If the 2013 draft was repicked today...

Its obviously very early with that class but yeah it hasn't lived up to expectations yet. Wiggins is a stud; but so much of that class is hurt. We are through one and a third seasons but Parker, Embiid, Gordon, Exum, Smart, Randle, have all had season ending or major type of injuries. Thats 6 of the top 7 picks.

Still could ultimately be a great class though; hell CJ was a 4 year player and did nothing his first two years. That 2014 class also has Jordan Clarkson, Nikola Jokic, Clint Capela, Rodney Hood, Mitch McGary, Gary Harris, Jusuf Nurkic, TJ Warren, Zach LaVine, Doug McDermott, Elfrid Payton, our Noah Vonleh and the still in Europe Dario Saric.

 

Maybe management shouldn't value them based on where they were selected, but the fans and media sure will. We constantly lament who we should have taken and how our guy performed.


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Nice research. That list of players shows it was pretty deep. Basically you did not need to be in the lottery to get a good player. No need to tank, that's for sure. Hell the #1 pick was traded for Kevin Love. So even though it was deep, it was not top heavy.

 

Good discussion here

 

Don't forget: Matthew Dellavedova went undrafted in 2013. So did Seth Curry.

 

And Robert Covington. And Dewayne Dedmon.

 

Yeah thats a good point. The draft was supposed to be absolutely stacked at the top of the lottery. Turns out there are a lot of interesting players later in the first round and into the second.

 

I like otto porter.


I think that team needs better coaching though.

 

I heard he was playing pretty well, but he still can't shoot past 3 feet.
That was my problem with him out of college, he could fill up the stat sheets, but he could not hit a wide open mid range shot. Let alone a 3ptr. Looking at his stats, he has not improved (28% this year 3-10 ft, 33%10-16 ft) Not sure that is coaching. Just another great athlete who never learned to shoot.

 

If the Sixers offered Noel for CJ (which they wouldn't), I would pause only long enough to thank CJ for his service.

(And I say this as someone whose fave current Blazer is probably CJ.)

 

Gobert would be the clear-cut #1 pick.

He changes the game on the defensive end. As a rookie the Jazz went from the bottom half to a top-3 defense when they inserted Rudy into the starting lineup. He's a defensive anchor in the mold of Dikembe.

 

CJ would be a top 5 and Crabbe would be top 10. Not sure where, but in hindsight, it was a very good draft for Olshey.

 

Looking at it from a 'total contribution' perspective, here's the 2013 draft sorted by Win-Share (minimum 82 games played):
- 11.8, Mason Plumlee
- 11.0, Rudy Gobert
- 9.5, Giannis Antetokounmpo
- 9.3, Steve Adams
- 8.7, Gorgui Dieng
- 8.6, Cody Zeller
- 8.3, Kelly Olynyk
- 7.0, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- 6.4, Matthew Dellavedova
- 5.9, Victor Oladipo
- 4.9 CJ McCollum
- 4.8, Alex Len
- 4.6, Tony Snell
- 4.4, Trey Burke
- 4.4, Andre Roberson
- 4.2, Nerlens Noel
- 4.2, Otto Porter
- 4.1, Robert Covington

Looking at it from an 'efficiency' perspective, here's the 2013 draft sorted by PER (minimum 82 games played):
- 19.6, Rudy Gobert
- 18.0, Mason Plumlee
- 16.8, Shabazz Muhammad
- 16.7, Gorgui Dieng
- 16.1, Jeff Withey
- 15.8, Kelly Olynyk
- 14.8, Michael Carter-Williams
- 14.7, Victor Oladipo
- 14.7, CJ McCollum
- 14.4, Nerlens Noel
- 14.4, Mike Muscalla
- 14.0, Robert Covington
- 13.9, Cody Zeller
- 13.8, Giannis Antetokounmpo
- 13.6, Dennis Schoder
- 13.1, Steve Adams
- 13.0, Alex Len
- 12.9, Trey Burke

Combining these two metrics give us:
1. Rudy Gobert
1. Mason Plumlee
3. Gorgui Dieng
4. Kelly Olynyk
5. Giannis Antetokounmpo
6. Victor Oladipo
7. Cody Zeller
8. Steve Adams
8. CJ McCollum
10. Shabazz Muhammad
11. Nerlens Noel
11. Jeff Withey
13. Alex Len
14. Robert Covington
15. Trey Burke
16. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
17. Michael Carter-Williams
17. Matthew Dellavedova
19. Otto Porter
20. Tim Hardaway Jr.
20. Mike Muscala
29. Allen Crabbe
31. Ben McLemore
34. Anthony Bennett (Out of 34 players that year that have played at least 82 games.)

 

42n8Bounce's charts reveal how biased PER is to big men. Also, given how high Plumdog is ranked, it reveals that it doesn't factor for defense much at all (which makes it all the more amazing that Gobert is #1).

Okay, Mr (I'm assuming) Bounce: wanna do that with RPM?

 

Yes, it's 'Mr. Bounce'.

I've never played with RPM before. Is it readily published by any site? It looks like ESPN doesn't display it in their free stats section.

Keep in mind, the above stats are career stats for those players. I wouldn't knock what Plumlee has done so far in his career. He's produced. What's difficult to capture in these metrics is 'Potential' or 'Upside'. McCollum is listed as #8, but clearly is on an upswing in his career. If he stays healthy and continues to produce at the same rate, he'll shoot up this chart quickly. Similar with Allen Crabbe. But until they've actually done it on the court, it's only potential.

 

Just keep in the back of your mind: Oladipo has been badly mismanaged during his NBA stint.

They tried to turn him into a PG since the beginning of his rookie summer league - he hadn't played PG before that. This type of thing basically never works, and it hasn't for VO. Then, they realized it wasn't working after a year and drafted a PG. Now VO doesn't even start.

In a re-draft, I assume he'd be groomed more properly, so I would rate him higher than some.

 

D69 had Gobert and the Greek Freak in his Top 7 for that year. His Draft prognostications have been ridiculously accurate in projecting players.