Game Thread 2022-23 Game #19 - BLAZERS @ KNICKERBOCKERS - NOVEMBER 25, 2002 - FRIDAY - 4:30 PM (PDT) ROOT

ant was right to go 2 for 1, but it was a bad shot, like, really, really bad

 

I swear you Ant haters are ridiculous.

 

Still tied for most road wins in the league.

 

Simons with a much better game than he's had in the past few. Looked very controlled and I loved his read of double teams late in the game.

 

Would like to see more like that.

 

Good win! OT in the Garden after Thanksgiving on the road...rotation players out...gotta love it!

 

josh also looked DESPERATE for a win. was going after the ball hard.

love that guy

 

I'm sure there are scenarios where the math doesn't play out, but in general, it's the right play.

A "bad" shot probably has a 30% chance of going in, meaning you could expect about 0.66-1pt/attempt. Let's average that out and say you can expect 0.83pts/possession.
A "good" shot probably has say 50% change of going in, meaning you could expect about 1-1.5pt/attempt. Lets average that out and say you can expect 1.25pts/possession.

0.83 x 2 posssessions = 1.66 expected points on a 2 for 1 vs the 1.25 expected points taking one "good" shot. A 30% difference is fairly signficant.

Obviously my math is overly simplistic, but I think you get the point. We've had scenarios where that strategy has got us a quick 6-0 run. We've also had times where we miss both and get outscored by 2-3. Overall, you've got to play the numbers. 4 extra possessions in an NBA game probably means an additional 3-4 wins over the course of the season.

 

nurk doesnt rebound as much as he used to, im thinking its cause hart is in a contract year and he lets him get them

 

That felt like a very disjointed game, but our execution was actually pretty good. Anyway, much needed win!

 

He's pulling 12.6 rebounds per/36 minutes. His career per36 is 12.9. Not much of a difference.

 

Look like the starters put a lot of minutes 38 minutes for Nurk that's a lot for him.

 

Great win!

 

According to Corey Jez, there’s almost always a PEV, regardless of shot quality.

 

The Jezmiester would certainly have the data on this.

 

sorry, not buying it for one main reason....Blazers don't get many good shots on their first attempt in their 2-for-1 attempts.

I'm not sure how you derived your numbers, but the reality is that Portland averages 1.31 points/shot. That is on all shots, but includes Portland's .305 FTRate. But the thing about those 2-for-1 opportunities the Blazers chase, you can't just multiply some imagined rate X2; that's because way too often the first shot they take sucks ass just like Ant's shot did tonight. Portland almost never gets to the FT line on that first shot

I'm not saying that the Blazers shouldn't look for those chances. I'm just saying they should not chuck up a shitty shot just because there's 32 seconds left in a Q

 

I hate even debating terms "good" vs "ok" vs "great" vs "bad" vs "shitty" because they are highly subjective terms, and therefore near meaningless. Your "bad shot" might look differen than what I consider a "bad shot"

Take your theory to Cory Jez, he could give you the raw numbers on it. It's possible all the NBA coaches and analytic guys who coach to this theory are wrong. I'm open to the data either way.

 

Trying to figure out Sharp’s impact on this team right now.

 

I like Sharpe's potential (as I believe you do as well). Having said that, I can imagine you'll get some of the same stock responses to this question as we've got with others in the past:

• He'd be so much better if <<coach>> ran plays for him
• He'd be so much better if <<top players>> passed him the ball
• He'd be so much better if <<coach>> had confidence in him
• He'd be so much better if <<coach>> gave him consistent minutes
• He'd be so much better if <<coach>> didn't pull him after he makes one mistake. <<top player(s)>> can make 3 mistakes and gets to stay in the game.

Fact of the matter is Sharpe is a raw talent, learning the NBA game. Now he's dealing with being on the other teams scouting report, taking care of his body during long road trips, etc. He's got a long way to go.

 

I don't have any numbers to point to, but just watching the games it sure looks/feels like the first shot is almost treated as a throwaway or a "free shot" or something like that.