whoever is drafting him will be red shirting him in the g-league, rebuilding the shot, and force feeding him usage to grow his game. he's a bigger matisse thybulle, which has 'some' value in the nba but not a ton.
Every year around this time I like to take a look at the draft from the stats perspective. Here are some of my results for this year: The 'Advanced Stat's' column is made up of a weighted balance of a handful of common advanced stats (PER, BPM, USG...). I then increase or decrease that rating based on their Age, Team SOS, and Team W/L (taking into account MP). I then balance all of the weighting factors to line up with the success of previous years. And there you have it. Of course no rating system is perfect. It just gives us an idea of where certain players fall compared to other players. There are always a handful of busts at the top of the list, and always a handful of players lower on the list that surprise. Just for fun, here's last year's list: And here's a look at 2019: This stats analysis only takes into account NCAA players. No G-League or international. Here's a look at my overall 2024 big-board: Looking forward to June 26 & 27! (Draft Days)
@42N8Bounce I don't agree with how age and w/l are weighed, but gotta appreciate the effort. As such, i see obvious bias towards guys from Kentucky where one and done players win a lot.
Yep. I guess he was injured a lot this year. He had a pedestrian 15.7 PER along with a dismal BPM (box plus minus) of 3.9 (average in draft is around 7.5). Mediocre Orat & Drat. He's young (19.6 y/o) and had some nice combine numbers (3/4 sprint of 3.06 was 9th best).
Age certainly is a factor that's tough to overcome. But each year we see an 'old guy' break the norm and succeed where 10 others in his circumstance did not.
I used a balance of PER, BPM, USG, etc. I essentially started with an advanced stat then continued to add others with weighting factors to watch how previous years balanced out.
Thanks. I would add a factor then watch how that change cascaded into previous draft years. Age was definitely a large factor in future NBA success. WL (along with strength of schedule) did show a correlation to future success after I took into account minutes played by a player.
Interesting that the first guys on the list is one of the smallest in the draft, and the next 4 are the biggest.
I wonder if Jarace Walker can be had from Indy, he's way down in the depth chart and Carlisle has hardly played him, he'd get a lot of minutes here, wonder what Indy would want?
I'm gonna laugh so hard when LeBron doesn't sign with the Suns and this was all about maneuvering Bronny into the first round.
