We already have multiple threads about the upcoming draft. So, I think we also need one about our chances of making the playoffs. Please: No thread crapping with talk of the lottery and the draft, we already have several threads on those topics. Please keep this thread on topic and discuss those subjects in the appropriate threads. Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/5/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Projected Record = 36-46 Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.0% FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 36-46 Odds of Making the Playoffs = 26% Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 35.8-46.2 Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.4% Consensus: Projected Record = 36-46 Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1% I'll try to update this thread with the latest projections after every Blazers game. BNM
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/10/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 47.0% Change = +23.0% Projected Finish = 8th FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 38-44 Change = +2 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.0% Change = +9.0% Projected Finish = 9th Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 36.7-45.3 Change = + 0.9 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 25.6% Change = +3.2% Projected Finish = 9th Consensus: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 35.9% Change = +11.8% BNM
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/13/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Projected Record = 36-46 Change = -1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.4% Change = +-19.6% Projected Finish = 9th FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = -1 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 32.0% Change = -3.0% Projected Finish = 9th Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 36.8-45.2 Change = +0.1 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.1% Change = -1.5% Projected Finish = 9th Consensus: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = No Change Odds of Making the Playoffs = 27.8% Change = -8.1% BNM
These latest projections assume the Blazers go 7-10, 8-9, 8-9 and that DEN goes 7-9, 8-8, 8-8. DEN has 7 remaining home games and 9 away. POR has 10 remaining home games and 7 away. DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .531 POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .489 We need to win 2 more games than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do. BNM
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/15/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 31.2% Change = +3.8% Projected Finish = 9th FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = No Change Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.0% Change = -10.0% Projected Finish = 9th Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 36.2-45.8 Change = -0.6 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 14.3% Change = -9.8% Projected Finish = 9th Consensus: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = No Change Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.5% Change = -5.3% BNM
DEN has 6 remaining home games and 9 away. POR has 10 remaining home games and 6 away. DEN has 8 remaining games against => .500 teams (4 home and 4 away) and 7 remaining games against =< .500 teams (2 home and 5 away). POR has 6 remaining games against => .500 teams (3 home and 3 away) and 10 remaining games against =< .500 teams (6 home and 4 away). DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .552 POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .490 We need to win 3 more games than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do. BNM
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/16/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Projected Record = 36-46 Change = -1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 24.2% Change = -7.0% Projected Finish = 9th FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 38-44 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 33.0% Change = +11.0%% Projected Finish = 9th Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 37.1-44.9 Change = +0.9 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 22.4% Change = +8.1% Projected Finish = 9th Consensus: Projected Record = 37-45 Change = No Change Odds of Making the Playoffs = 26.5% Change = +5.0% BNM
Those numbers are based on simulations. The same simulations that gave us a 10% chance of winning last night. That's why they play the games. BNM
I like that 538 gives the Heat a shot at the title but not us. We are gonna surprise people in the playoffs. We are much better than our record.
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/19/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Note: ESPN just updated their Playoff Odds Projected Record = 38-44 Change = +2 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 50% Change = +25.8 Projected Finish = 8th FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 39-43 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 55.0% Change = +22.0% Projected Finish = 8th Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 37.1-44.9 Change = No Change Odds of Making the Playoffs = 33.1% Change = +10.7% Projected Finish = 9th Consensus: Projected Record = 38-44 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 46.0% Change = +19.5% BNM
If we do nab that #8 seed, should we be satisfied? Or do you favor Olshey logic that we were 6 points away from HCA and a top 4 seed?
