2007-08 NBA Regular Season Real Player Ratings

Discussion in 'Denver Nuggets' started by tremaine, Jul 11, 2008.

  1. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    When I went to APBR, all of my nerd alert warning bells were going off at once, and I quickly said to myself: most of the people here don't ultimately give a damn about whether what they do is a close reflection of reality or not. Believe me, I know all too much about the academic mindset, and how the elegance of the proof is more important than whether the product is useful and reflects reality well or not. Academic payrolls are determined much more by style than by reality based substance. The distinction reminds me of Karl, for whom style is more important than result or reality. No, I am definitely not an APBR type of guy.

    But if I did go there and was trashed, I would be flattered.
     
  2. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 11:19 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>When I went to APBR, all of my nerd alert warning bells were going off at once, and I quickly said to myself: most of the people here don't ultimately give a damn about whether what they do is a close reflection of reality or not. Believe me, I know all too much about the academic mindset, and how the elegance of the proof is more important than whether the product is useful and reflects reality well or not. Academic payrolls are determined much more by style than by reality based substance. The distinction reminds me of Karl, for whom style is more important than result or reality. No, I am definitely not an APBR type of guy.

    But if I did go there and was trashed, I would be flattered.</div>

    Actually they do care very much about formulas reflecting reality because that is the only way what they do has any value.

    The point is to have independently tested and verified formulas.

    Again you are making excuses to cover for obvious flaws
     
  3. Really Lost One

    Really Lost One Suspended

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 10:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 13 2008, 09:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Okay answer my question

    So you're saying TJ Ford is better than Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Tony Parker, and Jose Calderon (who he couldn't even start over last season)?</div>

    You don't think the per time measure has any value, so for you the answer is no, TJ Ford was not better than those players in 2007-08, because (a) he didn't do anywhere near as much as they did and (b) there must have been a valid reason why his playing time was what it was, which is one reason why no per time measure is needed.

    So for you the answer is no and for me (and the Indiana Pacers lol) it is yes. Both you and I get to go on with our business with no changes in our thinking necessary, because I am out there on the horizon looking at things that have seldom if ever been looked at in basketball before, and you choose not to go there.
    </div>
    I'm not trying to start anything, I like what you do on this forum, I guess I just don't really understand how these forumlas and stuff work. I know you're a big basketball fan, and I know you know your stuff so let's just agree to disagree. [​IMG]

    Maybe if I look into it more, I'll understand where you're going. But I'm too lazy. lol
     
  4. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    There is someone here trying to confuse things regarding ESPN and Hollinger. Is he doing it for the hell of it? I don't know exactly why.

    ESPN to my knowledge does NOT have the Hollinger formulas on their site, whether you are an insider or not, so no one who goes to ESPN, which is a whole, hell of a lot of people, can find out how Hollinger comes up with his numbers. Only a tiny minority will ever find where the formulas are squirreled away on the net, which is the way ESPN likes it. Because if you actually start looking at the formulas, you say to yourself, if you are me anyway, "My God, how could a sports game justify all of this mathematical razzmatazz, which would take at least an 8 hour work day to evaluate and determine whether it is valid or not, and maybe much more than 8 hours."
     
  5. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 11:31 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>There is someone here trying to confuse things regarding ESPN and Hollinger. Is he doing it for the hell of it? I don't know exactly why.

    ESPN to my knowledge does NOT have the Hollinger formulas on their site, whether you are an insider or not, so no one who goes to ESPN, which is a whole, hell of a lot of people, can find out how Hollinger comes up with his numbers. Only a tiny minority will ever find where the formulas are squirreled away on the net, which is the way ESPN likes it. Because if you actually start looking at the formulas, you say to yourself, if you are me anyway, "My God, how could a sports game justify all of this mathematical razzmatazz, which would take at least an 8 hour work day to evaluate and determine whether it is valid or not, and maybe much more than 8 hours.</div>

    The forumla is freely available at basketball-reference.com which any NBA fan with half a brain can find. Hollinger even published the formula in his books.

    I am not attempting to confuse anything. Rather I am bringing up real facts that have you very confused.

    Just because the formula isn't on ESPN.com doesn't mean anything. By far, the vast majority of NBA fans do not rely upon espn.com for their stats.
     
