2019 Offseason Storylines 1: Mario Hezonja

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Wizard Mentor

Wizard Mentor

Wizard Mentor
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I wanted to start a series of threads on Storylines going into the season. Mostly, I would like them centered around specific players.

Note: Currently, there are still 2 roster spots available.

Super Mario:
There is currently one PG on the roster, and his minutes should probably be managed. So, who's going to run the team when Lillard is not in?
  1. Ant
  2. Sign a PG and stick him in the rotation
  3. Mario
My opinions and hopes for Ant are through the roof! However, he's simply not a PG - He hasn't played point since middle school. Yes, he can learn. Eventually, he'll likely surpass CJ in his playmaking ability, but not soon enough, and CJ, frankly, isn't good enough anyway.

It's very possible that we sign or trade for a PG, but will a late-in-free-agency vet min PG make the rotation? Unlikely.

That leaves Mario, either taking on the ET role, or sharing point responsibilities with Ant. Like many from Europe, Mario is a very skilled passer, but his ast/to ratio suggests he is an "undisciplined" one.

Mario was the 5th overall pick of the 2015 draft. Everyone recognized his potential. However, that potential has been unrealized. He thrived in neither of his first two situations. However, he is close to Nurk and his family which should increase his comfort level.

Questions/Storylines:
  • The Blazers have worked wonders in their reclamation projects. Will that continue with Hezonja? Neil has suggested that he'll be in the rotation, but it's not his call. Is he good enough to make the rotation (and have the s2 fan base happy about it)?
  • If so, how will he do in the facilitator role off the bench?
  • Will he be on the team in 3 years?

These are the things I'll be looking for throughout the next season. Are there other things I should be looking for relating to Hezonja? How will it all shake out?
 
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I agree that it will likely take Ant few years to be a backup PG, if at all.

If I were king, I would wait through preseason and see how Hezonja and/or Bazemore handled the pseudo PG role that ET had. I have see a lot of footage where both seem more than capable of initiating the offense on a limited basis. If one or both of them look capable, then you go with it. If either could handle it, then you could have any combination of Dame, CJ, Ant or Hood at the 1 and 2 spots with them.

If Hezonja and Bazemore don't seem to be working in preseason, then you see what you can find for a backup PG.

The truth is that if you need a journeyman PG to make your bench unit work, then you are probably in trouble anyway. But, if Hezonja or Baze could do it, then you don't lose anything.
 
I have been advocating for another PG on the roster especially in case of an injury. However I am having second thoughts. Would he ever play unless he is a good shooter?

Our backup PG's are more of the "setting up the offense" vs "running the offense" type players. They need good handles but more importantly they need to be able to shoot. Seth Curry, Napier, Mo Williams all did well in Terry's system. The Wade Baldwin's....... not so much.

So I think the key is having 3 good ball handlers in the game at once. Ant, Hood and Mario should be good as long as they can quickly get the ball up the court and into the offense. Also having a 4th shooter at PF will help spread the floor.
 
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Pinwheel1 said:
So I think the key is having 3 good ball handlers in the game at once. Ant, Hood and Mario should be good as long as they can quickly get the ball up the court and into the offense. Also having a 4th shooter at PF will help spread the floor.
Click to expand...

And you have the one with the worst defender bring the ball up the court. Like Schrempf did for UW (aging myself).
 
twobullz said:
watching that video, he looks like he moves like Jake did for one month of the season with backdoor cuts, but also plays defense, can handle the rock and shoot. Looks like a great upgrade.
Click to expand...
Yeah, he's a great ball handler and playmaker when with 1 to 1 AST:TOV ratio. Wait, thats not good.

Hes a career 32% 3pt shooter and shoot 27% from 3 last year. What do you mean "he can shoot"?
 
Reep said:
The truth is that if you need a journeyman PG to make your bench unit work, then you are probably in trouble anyway.
Click to expand...
Nah...it just means the roster was incomplete. The prior absence of a PG doesn't invalidate the talent at the other positions.
 
