I would...that's why I asked we know approximately what Oregon is drawing from the Big-10 media pie. It's somewhere in the 35M range, give or take a couple of million; same for Washington. Otther Big-10 teams make nearly twice that. We know what SEC programs make; what Big-12 programs make; what ACC programs make. We even have a pretty good idea what the Mountain West media deal will pay to each school not sure why the Pac-12 deal should be a secret
lots of different speculations out there: usually, when a range is this wide, 7-12M, it tends to fall in the middle. I read an article from a media 'expert' a few months ago who projected the payout to be in the 9-10M/year range, assuming the Pac-12 could find that 8th FBS member. It was the same expert who reported on the former Pac-12 grossly overrating their leverage in the failed talks for a media deal that the Big-12 came in behind the failure and picked up. He also was one of the first to report on the Big-10 deal numbers the Pac-X may be able to augment that a little bit with some streaming deals
It just sucks for the Beavers. They should take any opportunity to get out of the Pac-12. Ducks are paying Lanning what the Beavers will be getting in TV revenue. The math is just not there for the Pac-12 to become a power conference again in Football.
Welcome to 2023? When the pac12 collapsed 24 months ago the Beavs were stuck without a home - there was never going to be a great result. The Beavs and Pac have actually done much better than I expected. The Pac is positioned to be the top group of 5 conference. The worst schools are actually pretty strong so its a solid top to bottom conference. I know you talked about trying to go to the Big12 but thats just not something that was ever available or realistic. Going forward the Beavs and Pac just need to make the conference entertaining, emphasize its the best west coast options without crazy travel, and position it to capitalize on a 2030 expansion opportunity if some come up such as Stan/Cal types.
actually, I guess now it's the Group of Six Pac 12 AAC Conference USA MAC Mountain West Sun Belt googling the media deals: Pac 12 --> 10-11M/year AAC --> 7M/year Conference USA --> 750-800K/year (Yikes!) MAC --> 2-2.5M/year Mountain West --> 4M/year Sun Belt --> 2M/year The MAC had a deal paying each school 8M year, but that expired in 2023. Looks like the Pac-X picked up most of that loose change so, except for the AAC, the Pac has a huge advantage over the other G6 conferences in terms of media payout. They also have a pretty big advantage in name recognition and recent success in football (Boise St.) and basketball (San Diego St.). Texas St, is an awkward fit geographically, but if that school is OK with all the travel it doesn't matter. The Pac should continue to do what they have been doing and that's pick off other schools for specific sports. Gonzaga strengthens the basketball component. There may be other west coast basketball programs like Long Beach St. they could pick off. I think it's been mentioned there may be several candidates to join in baseball Sacramento St. is kind of interesting. The NCAA denied their application for FBS promotion because they didn't have an invite from an FBS conference. What they do have is a group of aggressive boosters who want the school to advance the sports programs. The problem is the media deals are set so the rest of the Pac's FBS programs won't want to dilute their shares by adding Sac St as a member getting their own share. Maybe Sac St is desperate enough for an invite they'd be willing to join and not have a payout till 2031. Having 9 conference members would probably make scheduling a little easier, especially if the MWC won't cooperate with non-conference scheduling, and recent comments by MWC representatives indicate it won't
The rise in costs of college football has an endgame. The world is running out of resources, the environment is shifting dramatically, and we are existing in the swan song of large scale discretionary income. Simply put...the haves vs have nots....is going to soon be a rapidly shrinking group. The Beavers were never in that group, nor realistically within reach. There is going to be plenty of medicine to be taken. The Beavers are taking theirs now. Thank god we got the stadium before this all went down. Really looking forward to college football, the way it used to be. Every day, I like this more. Go Beavers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Unless one or two of the teams actually build a winner and they draw some attention which in turn creates revenue and better TV deals. Not many watch the Big 10 for Rutgers.
it would probably take more than 2 teams. Boise St. spent years flirting with undefeated seasons and it didn't do much for the MWC's media deals. The Broncos just didn't have any other top-10 partners in the conference to set up compelling games and must watch TV. Boise St. may be the most compelling 'name', football-wise, in the new Pac-12, but they got clobbered by South Florida yesterday. Best thing would be one of OSU/WSU reaching top-10 status before their reputation as a member of the defunct Pac-12 fades
Boise has more good seasons than bad and obviously got some national recognition last year. That obviously isn’t going to happen every year but if they win all the rest of their games this season (highly likely) they will again be in the top 25. They need another team to be in the top 25 consistently. A third is very tough in a single year but they certainly could get one at times. I’m interested in how this will play out
Remember Fresno St, Texas Tech and Washington State can still have good seasons. Those teams are not without talent and the ability to get in the top 25 at times.
first, it's probably worth noting that the future Pac-12 doesn't really exist this season. It's the Pac-2 + the MWC refugees + Texas State. That could be a major problem because...IIRC...this it the last season of the current FBS playoff system. And the Big-10 and SEC have been dominating the discussions about what the future playoff format will be. Those two conferences couldn't agree so it's back to the drawing board. However, the Big-10 did hammer the SEC and force the SEC into finally, at long last, go to a 9 game conference schedule next season. That was a huge concession for the SEC and a huge win for the Big-10 and the other two P4 conferences the big issue for the Pac-12 and the other G6 conferences is they already have almost no leverage in the playoff discussions; and with the Pac-12 probably being the future 'flagship' G6 conference not even existing yet when the decisions are made....yikes! And of course it isn't just the two super-conferences dominating the situation....it's the media partners sitting at the table dangling hundreds of millions for the "right" CFP format. And the right format wouldn't include Ohio State vs Boise State in the opening round when it could be Ohio State vs Oklahoma and it wasn't a very good opening day for the future Pac-12: * OSU lost by 19, at home, to a Cal team that went 6-7 last season and got wiped out in the transfer portal * WSU needed a last second FG to beat Idaho, at home * Boise State lost 34-7 * Fresno St. lost 31-7 at Kansas 9 days ago but did beat Georgia Southern (who?) by 28 Saturday * San Diego St, did win 42-0, but it was against Stony Brook on opening day, in the ESPN power index of FBS teams, UNLV was the highest rated team in the Pac-12/MWC at 59th. Three teams from the American Conference: Tulane, Memphis, and South Florida were rated higher (Tulane at 34th) and South Florida was the team that boat raced Boise St. So, the revamped Pac-12/MWC is already buried behind the 8-ball. In the top-70 programs, the Pac-12/MWC has 1 team; the American conference has 5 teams all that can change, and probably will, during the course of a season obviously. But it does illustrate the difficult landscape the Pac-12 will be stepping into *********************************************************************** I think the Pac-12 is probably doing about all they could do to make the best of the situation. They made it to 8 FBS schools. They are adding teams like Gonzaga for basketball which in turn can enhance their March Madness revenue. IIRC they have added a couple of programs for baseball. It's too bad they didn't add UNLV rather than Texas St. That would have made for a better geographic footprint and less travel expenses. Water under the bridge at this point After all the Pac-2's chatter about integrity, or lack of, by them being left behind, what the Pac-X did to the MWC is a bad look. I think they made it worse by filing a lawsuit about the poaching penalties contract with the MWC they agreed to. I believe the arbitration failed in July and the first court hearing is sometime this month. The total poaching penalty under dispute is 55M. That's nearly 7M/school the Pac-12 would have to pay if the contract is upheld or the suit dismissed. That would hurt a bit but being on the outs with another G6 conference may hurt more in the long run I don't think being top-25 is enough to elevate the stature. Probably needs to be top-10