  6. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 13 2008, 10:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 10:13 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 13 2008, 09:18 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Okay answer my question

    So you're saying TJ Ford is better than Chauncey Billups, Jason Kidd, Tony Parker, and Jose Calderon (who he couldn't even start over last season)?</div>

    You don't think the per time measure has any value, so for you the answer is no, TJ Ford was not better than those players in 2007-08, because (a) he didn't do anywhere near as much as they did and (b) there must have been a valid reason why his playing time was what it was, which is one reason why no per time measure is needed.

    So for you the answer is no and for me (and the Indiana Pacers lol) it is yes. Both you and I get to go on with our business with no changes in our thinking necessary, because I am out there on the horizon looking at things that have seldom if ever been looked at in basketball before, and you choose not to go there.
    </div>
    I'm not trying to start anything, I like what you do on this forum, I guess I just don't really understand how these forumlas and stuff work. I know you're a big basketball fan, and I know you know your stuff so let's just agree to disagree. [​IMG]

    Maybe if I look into it more, I'll understand where you're going. But I'm too lazy. lol
    </div>

    You don't have to believe the Real Player Ratings are worth anything to potentially still be reading my other stuff. Look in my Nuggets game breakdowns, I put in both the basic ratings, which is total production in the game not adjusted for time, and the Real Player Ratings, which are the basic ratings adjusted for time. You can ignore one or both of them as you want.

    All I am saying is that both are potentially useful to different kinds of people, both for games and for the season as a whole. If you want the actual production, you sure as hell don't need me. You can go to ESPN or, if you don't like their public formula (or the secret Hollinger formula) then you can go somewhere else. Or you can say the hell with all the formulas, because every big time basketball watcher knows, very roughly at least, how the players rank, without checking any stats at all anywhere anyway. And you may decide it just doesn't matter who is slightly better than who, because in the playoffs these slight differences don't amount to much. (Maybe TJ Ford is going to be a playoff flop lol.)

    Does it really matter much where TJ Ford or Leon Powe or JR Smith ranked in the Real Player Ratings? They matter to me, because I have a way of thinking that makes these ratings important to me. It matters to some of my readers, who were too timid to appear here, or who don't know I have this habit of posting at SportsTwo, lol. They should matter to front offices, such as those of the Pacers and the Nuggets.

    But for many fans, it can't matter too much, because it is a hard reality that neither TJ Ford nor JR Smith played for major minutes last year, and neither started much. Therefore, since they didn't play much, they were not all that good. It's indisputable. And that is about as true as saying that, per minute, they were much better than most know. Each is equally true.

    In fact, different ways of thinking don't usually mean that one is right and one is wrong, unless you are talking about obvious things like inflicting bodily harm and stuff like that.
     
  7. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    At APBR, they spend most of their time trying to figure out why their formulas don't work, lol. The ones running the forum and presenting the models and formulas are academics, who are paid for the correctness of their mathematics and their scientific reasoning, not for whether their formulas can be used in a real world setting or not.

    I went their once and it was a joke. There were basketball models on parade that were like the Hindenburg blimp, doomed to blow up in the real world.
     
  8. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 14 2008, 12:02 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>At APBR, they spend most of their time trying to figure out why their formulas don't work, lol. The ones running the forum and presenting the models and formulas are academics, who are paid for the correctness of their mathematics and their scientific reasoning, not for whether their formulas can be used in a real world setting or not.

    I went their once and it was a joke. There were basketball models on parade that were like the Hindenburg blimp, doomed to blow up in the real world.</div>

    So let me get this right. You went there once and you know what the place is about?
     
  9. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    Instead of being like a blimp, the straightforward but comprehensive ESPN/tremaine model is more like a bicycle. It's only slightly complicated, it generally works reliably, it does most of the time get you where you want to go, and it saves you a lot of time that you would otherwise spend going through other stats (or it saves you a lot of gas money, lol.)
     
  10. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    Only needed once, about an hour, and that was enough for me to decide to NOT highlight that site in my bookmarks. Sorry, academics and sports do not directly mix.

