40 Mock Draft Sites - Consensus Picks

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by espn_hall_of_famer, Jun 21, 2012.

  1. espn_hall_of_famer

    espn_hall_of_famer Active Member

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    For those of you stat nerds, here's a little info that I pulled together using some technology. Thought I'd share...


    http://www.iamatrailblazersfan.com/ArticleDisplay/tabid/120/ItemID/3104/Default.aspx


    Consensus #1 overall = Anthony Davis - all 40 select him (similar to LeBron, Blake Griffin and Oden in prior drafts).

    Consensus #2 overall = Thomas Robinson - 24 of the 40, with MKG a distant second at 9 of 40.

    Consensus #3 overall = Beal at 18 and MKG at 13 pretty much dominate this pick.

    Consensus for Odds of coming to Portland = Drummond and Lillard both sitting at 17 votes each, equal the best chances of being in a Blazer uniform next season.

    Consensus for our #6 pick - Drummond, Lillard own over two-thirds of the votes. Beal in a distant 3rd and nobody else really has a chance at this point.

    Consensus for our #11 pick - All over the board. Tied right now with Waiters, Zeller, & Lillard all at 7 votes taking up over 50% of the odds. A litany of 7 players make up those remaining 19 votes between them.
     
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  2. The_Lillard_King

    The_Lillard_King Westside

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    Thanks for the stats. From someone who hasn't really studied the players or know much about them, this is a nice summary of top names.

    There is the obvious #1 and it sounds like many are putting Robinson in his own tier below Davis. Your stats sort of point to a solid 4 in Davis, Robinson, MKG and Beal.

    Wish we had a top 4 pick . . .
     
  3. espn_hall_of_famer

    espn_hall_of_famer Active Member

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    Actually, this draft class has been long noted for the talent on it for the top 6 players, and with the performances and analysis going on with Lillard, it has really turned it into one of those great draft classes of all time (much like the 96 draft with Iverson, Camby, Marbury, Ray Allen, Kobe, Nash, etc., or even the more recent '03 draft with LeBron, Melo, Kaman, Wade, & Bosh drafts). So having a top 7 pick among this 2012 draft is really the key spot to be in.
     
  4. The_Lillard_King

    The_Lillard_King Westside

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    It might be a great top 6, but it doesn't sound like as first advertised which was: after #1, 2-6 is anyone's guess and they all have the same odds of breaking thru.

    I was hoping that was the case, but seems there is so much consensus on the top 4 players . . . in other words I was hoping that for the #2 pick or #3 pick, the draft boards would be all over the map because different people are picking different players as the 2nd best and 3rd best.

    So Robinson and MKG getting 33 out of 40 votes for the #2 pick tells me after Davis there are two choices and not 5 for that 2nd pick. Beal and MKG getting 32 40 shows there is 2 choices and not 4 (makes sense?). . . anyways I know this is a crude method of analysis filled with holes . . . just surprised there is as much of a consensus as your data shows for the top 3.
     
  5. espn_hall_of_famer

    espn_hall_of_famer Active Member

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    Good points. But in a way I think they are just solidifying their positions. IE - I think it was clear in 2003 that LeBron was #1 and all 40 mocks that year had LeBron #1, so there wasn't a lot of variance there (much like Anthony Davis this year). But there wasn't a tier that said next was simply Melo and Bosh and that was it. It was this cluster of Melo, Bosh, Wade, Kaman, etc. that were all top 6-7 picks in a very deep front-end draft. So it is much like this year. Now that said, when we got down to one week away from draft, we knew Melo was going #2-#5, we knew Kaman was going #4-#6, Wade would go around #5-#7, etc. So there was still very much tiering going like you see between MKG being a top 3 pick, Beal being likely #3-#5, Barnes being #4-#7, etc. We're getting similar tiering. So it wasn't like Wade and Bosh ended up turning out way below Melo and Darko, just happens to be where they landed with the final shuffle between that big cluster of great draftees.
     
  6. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    Great now I'm even more confused!
     
  7. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

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    Don't you have to throw out mocks that are obviously off? I mean, anyone that puts us taking Sullinger or Zeller at 6 should have their mock card removed.
     
  8. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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