2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Boob-No-More, Mar 11, 2017.

  1. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    It's baffling to me why the Wolves are mediocre while KAT and Rubio are both having the best stretch in both their careers.

    KAT is at 29/12 on 62/43/75 shooting splits since the AS break (Good Lord, those shooting numbers).
    Rubio is at 16/11/4 on 47/42/88 shooting splits since the AS break.

    And they're only 6-6, currently on a 3 game losing streak. Still, I don't like the idea of playing them three more times.
     
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  2. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Wiggins shooting like Rubio used to (41%/29%) probably doesn't help.
     
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  3. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Yep, lack of experience + lack of depth = lack of wins.

    The lack of experience has been a problem all season (and last season as well). And now that LaVine is lost for the season their lack of depth is really taking a toll. With Dieng and Brandon Rush, they have two starters that struggle to combine to score 10 points on many nights. So, that leaves them playing 2 and a half on 5 on offense on most nights. Teams know KAT is going to get his, so they focus on shutting down Wiggins and dare Rubio to beat them.

    Wiggins scoring average is only down about 2 ppg since LaVine went down, but as opposing defenses have focused on him his efficiently has gone down the toilet. Even with Rubio shooting better (because he's largely unguarded), he's not the kind of offensive talent that can put a team on his back and carry them to victory.

    I know MIN management is enamored with their youth, but I bet Tom Thibodeau would gladly trade some of that youth for someone who actually knows how to win.

    BNM
     
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  4. Dougnsalem

    Dougnsalem not barf

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    Rockets win! Rockets win!
     
  5. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Normally, that would get you an unlike, but not tonight!

    BNM
     
  6. Dougnsalem

    Dougnsalem not barf

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    Lol. Normally I wouldn't be so excited about it....
     
  7. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    So what is the tie breaker when we are tied with denver in wins and losses? I know i should know but i dont.
     
  8. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Already covered that earlier today in this very thread:

    BNM
     
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  9. jonnyboy

    jonnyboy Well-Known Member

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    Great, thanks.
     
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  10. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    With DEN's 1-point loss to HOU tonight, FiveThirtyEight now has us at a 74% chance of making the playoffs and DEN down to 24%.

    FiveThirtyEight is always the first to post their updates. I'll update this thread with the other projections tomorrow morning after they have been posted on ESPN and basketball-reference.com.

    BNM
     
  11. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    Thanks. You forgot if we lose all 6, we wouldn't be in a tie to be broken anyway.
     
  12. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    How do you figure?

    If we go 7-6 and DEN goes 6-6, both teams end with identical 39-43 records. If we lose to DEN on the 28th, we end up 2-2 in head to head games. That then leaves the division records as the tie breaker.

    The only way the second tie breaker comes into play is if lose to DEN on the 28th.

    BNM
     
  13. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    Gotcha. Thanks.
     
  14. Cippy91

    Cippy91 Habitual Line Stepper

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  15. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    The dude is a less efficient version of Rudy Gay, with worse defense. he isn't a plus at all.

    It's funny when people say the Timberwolves should be better and list Wiggins as one of the reasons. He's not a good player.
     
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  16. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    But they have a brighter future than us!!!! Them and the Bucks and the Pelicans!!! And we're screwed!
     
  17. Trackjack

    Trackjack Well-Known Member

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    What we need to do is focus one game at a time we still have some that going to be tough be the why we are playing now most of them are winnable.
     
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  18. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

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    Can you imagine if we close season on 16 game win streak? Would we be favorites in the first round in some circles?
     
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  19. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    Just your circle.

    Theres a joke here, but well......
     
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  20. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/21/2017:

    ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
    Projected Record = 39-43
    Change = No Change

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 64.0%
    Change = +2.7

    Projected Finish = 8th

    FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
    Projected Record = 40-42
    Change = No Change

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 74.0%
    Change = +3.0%

    Projected Finish = 8th

    Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
    Projected Record = 38.6-43.4
    Change = No Change

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 47.5%
    Change = +3.7%

    Projected Finish = 9th

    Consensus:
    Projected Record = 39-43
    Change = No Change

    Odds of Making the Playoffs = 61.8%
    Change = +3.1%

    With POR idle last night and DEN losing to HOU, the Blazers odds of making the playoffs climbed to a new consensus high of 61.8%.

    Basketball-reference STILL has us missing the playoffs. Here's how they currently have POR and DEN rated:

    DEN: Projected Record = 38.7-43.3, Odds of Making the Playoffs = 48.9%
    POR: Projected Record = 38.6-43.4, Odds of Making the Playoffs = 47.5%

    Since you can't win a tenth of a game, that's a virtual tie. As discussed yesterday, we currently own the first and second tie breakers with DEN.

    But, what the heck, let's beat MIL tonight and make it unanimous!

    BNM
     
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