You know I was just going to say that it seems like we’ve played a TON of teams while they were missing key players.
Moreso a tough schedule plus growing pains trying to learn a new defense. I expect us to be 15th to 20th. People will downplay certain teams because of who they were missing as if those teams weren't still playing solid to good basketball without them. We have one of the easiest schedules in the league after tonight.
You and a few others are really good at the statistical point of the game for sure. To me it's absolutely astounding how you guys come up with most of this stuff. It's really entertaining to read. Sometimes however it becomes hard to wrap my head around all the But, If, Were to's, therefore's and to this points. Keep up the good work. It certainly won't be me doing it.
And they are now 20 games more experienced together than they were at the beginning of the season. There are some very positive things to watch for sure.
I wouldn't use Win Shares. I don't remember where, but I've read that Win Shares and PER and near the bottom of the barrel of advance stats when it comes to predictive power. Also it doesn't pass the sanity test. For example, according to Win Shares 2020-21 Dame was only 2.9 wins better than Kanter. BPM is a better advanced stat and we know it's units are point differential per 48 above an average player. Dame's BPM has averaged +6.75 for the past 4 years. He averages about 2/3 of 48 min/g so 6.75 x 2/3 = +4.5 points per game. At +2.5 wins per point (historically reliable) Dame adds +11 wins per season. With Dame at exactly 0.0 BPM this year he has cost us 11 / 4 = 2.8 wins compared to his normal contribution. A simpler and more direct way to calculate it is to take Dames normal TS% and apply it to games this season to see how many points he "should" have scored each game vs what he did score. Doing that Dame is -75 points behind himself. Blazers should have a +4.35 point differential and these game results would have changed: We win Game 1 vs Sacremento by 10 instead of losing by 3. We win Game 8 vs Cleveland by 8 instead of losing by 3. We tie Game 6 vs Charlotte instead of losing by 12. So +2.5 wins.
I think we will end up anywhere from 6th-9th in the western conference standings. Doubtful we get past the first round. Another wasted year of Dames prime.
Since your change is based on not being the same as him. Ill let @THE HCP determine if you can change to 42-40. Is this okay @THE HCP?
Haha I had a feeling. I am a software developer as well, and I thought you might either be a software developer or data scientist.
Nope. They currently do 90% of what they do at home on the road both in offensive rating and defensive rating, even if you multiply these, it comes to 81% - which is more than the 80 you request of them. They need to 95% of what they do on offense and on defense to split their road games - which is what you want a good team to do. The 80% would have worked if they were a lot more dominant in net-ratings at home. They are not.
I think that 80% figure was pulled out of thin air just to make a point but yet again i am shocked at some of the stats you guys come up with. Great job because it not only makes sense it is undoubtedly true.
I am sure it was - it just felt very wrong to me - so I actually looked it up. But then, I am a NERD as well - and I am working with numbers a lot - so it just tingled my spidey sense ...