BonesJones said:
Yeah, he's a great ball handler and playmaker when with 1 to 1 AST:TOV ratio. Wait, thats not good.

Hes a career 32% 3pt shooter and shoot 27% from 3 last year. What do you mean "he can shoot"?
Click to expand...
He shot .395 in 13-14 and .377 the next year at FC Barcelona.
It's very possible that he just hasn't been comfortable in the NBA, yet.

We'll see, but I think there is reason for optimism. Mediocre shooters become better when they join the Blazers. It's very possible he returns to his earlier form.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
He shot .395 in 13-14 and .377 the next year at FC Barcelona.
It's very possible that he just hasn't been comfortable in the NBA, yet.

We'll see, but I think there is reason for optimism. Mediocre shooters become better when they join the Blazers. It's very possible he returns to his earlier form.
Click to expand...
Shorter 3pt line against easier competition. Swanigan shot 40%+ in college his Sophomore year. I mean, maybe, but Layman is just as likely due for improvement. I can't see how someone could list shooting as a reason to pick Hezonja over Layman.
 
BonesJones said:
Shorter 3pt line against easier competition. Swanigan shot 40%+ in college his Sophomore year. I mean, maybe, but Layman is just as likely due for improvement. I can't see how someone could list shooting as a reason to pick Hezonja over Layman.
Click to expand...
Yet no matter, his career percentage is better then Layman's. He passes better, He plays defense better. His FT shooting numbers are 10% higher then Laymen's. So yes for his career he shoots better then Jake.
 
BonesJones said:
Yeah, he's a great ball handler and playmaker when with 1 to 1 AST:TOV ratio. Wait, thats not good.
Click to expand...

So your opinion is Mario will not be an upgrade at forward in terms of ball handling and passing? Forget about his previous stats, in your opinion you don't see anything in his game to suggest he possesses those tools...again not as a PG, but for a forward.
 
twobullz said:
Yet no matter, his career percentage is better then Layman's. He passes better, He plays defense better. His FT shooting numbers are 10% higher then Laymen's. So yes for his career he shoots better then Jake.
Click to expand...
Except Layman hasn't gotten much of an opportunity at all. Hezonja has had 4 years to prove he's better than a 32% 3pt shooter (which he has not). Laymans 3pt% is more likely to see a sizeable uptick due to the benefit of increased opportunity and role.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
So your opinion is Mario will not be an upgrade at forward in terms of ball handling and passing? Forget about his previous stats, in your opinion you don't see anything in his game to suggest he possesses those tools...again not as a PG, but for a forward.
Click to expand...
I'm not saying that, I'm saying I think Blazer fans are overrating that part of his game.
 
BonesJones said:
Except Layman hasn't gotten much of an opportunity at all. Hezonja has had 4 years to prove he's better than a 32% 3pt shooter (which he has not). Laymans 3pt% is more likely to see a sizeable uptick due to the benefit of increased opportunity and role.
Click to expand...

He is a year younger then Layman and Layman played 4 years of college ball . You are saying Layman is likely to see a uptick based on increased opportunity. Can't you say the same about Hezonja should expect a uptick based on playing with better teammates? Plus the fact he is better then Jake in every category
 
twobullz said:
He is a year younger then Layman. You are saying Layman is likely to see a uptick based on increased opportunity. Can't you say the same about Hezonja should expect a uptick based on playing with better teammates? Plus the fact he is better then Jake in every category
Click to expand...
People overrate playing with good teammates in regards to shooting. He might get a slight uptick in open catch and shoot but the dude shot 27% last year.

Layman showed that, when he got consistent minutes, that he could really shoot the ball. Then he starts getting his minutes yanked around and starts getting yanked out for missing a single three (while Moe and Aminu get a very long leash) and his confidence tanks. In a consistent role with a longer leash, he'll be a good 3pt shooter. That's much more of a factor than "Good teammates might make the ball go in for Hezonja more often and he'll be a 35% 3pt shooter instead of a 27% shooter"... If you thought Jake was a bad shooter last year, that's what Hezonja has consistently been for years. Never shot 35% or above even though he's had the chance to.

