Event 2025 NBA DRAFT LOTTERY, COMBINE, AND DRAFT

and one year further away from your massive 2nd contract.

 

But, his second contract would be worth significantly more by postponing it another year, with how fast things are going up.

 

1. It would depend how he performed and part of how he performed would be measured by who he was drafted with.

2. Even so, the amount of more money he would get through a one-year increase of the salary scale wouldn't be enough to offset what he was getting in the extra year of a professional contract. And the difference between being the first pick and third pick in the most recent draft was $4 million.

 

#1 is a cop-out. There's no way of measuring that hypothetical. #2 would need some math as supporting evidence. If he times it right to where the next contract is worth $5-10M more per year, that could indeed offset the extra pro year. Plus, add in the NIL money of the extra non-pro year.

 

For many, college is the most fun time in their lives. I know I was not ready to leave after 4 years. Flagg is not a running back where one hit could ruin his career. The guy will make hundreds of millions of dollars in his career either way. He just turned 18, I doubt he cares about what age he hits the supermax. I say enjoy college life while you can. Two semesters is not enough when you are that young. Take the millions Duke will pay you to stay.

 

Flagg had a great game and I think he will eventually be the leader of any team he goes to. He really seems to be a fierce competitor. Even in a college game that really doesn't mean much, he is out there going nuts.

 

Unless a particular NBA team is just not what he wants and no trade of him is possible — then I’d be shocked if he stayed in college. The dude likes competition and college won’t cut it.

 

his prime window is finite, you still gun to hit the 2nd deal as soon as possible no matter what.

NIL is a drop in the bucket compared to what he'll make YoY later in the NBA.

 

Totally. He has what seems to be a really fierce competitiveness about him

 

Jalen Brunson took that gamble.

 

I don't remember Brunson being projected in the lottery in 2017, and he was picked 33rd in 2018. That's a big difference from being the no-contest No. 1 pick in your draft or coming back and maybe getting picked third.

 

Did you really not understand that I was referring to his most recent contract, or were you being intentionally dense?

 

I think I like Jase Richardson more than VJ Edgecombe long term.

Year younger and actually looks like a guy that could develop into a high usage on ball guy down the road. VJ's handle is so weak and has little change of speed or direction with the ball. Poor half court finisher and doesn't get there much either.

Like Jase's off ball play more as well. Quicker and shifter playing playing off closeouts and miles ahead as a finisher in the half court.

 

My Pre March Madness Top 25

Cooper Flagg
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Dylan Harper
Jase Richardson
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Nolan Traore
Derik Queen
Ace Bailey
Kon Knueppel
Jeremiah Fears
Collin Murray-Boyles
Kasparas Jakucionis
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VJ Edgecombe
Tre Johnson
Kahman Maluach
Thomas Sorber
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Noa Essengue
Liam McNeeley
Kanon Catchings
Labaron Philon
Carter Bryant
Asa Newell
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Egor Demin
Ben Saraf
Rasheer Fleming
Adou Thiero
Noah Penda

 

What about Johni Broome?

 

I haven't watched him closely enough to have an opinion.

But an old non shooting big who's not great on D has me pretty low on his chances sticking.

He's been really good this year though. Old school / Greg Monroe type game

 

Are they ordered by your preference within each tier (Nolan your top tier 3 guy) or just an unordered list of everyone you place in that tier?

 

Unordered

 

That's why it's important to look at traits that stars have prior to entering the NBA and compare current prospects to that.

Let's take a look at this guy, as an example:



A star SG or SF should have shot creation and enough ball handling ability to support it. Tightening it up can come later but if they don't have any ball handling abilities, they're not likely to develop it historically.

Since MJ was "average" as a ball handler and merely needed to tighten it up, that shouldn't really be too much of a concern unless he was simply lazy...which, he wasn't. Additionally, he had enough other traits to back him up - a jumper (even if he was 'streaky' at 21 y/o), the ability to attack the rim at will with his tremendous vertical and first step.

Essentially, shot creation compliments and partially negates these ball handling weaknesses.

Additionally, I want to add that all-around Superstar SGs tend to drop far more than they should. In most re-drafts, these guys would end up #1 or #2 but often fall to #3-6 (ex. Carter, Wade, Roy, Jordan, Harden) with a few of them hitting #12-14 like Drexler and Kobe. Even Edwards was looked down upon as a poor #1 pick back in 2020.

In that sense, maybe GMs would want to look at what type of player these SGs were prior to the draft and compare to see if there are similar prospects rather than glossing over them.

Smooth and quick first step (doesn't have to be lightning fast, just fluid and quick), ball handling that can be tightened up as a minimum, can attack the rim very well, has flashes of other skills, 6'4"-6'7" height and 6'8"-7'+ wingspan, good athleticism, good vertical, etc.

I don't think anyone in the draft has this so trying to look for D-Wade is probably not feasible here. But next year, that appears to be Darryn Peterson.

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Since you're responding to a comment about Rasheer Flemming and Portland might be looking at him. He's very quick and agile for a 240lb player that it's difficult to compare him to other players since it's such a rare set of traits to have. On the surface, I think he has potential to be an Obi Toppin/Cam Whitmore hybrid but with potentially better shooting. But utilizing those two as comps, is he a 3/4 or a 4/5 then?

If he can play 3/4, that's closer to Lebron territory in that, it's incredibly rare to have a player that can run and handle the ball while being 240+ lbs like him. Giannis is similar, too.

But I say Cam Whitmore here because he does have a similar athleticism and big body that he can bully others with but doesn't seem to have a passing game. Jerami Grant might be another example but he's thinner.

Likewise, I think Obi Toppin was similar but in the NBA, he's relegated to being a 4/5 so it's possible that's what he'll end up.

Someone brought up how he doesn't move his hips like a big man and imo, that is what makes him different from, say, Kel'El Ware, who is similar in terms of weight and lankiness but has that Aldridge/O'Neal kind of movement.

If Rasheer does play 4/5, that probably will limit him in that role similar to Obi Toppin.

But if he can find a way to be a bigger Cam Whitmore with MPJ type shooting, that might be like a "Two Level scorer". Then, who knows if he can build up playmaking? He has shown some flashes.

Nonetheless, I think a player like that is who Portland should gamble on if they don't beat the odds and get a Top 3 pick.

Every year, there is an All-Star in that #8-16 region so, might as well try to find the traits for a successful archetype and I think Flemming seems to be the most likely candidate here as a bigger Cam Whitmore who could turn into a bigger Kawhi if he cracks the code or as an Obi Toppin-esque forward that can potentially be a better shooter and defender.

 

This is your top 25? I hope you are right. Having all 3 of these options at 10 isn't bad.

Kasparas Jakucionis
VJ Edgecombe
Tre Johnson