Rank West Team by title chance next 5 years

Excluding the current bubble, who has the best chance of winning a title.

My rankings;

1 Lakers
2 Warriors
3 Clippers
4 Nuggets
5 Mavs

6 Thunder
7 Blazers
8 Suns
9 Rockets
10 Jazz
11 Pelicans
12 Spurs
13 Grizzlies
14 Kings
15 TWolves

I thought there was a top5 all clearly above the Blazers then teams 6-13 all have arguments for and against.

 

Agreed. There's a clear top 5.
All the other teams 6-15 basically have no chance without a major change in course.

 

Thunder and Rockettes strike me as wild cards as both are looking at major changes.

Warriors
Flakers
Denver
Dallas
Clips
Suns
Jazz
Griz
Thunder*
Rockets*
Pelicans
Blazers
Spurs
Kings
TWolves

 

I'm sold on Doncic but I'm not sold on his supporting cast, so I'm not sure I'd include the Mavs in that top group yet

I'd also, maybe, slide Utah higher up next to Portland, although they seem to have worse injury luck than the Blazers

 

Warriors
Lakers
Clippers
Nuggets
Jazz
Dallas
NO
Phoenix
Memphis
Houston
Portland
SA
OKC
Minnesota
Sacramento

 

Warriors
Clippers
Nuggets
Lakers
Dallas
Blazers
Phoenix
Jazz
NO
Houston
OKC
Memphis
SA
Sac
Minn

 

The Pels have a big future - they have a lot of picks...

 

I wonder if someone can find the one we did 2-3 years ago. As I recall it did not work out the way we thought.
Injuries, bad picks, and stupid trades all were factors. Denver was still up there, but so were the Wolves, Thunder, Jazz and maybe even the Kings.

 

I just think 5 years is a long time to predict team level competitiveness. So I don't have much of an opinion. I think Denver and Dallas have the best shot in year 4 and 5 or maybe even before. It's just that in the NBA one or two players can come along that are either not drafted right now or are too early in their development to know about and literally transform a franchise, especially when we are projecting more than a year or two out. That's not even mentioning lopsided trades or free agent signings that shift power dramatically. Three years ago before LeBron signed with the Lakers it would have been laughable to put them on this list and before they got AD this last off season it still would have been ill advised to consider them one of the top favorites. It's just very hard to predict and then you factor in the uncertainty of the league's future. What will the new CBA look like? Will there be amnesties? Might the NBA lose a season making it even less likely that a LeBron led team would be a factor for more than a couple more seasons? A lot of additional question marks on something that is usually so highly speculative.

I will say that whether the Lakers win this championship or not (I think they are definitely going to), they will be the prohibitive favorites next season, having the opportunity to once again sign some new ring chasers and use the MLE on someone even better. I say that with full awareness of the inevitable re-emergence of the Warriors and emergence of the Nets (I know that's the Eastern Conference but this is about championships).

 

The only answer worth entertaining.

 

Not including this season: Top five teams with a chance to win a title over next 5 seasons:

Trailblazers
Lakers
Nuggets
Suns
Pelicans

 

Think of it this way, you get $100 for a team that wins a title in the next 5 years. What order would you select west teams?

Yes some teams will peak in year 5 like the Mavs or maybe Thunder. Others peak now but have mortgaged away picks in 5 years like the Lakers&Clippers.

Yes there are tons of unknowns that will impact this, thats why its a projection.

Another way of thinking of it, what roster&picks&mgmt would you trade with the Blazers to increase odds of a title? I would say Lakers/Clippers/Warriors/Nuggets/Mavs are all clearly superior.

 

Lakers now and the next two years
Warriors will be contenders when/if healthy
Nuggets already and even more so with experience/development
Mavs are a year away from being the Nuggets or maybe even better
Pelicans have so much young talent and so many picks and they could cash Holiday in for more picks and young talent so for them years 3-5
Blazers because I am a kool-aid drinking homer

I know it was a five team exercise but I had to add that sixth team. I left the other LA team off because I just don't think the Clippers have the mix right and I don't know if they will find it. All of these teams may be impeded in their chances for championships by the rise of the Nets they have the right mix of youth and current star power to get on a serious roll.

 

Too many changes from year to year to really take too much stock in predictions like these. I'd definitely agree that right now the Blazers look to be stuck in mediocrity. Maybe Olshey will pull off some magic. Hope springs eternal.

 

Tier 1

Lakers, Warriors, Clippers, Denver, Houston (?), Dallas (?)

Tier 2

Utah, Phoenix, Pels, Grizz, Portland, Spurs, Minnesota

Tier 3

Sacramento, OKC,

 

I don’t know about Clippers. Kawhi & PG can leave for nothing next year. I agree with the other teams. Put Blazers in top 5 cuz of Dame.

 

Blazers
Suns
Grizzlies
Jazz
Nuggets

 

In this league anything longer than a year or two is absolutely impossible to say.
This year it looks like Lakers or Miami. After that you could choose any of the top 10-12 teams for next year.
Just too many variables after 2021 and into 2022.