Mentioned this in another thread but what about trading one of our young guys like Little to Chicago and we get our pick back from them. This would free up our future picks. Little is just an example maybe Keon plus 2nd rounder. Assuming there’s someone there at 23 we might like.
You're acting like we owe Chicago the Knicks pick or something. If we were picking at 23 I doubt we would be doing what we promised Dame we would... if there was a guy at 23, there are a lot of other ways to convey what we owe to Chicago. If we're going through a youth rebuild we probably won't have to worry about owing Chicago the pick for a couple of years. I'm not against trading someone we don't see as fitting in with the team's future to fulfill what we owe Chicago but the situation is very fluid and Joe has already said he has a deal in place if we need to fulfill our commitment to the Bulls in order to have access to more picks for a big deal.
The Blazers are currently sitting in the 5th position with the following odds in the lottery: #1: 10.5% #2: 10.5% #3: 10.6% #4: 10.5% #5: 2.2% #6: 19.6% #7: 26.7% #8: 8.7% #9: 0.6% The Blazers most likely draft position to end up with is the #7 pick. What can they expect from the #7 pick? History tells us that the #7 pick will result in a starter 71.4% of the time, and an all-star 14.3% of the time. We can also see that the production of the picks drops off significantly after the 5th pick. If the Blazers get the 5th pick, their odds increase to 85.7% for a starter and 42.9% for an all-star. Looking at those odds, my take is that if the Blazer are lucky and land in the top 5, keep the pick. You don't trade away a future all-star on a rookie contract. If the Blazers land outside the top 5, trade the pick if they can get an established all-star, since the odd of that pick becoming an all-start at some point is only 14.3%.
When we look at any one pick individually the odds are actually really low that we get that specific pick. The truth is we have around a 44.3% chance of picking 5 or higher and a 55.7% chance at getting moved back. We actually have a better chance of landing a top three pick than we do specifically landing at 7. So yeah the odds are slighting against us getting a top 5 pick but only slightly.
The last three Blazer rookies that were drafted with the 6th or 7th pick: Shaedon Sharpe Damian Lillard Brandon Roy
This is how I look at it too. A 27% chance we end up at 7th, but a 32% chance of ending up with a top 3 pick, and a 42% chance of ending up with a top 4 pick. The 5th pick is basically irrelevant.
Love this kinda analysis. Well done. Only caveat is that not all drafts are the same. In my mostly shallow dive into the players this year, I'm not seeing the kinda star potential below 2.
I don't think anyone wants some Olshey shit this time around. Either we use and keep the picks that we have along with Shae and probably Ant to start a youth rebuild or we use everything at our disposal to make a move or moves that are much much more than marginal improvements.
Or package a top pick (outside #1, we drafting wemby in that scenario) with player/s (not named sharpe) and/or more draft capital for a significant improvement
If Dame was ever going to ask out, it would’ve happened a long time ago. Only way he leaves is if we decide to move on.
That just isn't what he has sounded like this off season. I don't think Dame will have to ask out because I believe him when he says that he told the team he isn't down with more young guys and isn't going to do a rebuild with youth. So Dame is making management decide between what he wants and trading him. How else can you interpret what Dame has said? He has not been cryptic this off season. He has said he is not down with draft picks... before that he was very complementary of Wemby so I think Wemby is the exception but Dame said get him win now players... he didn't give the team an or else he just said he wasn't on board with anything else. So you are right, Dame won't demand a trade because he has set his terms and the only option if the team isn't going to meet his terms is to trade him. Now I don't think Dame would ask out publicly, undercutting the team or sit out games, also undercutting the team... I just think Dame thinks that the team will respect what he has requested and what he has said Joe is on the same page with. I do not think we will have to find out about trades though. I think regardless of if it takes every draft pick we can make available, this team will have high impact veterans on it that weren't on it last season.
Just because Dame doesn’t want young players doesn’t mean he would leave if we did use the pick. He’s just saying what he prefers but he has said OVER AND OVER that he wants to play his whole career in Portland. We just tanked TWICE and he hasn’t asked out.
He literally said multiple times this off season that he is not here or not on board with the team building through the draft. He has also said he thinks the team is on the same page as him. He has always said that he will be here as long as the team wants him here but he understands it's a business. I the team doesn't want to try and win during Dame's prime they will obviously choose to move on from him... or I guess they could just disrespect the greatest player in team history year after year until he retires. I actually think that Dame has a limit, not to his loyalty to the team or the city but his loyalty to the people making money off of his name if they blatantly show they aren't going to respect his wishes. Again, I don't think this conversation matters much though because I think Cronin will capitulate to Dames demands.
Just a point of detail. He said he's not down with 19-year-olds unless it's someone exceptional. There are draftees that don't fit that profile.
I missed this. When did he say he wasn't down with building through the draft beyond the 19-year-olds comment?
I've been saying for weeks, this doesn't occur in a vacuum, and I would like to think Dame could see the intelligence in bringing in young talent if the alternative is trading for more of the kind of veteran talent we've been bringing in that hasn't moved the needed. If he can't, then the organization unfortunately needs to consider biting the bullet and trading him despite the public outcry. One would hope he'd be sensible, though, understanding the needle-movers might not be available and trading for the second coming of Nurk or Grant probably isn't worth it in a draft this strong at the top and deep.