Also, Jake is much better moving off the ball, which is really valuable in regards to the other guys on this roster.
 
BonesJones said:
I'm not saying that, I'm saying I think Blazer fans are overrating that part of his game.
Click to expand...

Or saying that the forwards we lost this summer (Aminu, Hark, and Jake) were not very good at passing and ball handling.
I can't say I know for certain, but he seems to be an upgrade at those two particular skills. I agree Jake was a pretty good shooter, but over all Mario appears to be a better all around player. Time will tell.
 
BonesJones said:
People overrate playing with good teammates in regards to shooting. He might get a slight uptick in open catch and shoot but the dude shot 27% last year.

Layman showed that, when he got consistent minutes, that he could really shoot the ball. Then he starts getting his minutes yanked around and starts getting yanked out for missing a single three (while Moe and Aminu get a very long leash) and his confidence tanks. In a consistent role with a longer leash, he'll be a good 3pt shooter. That's much more of a factor than "Good teammates might make the ball go in for Hezonja more often and he'll be a 35% 3pt shooter instead of a 27% shooter"... If you thought Jake was a bad shooter last year, that's what Hezonja has consistently been for years. Never shot 35% or above even though he's had the chance to.

Also, Jake is much better moving off the ball, which is really valuable in regards to the other guys on this roster.
Click to expand...

He also shot nearly 35% one season. So he has the ability to shoot better, if he gets open shots I am guessing.

As for Jake, dude was a major liability on defense. So he had the opportunity to earn more minutes but was such a liability on defense he did not take advantage of the opportunity. Jake had a good month or two, then once the league had video on him he showed he was not a everyday player. Teams just learned to attack him in the pick and roll until the Blazers were forced to take him off the court. Plus he stopped getting the back door and could not hit shots. As for Moe and Chief they played both end of the court and rebounded something else that Hezonja does better then Jake.
 
BonesJones said:
People overrate playing with good teammates in regards to shooting. He might get a slight uptick in open catch and shoot but the dude shot 27% last year.

Layman showed that, when he got consistent minutes, that he could really shoot the ball. Then he starts getting his minutes yanked around and starts getting yanked out for missing a single three (while Moe and Aminu get a very long leash) and his confidence tanks. In a consistent role with a longer leash, he'll be a good 3pt shooter. That's much more of a factor than "Good teammates might make the ball go in for Hezonja more often and he'll be a 35% 3pt shooter instead of a 27% shooter"... If you thought Jake was a bad shooter last year, that's what Hezonja has consistently been for years. Never shot 35% or above even though he's had the chance to.

Also, Jake is much better moving off the ball, which is really valuable in regards to the other guys on this roster.
Click to expand...
Its my opinion, but what I want to know is can Hezonja play defense consistently? I know he has his high lebron Block and that Layman had some high light blocks. I feel like unless a player is really, really good offensively they’re leash is going to be really short if their defense is bad.
I loved some of Layman’s performances he was a high flier and fun to watch, but his defense was straight bad, it was just oh he got caught on screens, guys literally went by him whenever, his stance is bad he’s gotta fix that.

I really dont expect Mario to be overall better than Layman, I think his role will be closer to ET’s than Layman’s though. I think they see him more of a Point forward for the second unit. Layman was / is more of a scoring wing and slasher.

So anyways long story short, I basically agree with your premise that Mario’s shooting is unlikely to take a huge jump just because of playing with Dame and CJ, partially because I doubt he’ll see a ton of minutes with both of those guys as his role seems to fit more with either one of those guys on the court or playing with Simons.
 
twobullz said:
He also shot nearly 35% one season. So he has the ability to shoot better, if he gets open shots I am guessing.

