We are. FiveThirtyEight now has us at a 71% chance of making the playoffs finishing with a 40-42 record. BNM
Right, but I said that BEFORE this game when it was at 58% you had posted. At THAT time I would have thought it more of a 65-70% chance.
E-blazer has us at 100% with a 42-40 record. Screw those pessimists at FiveThirtyEight. Anyone not excited about seeing this team play the Warriors in the first round doesn't have a pulse (or is a Nuggets fan).
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/20/2017: ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds: Projected Record = 39-43 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 61.3% Change = +11.3 Projected Finish = 8th FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions: Projected Record = 40-42 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 71.0% Change = +16.0% Projected Finish = 8th Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report: Projected Record = 38.6-43.4 Change = +1.5 wins Odds of Making the Playoffs = 43.8% Change = +10.7% Projected Finish = 9th Consensus: Projected Record = 39-43 Change = +1 win Odds of Making the Playoffs = 58.7% Change = +12.5% Although basketball-reference still has us missing the playoffs, this is the first time the consensus has us making it. BNM
DEN has 4 remaining home games and 9 away. POR has 10 remaining home games and 3 away. DEN has 6 remaining games against => .500 teams (2 home and 4 away) and 7 remaining games against =< .500 teams (2 home and 5 away). POR has 4 remaining games against => .500 teams (3 home and 1 away) and 9 remaining games against =< .500 teams (7 home and 2 away). DEN Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .562 POR Strength of Schedule for remaining games = .441 We need to win 1 more game than DEN to tie them in the final standings (we currently hold both the first and second tie breakers over DEN), but have more games at home and an easier schedule than they do. BNM
Jk. great work, BNM. 9-6 with Nurkic with wins over 5 playoff teams. That's the pace of a 50 win team, and we have 10 of 13 at home to finish. and I'm not counting that we should've won vs WAS
Don't shoot the messenger. That's what the simulations say. Just based on observing how the odds have changed over the last month, it appears basketball-reference weights their simulation more on season long results, where the other two seem to use a more "what have you done for me lately" approach. That explains why the basketball-reference playoff probabilities are less volatile than the other two. They are the slowest to react to recent trends. In any case, even with basketball reference having us at below 50% odds of making the playoffs, they don't really, not quite. They project us to win 38.6 games and DEN to win 39.0. Since you can't win 0.6 games, if you round us up to 39 wins, they would have us in a tie with DEN and we currently hold the first and second tie breakers with DEN. The first tie breaker is head to head record. We are currently 2-1 against DEN. If we lose the game in Portland on the 28th, and we finish in a tie with DEN, it will come down second tie breaker. The second tie breaker is division record. Our division record is currently 7-3 with 6 games to go. If we lose all 6, we finish with a 7-9 division record. DEN's current division record is 5-8 with 3 games to go. If they win all three, they will finish with an 8-8 division record. It's highly doubtful we lose all six remaining division games (MIN, DEN, @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA)and also highly doubtful DEN wins all three (@POR, OKC and @OKC), but that's the only way they win the tie breaker. Of course the simplest way to ensure we own the tie breaker is to beat DEN on the 28th. BNM
Nice work, BMM. A couple of other points: Two of the Blazers' 3 remaining road games are against teams with losing records (Lakers and Wolves), and we have no back-to-backs remaining on the schedule.
We have 2 back to back sets left. 25/26th: vs Minny, @ LAL 3rd/4th: @Minny, @ UTA That Minny-Utah-Minny-Utah-Spurs stretch is a bit concerning to me
Crap! That's what I get for just taking a quick look at the schedule on my phone. Yeah, the TWolves aren't a team to take lightly, the way they've been playing lately, and Utah and the Spurs...well their records speak for themselves.
It's nice to see this thread finally getting more traction than all the lottery/tanking threads. The draft threads are still important, as we currently have three 1st round picks, but it's nice to see some renewed optimism around here about the team actually winning. BNM
Wonder how many of the sims are won/lost based off the result of the head to head matchup. If we are ahead of them going into that matchup and win it then we will be heavily favored.
Winning that game against DEN at home on the 28th would be huge. In addition to gaining a game on them in the standings it would lock up the tie breaker. Since we would own the tie breaker, at that point, the roles would become reversed. We would no longer be chasing DEN, they would be chasing us. BNM
