.0 -0.4
2 Chicago +3.5 +13.7 +21.0 +5.0 +2.3 +4.2
3 Indiana +3.4 -3.3 -21.0 +4.1 +2.8 -1.4
4 Boston +2.8 +3.3 +5.0 +4.6 0.0 +2.7
5 Minnesota +2.7 -1.0 0.0 +2.1 +3.4 -2.8
6 Philadelphia +2.7 0.0 -8.0 +4.2 +0.7 +0.3
7 Miami +1.9 +3.3 +2.0 +5.9 -1.6 +2.4
8 San Antonio +1.5 +6.7 -1.0 +7.6 -3.6 +2.2
9 Memphis +1.5 +13.7 +18.0 +4.2 -1.8 +2.9
10 LA Lakers +1.1 +4.0 -2.0 +3.3 -1.2 +1.0
11 Atlanta +1.0 +8.3 +1.0 +2.7 -0.5 -0.8
12 Orlando +1.0 +2.7 -1.0 0.0 +2.0 +2.0
13 New York +0.8 +4.7 -5.0 +0.9 +0.5 -0.2
14 Okla City +0.7

So, you can have your half-assed opinion, based on pretty much nothing, or you can try to use data to support your argument. If anything, Nate needs to do a better job coaching in the first-half, and stop relying on adjustments at half-time.
 
PapaG said:
If anything, Nate needs to do a better job coaching in the first-half, and stop relying on adjustments at half-time.
Click to expand...

I think that there's some truth to that. So many games this year have been lost by the team coming out flat and getting hit hard in the first quarter. I don't know if it's coaching or just something weird in the mental makeup of this team. Maybe hitting them in the butt with a cattle prod as they head out onto the court?

Nice analysis.
 
Minstrel said:
Nice work, PapaG. That's a good job of actually investigating a specific claim to see whether it bears out in reality or not.
Click to expand...

In what way can you possibly claim that his trivial little statistic proves that McMillan is good at making adjustments? Obviously, it only proves how desperately we are forced to make comebacks in vain, after opponents have thrashed us so hard that they ease up in the 2nd half and cruise to victory, giving away pity points.

You are a sucker for Papa's minimalist stats.
 
You could take this same stat and argue that Nate is lousy at getting teams prepared for games. After all, if we do so well in second halves and are still losing, it must be bad first halves that kill the team.

Which kind of goes with the whole "he's lost the team" argument. Guys don't show up focused and believing in the system. They yawn at the same old "scrap" line. Maybe it's only pride, not great coaching, that wakes them up at half time to the realization that they are getting embarrassed.
 
So, you can have your half-assed opinion, based on pretty much nothing, or you can try to use data to support your argument. If anything, Nate needs to do a better job coaching in the first-half, and stop relying on adjustments at half-time.
Click to expand...

Your data is for shit....POR ranks 1st in 2nd half scoring margin...bfd....but sits outside the playoffs...You use this as proof\evidence that Nate is a good 2nd half coach...therefore a good coach...See! Suck it Nate haters! and completely ignore that um...hmm...maybe there could be other factors? Maybe other teams get up on POR and slack off a little?

So does Nate get a pass for shitty coaching in the 1st half. You can't have it both ways....Or maybe you'll show me data about how POR ranks among the best at 1st half scoring margin teams as well...which begs the question of that pesky W\L record, that apparently to you is of no\minor concern...Nobody cares about that, right? Oh and OKC must really suck or something, lucky to make the playoffs....

You are like the scientist that looks around bewildered while the cautastophic earthquake destroys everything around him and mumbles "but the data said this wasn't supposed to happen"...

Look data is important, but it just one aspect of judging a team's performance, and not the definitive proof that you would have people believe...
 
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mook said:
You could take this same stat and argue that Nate is lousy at getting teams prepared for games. After all, if we do so well in second halves and are still losing, it must be bad first halves that kill the team.

Which kind of goes with the whole "he's lost the team" argument. Guys don't show up focused and believing in the system. They yawn at the same old "scrap" line. Maybe it's only pride, not great coaching, that wakes them up at half time to the realization that they are getting embarrassed.
Click to expand...

Good point! :)

Originally Posted by PapaG
If anything, Nate needs to do a better job coaching in the first-half, and stop relying on adjustments at half-time.
Click to expand...

Then again, Portland is 16th in first-half margin at +0.1. Not great, but better than Minnesota, Boston, Milwaukee, and Indiana.

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/average-1st-half-margin
 
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Blaze01 said:
Your data is for shit....POR ranks 1st in 2nd half scoring margin...bfd....but sits outside the playoffs...You use this as proof\evidence that Nate is a good 2nd half coach...therefore a good coach...See! Suck it Nate haters! and completely ignore that um...hmm...maybe there could be other factors? Maybe other teams get up on POR and slack off a little?

So does Nate get a pass for shitty coaching in the 1st half. You can't have it both ways....Or maybe you'll show me data about how POR ranks among the best at 1st half scoring margin teams as well...which begs the question of that pesky W\L record, that apparently to you is of no\minor concern...Nobody cares about that, right? Oh and OKC must really suck or something, lucky to make the playoffs....

You are like the scientist that looks around bewildered while the cautastophic earthquake destroys everything around him and mumbles "but the data said this wasn't supposed to happen"...

Look data is important, but it just one aspect of judging a team's performance, and not the definitive proof that you would have people believe...
Click to expand...

I never said Nate was a good coach. I said that the perception of him not making adjustments during games seems to be contradicted by actual on-court data. I'm not looking to prove anything, other than sometimes conventional wisdom isn't as solid as it's believed to be by the masses.

EDIT - I included first half data in my post to mook before I read your post.
 
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Blaze01 said:
That...is the essence of the disagreement...

atd
Click to expand...

I think it offers a solid case. You don't. No big deal, but I do disagree with the data being "for shit".

If anything, the data gives me hope that the team can go on a run, because everything about the Blazers says they should be a playoff team, except for their W/L, and they're not that far out of things.

Beating Minnesota, or at least playing them to the end, is a necessity if the team is going to make a run.
 
Now you're retreating from your sarcasm earlier in the thead.
 
jlprk said:
In what way can you possibly claim that his trivial little statistic proves that McMillan is good at making adjustments? Obviously, it only proves how desperately we are forced to make comebacks in vain, after opponents have thrashed us so hard that they ease up in the 2nd half and cruise to victory, giving away pity points.

You are a sucker for Papa's minimalist stats.
Click to expand...

I enjoy your shtick, you bring something weird to the forum.
 
Hmm, the season was 3 weeks old. So we're all arguing over obsolete 2nd-half point margins which are much worse now.

You were still kicking hard yesterday in Post numbers 11 and 12.

Unless there is a major change and we win more games, the 2nd half margin will deteriorate more, as averaged into the season's good staft.
 
Minstrel said:
I enjoy your shtick, you bring something weird to the forum.
Click to expand...

If you look over the thread, you'll see that you were in the minority, not me as you infer.
 
jlprk said:
Hmm, the season was 3 weeks old. So we're all arguing over obsolete 2nd-half point margins which are much worse now.
Click to expand...

Much worse? Still #1 in the NBA in that category. Which I posted today in this thread.

You were still kicking hard yesterday in Post numbers 11 and 12.
Click to expand...

That was today, grandpa. Don't forget the Metamucil tonight!

Unless there is a major change and we win more games, the 2nd half margin will deteriorate more, as averaged into the season's good staft.
Click to expand...

This makes no sense. It's OK, though, because I'm sure you'll use your TI handheld and punch in some data.
 
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