As for Jake, dude was a major liability on defense. So he had the opportunity to earn more minutes but was such a liability on defense he did not take advantage of the opportunity. Jake had a good month or two, then once the league had video on him he showed he was not a everyday player. Teams just learned to attack him in the pick and roll until the Blazers were forced to take him off the court. Plus he stopped getting the back door and could not hit shots. As for Moe and Chief they played both end of the court and rebounded something else that Hezonja does better then Jake.
Click to expand...
You're horribly underrating Laymans defense and overrating Hezonja's. Some would argue RPM is the best way to gauge defense. Layman had a -0.39DRPM last season. Hezonja had a -0.61DRPM.

The year before, Hezonja had a -1.30DRPM.

Hezonja has 5.8 reb per 36 for his career, and Layman averages a close 5.3 reb. Hezonja grabs an addition 0.8% of rebounds that are available than Layman. That's a negligible difference.

This is a classic case of Blazer fans thinking the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Its my opinion, but what I want to know is can Hezonja play defense consistently? I know he has his high lebron Block and that Layman had some high light blocks. I feel like unless a player is really, really good offensively they’re leash is going to be really short if their defense is bad.
I loved some of Layman’s performances he was a high flier and fun to watch, but his defense was straight bad, it was just oh he got caught on screens, guys literally went by him whenever, his stance is bad he’s gotta fix that.

I really dont expect Mario to be overall better than Layman, I think his role will be closer to ET’s than Layman’s though. I think they see him more of a Point forward for the second unit. Layman was / is more of a scoring wing and slasher.

So anyways long story short, I basically agree with your premise that Mario’s shooting is unlikely to take a huge jump just because of playing with Dame and CJ, partially because I doubt he’ll see a ton of minutes with both of those guys as his role seems to fit more with either one of those guys on the court or playing with Simons.
Click to expand...
I doubt anyone's ever consistently watched Hezonja defend. I think those couple of plays against LeBron is skewing people's opinions a bit. Meanwhile, Layman seems like a worse defender than he actually is because he was always substituted in for two really good defending forwards in Harkless and Aminu. Layman was subconsciously held to that standard.

Mario as a point forward is silly to me. A career 1 to 1 AST:TOV ratio when he wasn't even tasked with playmaking duties... Somehow 3 games has people thinking of him as a point forward when two of those games were essentially against G-League rosters...
 
BonesJones said:
You're horribly underrating Laymans defense and overrating Hezonja's. Some would argue RPM is the best way to gauge defense. Layman had a -0.39DRPM last season. Hezonja had a -0.61DRPM.

The year before, Hezonja had a -1.30DRPM.

Hezonja has 5.8 reb per 36 for his career, and Layman averages a close 5.3 reb. Hezonja grabs an addition 0.8% of rebounds that are available than Layman. That's a negligible difference.

This is a classic case of Blazer fans thinking the grass is greener on the other side of the fence.
Click to expand...

You and I have gone back and forth about Layman all year. Hezonja is better in just about every stat then Jake last year, yet you continue to have rose color glasses about him. As for his defense, all you had to do was watch blazers games last year. As soon as Jake came in teams put him in the pick and roll and his man would have a free run. I have not watched a lot of Hezonja, in my first post I even stated it was based on the video that was posted above it, which is obviously not the best to base the entire career on, since it was a highlight video, but it shows he has more ability then Jake.
 
BonesJones said:
I doubt anyone's ever consistently watched Hezonja defend. I think those couple of plays against LeBron is skewing people's opinions a bit. Meanwhile, Layman seems like a worse defender than he actually is because he was always substituted in for two really good defending forwards in Harkless and Aminu. Layman was subconsciously held to that standard.

Mario as a point forward is silly to me. A career 1 to 1 AST:TOV ratio when he wasn't even tasked with playmaking duties... Somehow 3 games has people thinking of him as a point forward when two of those games were essentially against G-League rosters...
Click to expand...

I posed it as a question about Mario's defense because I haven't watched his defense, and so I have no idea if he's any better than Jake or not, I mean high lights are nice but does very little to show you how a player really is overall.
Also no, I didn't hold Layman to that standard, I just thought his defense wasn't very good and it wasn't like he was stuck on the other teams best players either.