    The kind of academics you see there is intended to teach people how to think. I already know how to mathematically and scientifically think and reason, so I don't need to be taught what they are teaching. My job is to allow people who themselves know how to scientifically think consider new ways of looking at and evaluating basketball, managements, teams, and players. I don't need complicated models and formulas to do that; relatively simple models and formulas are all that is needed for the job.
     
  11. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 14 2008, 12:14 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Instead of being like a blimp, the straightforward but comprehensive ESPN/tremaine model is more like a bicycle. It's only slightly complicated, it generally works reliably, it does most of the time get you where you want to go, and it saves you a lot of time that you would otherwise spend going through other stats (or it saves you a lot of gas money, lol.)</div>

    Wrong, it hasn't proven to work reliably at all.
     
  12. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 14 2008, 12:21 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Only needed once, about an hour, and that was enough for me to decide to NOT highlight that site in my bookmarks. Sorry, academics and sports do not directly mix.

    The kind of academics you see there is intended to teach people how to think. I already know how to mathematically and scientifically think and reason, so I don't need to be taught what they are teaching. My job is to allow people who themselves know how to scientifically think consider new ways of looking at and evaluating basketball, at managements, at teams, and at players. I don't need complicated models and formulas to do that.</div>

    You couldn't be further from the truth
     
  13. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    Lol you'll have to wait for the coming installments of "Allen Iverson, What Could Have Been."

    Lol, don't have time for the other question either. So which advanced performance measures besides mine do have a penalty for missed shots?
     
  14. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Jul 13 2008, 07:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 07:36 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Powe comes from a very poor background, and players such as this have a steeper hill to climb if they are ever to be regarded as starters, a road which can on occasion be a very twisted one as well as being steep</div>

    Please prove this claim of yours
    </div>

    Still waiting on this
     
  15. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

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    Only needed once, about an hour, and that was enough for me to decide to NOT highlight that site in my bookmarks. Sorry, academics and sports do not directly mix.

    The kind of academics you see there is intended to teach people how to think. I already know how to mathematically and scientifically think and reason, so I don't need to be taught what they are teaching. My job is to allow people who themselves know how to scientifically think to consider new ways of looking at and evaluating basketball, managements, teams, and players. I don't need complicated models and formulas to do that.
     
  16. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

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    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Jul 13 2008, 08:46 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 08:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>But consider that most "advanced" statistics do not have any penalty at all for missed shots, and thus no adjustment whatsoever for pace.</div>

    Which advanced stats are you claiming don't have a penalty for missed shots?
    </div>

    Still waiting on this one too
     
  17. Celtic Fan

    Celtic Fan Well-Known Member

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    toot your own horn all you want guy, anyone who watches basketball know's your findings are complete BS.

    FYI I live in Canada and have seen TJ Ford numerous times, the guy is reckelss and puts up bad shots and drives to the hole and can't finish a lot of the time. He has his moments, but he forces things too often to the detriment of his team. Go in the Raptors thread, ask them if they'd have rather kept TJ Ford and traded calderon.... wear a rainsuit because the garbage they're going to throw at you for suggesting such a thing will be substantial... you know why? because they've seen TJ Ford play.. A lot and they know he's not nearly as good at Calderon.

    where's your stat for that?


    Stat's are a nice aide, but in using your 'system' as the sole basis for evaluating a player is absurd. This isn't the robot league (Tim Duncan excepted of course) these players are humans and are inconsistent and don't all play alike. There is this thing call INTANGIBLES. You know the ability to inspire, lead by example, make your team mates better.

    I mean I'm sure you can show stats that would prove there are forwards with better stats than Larry Bird, but you won't find a single competent sports writer of Fan who saw him play say there's a better forward to EVER play the game. Without seeing how he affected the game, you just don't get it by looking at some weak ass numbers.

    If you don't believe the simple assertion that MOST bench players, when given more minutes, don't improve substantially.. well I don't know what to say.
    You're a lost cause.


    You know.. the fact that NO ONE has come in this thread and said 'you know what.. you may be on to something' should be your first clue that you need to go back to the drawing board. [​IMG]
     
  18. CelticKing

    CelticKing The Green Monster

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    Ginobili, T.J. Ford, J.R Smith, Powe, Biedrins ranked higher than Pierce? Ray Allen ranked 128 even though he broke the record for threes in the finals?


    I could name more but that will do it.
     

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