I can agree that the idea of Mario as a point forward is maybe silly based on really a minuscule sample size, but I believe that is what the Blazers view him as, and I believe that is the role they will try to play him in.
 
twobullz said:
You and I have gone back and forth about Layman all year. Hezonja is better in just about every stat then Jake last year, yet you continue to have rose color glasses about him. As for his defense, all you had to do was watch blazers games last year. As soon as Jake came in teams put him in the pick and roll and his man would have a free run. I have not watched a lot of Hezonja, in my first post I even stated it was based on the video that was posted above it, which is obviously not the best to base the entire career on, since it was a highlight video, but it shows he has more ability then Jake.
Click to expand...
Last season:
TS% - Layman .594 / Hezonja .497
FG% - Layman .509 / Hezonja .412
3P% - Layman .326 / Hezonja .276
BPM - Layman -0.3 / Hezonja -4.0
RPM - Layman -1.41 / Hezonja -3.33

Layman's advantage in all those stats:
TS% 9.7%
FG% 9.7%
3P% 5.0%
BPM 3.70
RPM 1.92
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
I posed it as a question about Mario's defense because I haven't watched his defense, and so I have no idea if he's any better than Jake or not, I mean high lights are nice but does very little to show you how a player really is overall.
Also no, I didn't hold Layman to that standard, I just thought his defense wasn't very good and it wasn't like he was stuck on the other teams best players either.

I can agree that the idea of Mario as a point forward is maybe silly based on really a minuscule sample size, but I believe that is what the Blazers view him as, and I believe that is the role they will try to play him in.
Click to expand...
Okay, I shouldn't state it for all Blazer fans but I think Blazer fans saw the dropoff in defense from Moe and Chief to Layman and docked Layman more for it when it should've been more of a credit to our starting forwards.

That's a bad gamble for a team trying to contend IMO. He'd have to turn into the best-case scenario of himself in order to keep up with the level of play we're trying to achieve.
 
BonesJones said:
Last season:
TS% - Layman .594 / Hezonja .497
FG% - Layman .509 / Hezonja .412
3P% - Layman .326 / Hezonja .276
BPM - Layman -0.3 / Hezonja -4.0
RPM - Layman -1.41 / Hezonja -3.33

Layman's advantage in all those stats:
TS% 9.7%
FG% 9.7%
3P% 5.0%
BPM 3.70
RPM 1.92
Click to expand...

He played on such a bad team they won 17 games. Jake was on a 53 win team. Of course his metric numbers are going to be better. The fact Jake could not stay on the court because he was abused on defense and as a whole his individual numbers are worse basically across the board is all the matters. Lets see what Mario's numbers are next year when he is not surrounded by the worst roster in the NBA.
 
BonesJones said:
Okay, I shouldn't state it for all Blazer fans but I think Blazer fans saw the dropoff in defense from Moe and Chief to Layman and docked Layman more for it when it should've been more of a credit to our starting forwards.

That's a bad gamble for a team trying to contend IMO. He'd have to turn into the best-case scenario of himself in order to keep up with the level of play we're trying to achieve.
Click to expand...
You may definitely be right that's it may be a bad gamble, but it seems to be at least from the interviews I heard and the talk around it, is that it's a gamble they're taking.

Like I said I don't really disagree with you, just that I think the Blazers for whatever reason see him as their replacement for ET in terms of being a ball handler off the bench, and all that.
 
You can't get a stat comparison with Jake and Mario that's on equal ground....Mario was on tanking teams with rotating coaches and systems as a rookie and sophomore in the nba….Jake had one coach the whole time and one system with opportunities..he started when Mo didn't.....first half of last season Jake was great....last several games he played for us he was terrible......Mario rocked the Knicks for the last few games of the season....one guy ended the year hot...one ended it cold. Jake needed a new team in my view. He very well may have wanted to leave Portland and get a fresh start. I like Jake's game...don't know Mario's well other than some clips and articles. He played well against us I remember
 
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