I can't help but notice it seems guard heavy... I think your "ballhog" variable might be too tough on big men? Since they don't really share the ball like a guard does
And it does seem interesting how the top 3 rim protecters have slid. Maybe that's not shunned for enough? Just my honest thoughts, still good work and I can tell you took a lot of time on this.
Hickory-High (no longer exists for whatever reason) rated Crowder extremely high. Wright is dropping while younger 'upside' prospects are rising. Delon will turn 24 during his rookie season.
I'd like a tall defensive minded PG that can shoot decently because they very possibly could play SG with Lillard, at 6' 5" Delow could do that - is his outside shooting "good enough"?
Yes. That was me. I've modified the system quite a bit over the past three years. I take each draft and add the additional players into the comparison database so it gets a bit 'smarter' each year. Although with each modification to the system, it changes it's past draft choices. As noted in a post above, it now likes Jae Crowder as the 3rd choice during that draft. A bit high overall, but much better than a second round choice.
I've heard people question Wright's outside shot. He shot 26/73 (35.6%) over the past year. Although he only took about 2 per game, I'd say that is solid.
It always takes at least 3-4 years before you can accurately measure the quality of a draft. It looks like most years you get 12-15 solid starters and about 20 good bench/role players. I'd say this draft is right in par with past numbers. What I don't see in this draft is any franchise players. I thinks Towns and Okafor, and perhaps Russell will all be solid starters, it might take them quite a while to get to the All Star level. Although almost every draft has somebody like Paul George that steps up late in the draft and surprises/overachieves...
Yes "good enough". He shot 55% from 2Pt and 35.6 on 3's. (83.5% FT) while averaging 15.7 ppg. (Along with 5 assists and 5 rebounds per game) Obviously from those stats he has a well rounded game. I am surprised some mocks have him so low. The more I think about it, I doubt he will be there at 23 and that sucks because he would definitely fill a need.
NO seems to like experienced guards (Dame, CJ, Crabbe). Delon sounds like a natural choice for him. It makes sense, especially if it increases our chances of keeping Dorell for cheap as well.
I see one mock where he goes 21 to Dallas. That makes a lot of sense for them especially if they keep Monta Ellis. (Which I assume they will) He would be perfect next to him for similar reasons that he would fit in well next to Dame and CJ.
Yeah, that was a tough metric to incorporate. I tried to look at the big men stats and set it at a threshold that made the most sense for them.
Those defense metrics are the toughest. I think the matching criteria helped balance that a bit. In this year's draft, WCS is ranked a bit lower than I though probably because it couldn't measure his defensive impact, and couldn't find a good successful/comparable match. The 'eye test' is a bit difficult to quantify.
I have about 70 players that I took into account for the 2015 draft. I put in any player that I saw on any of the top draft boards. Warren Gillis. Coastal Carolina? Well, that's one I didn't have on the list. He rates a BdB score of 6.0. I think he gets hit hard on their Strength of Schedule and he's also a senior. You have to have some pretty impressive stats if you're "old" and from a small school. Boatright measured out as the smallest player in the draft, with the shortest wingspan. As a point guard, he only had a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio. He shot well from 3 point range, but only 43% from 2pt range. He got a BdB score of 20.2. He's got a lot to overcome there if he's going to be successful at the NBA level. He's shown on some mock drafts as late second round. Aaron White had some good numbers. He came in at 22 on my list with a BdB score of 43.3. Iowa had a tough SOS, and did very respectable W/L as a team. He's an efficient scorer, plus a good rebounder. He's in that range where he's got a shot at hanging on with an NBA team. He's shown on some mock drafts as mid second round. He might be a good pick in that range.
gotcha. Maybe you could do a combination of shooting% and points to assist ratio. If a guy is getting 20 ppg and 1ast, but he's shooting over 50%, then it's not a problem that he's taking all the shots, know what I mean? Plus big men usually shoot a higher % with less assists so it could be balanced. And it'd still do it's job to negatively affect the type of ballhog who scores 16 a game, shoots 40% FG - 30% 3P, while only getting 1 assist per game
For anyone interested, draftexpress has a decent article where 4-5 different guys give a short explain action of how they come up with their ratings and gave their top 10.
Good read. Thanks. It's interesting that 4 out of the 5 had Delon Wright in their top 12. Only the second one (Steve Shea) didn't have Delon. He was also the only one that had Cameron Payne on his list. I've got Payne at #4, and Wright at #10. I've seen Trey Lykes ranked pretty high in a lot of mocks. My BdB ranking has him at #22. He doesn't show up in the top 14 for any of these analysts. Kevin Looney shows up on all 5 of these lists. My rankings have him at #19. A BdB score of 45.5 - a top reserve. Outside of the top 3, there's a lot of uncertainty. That's what makes the draft so fun.
I can't find his posts. You mean he's been erased from history? Where are his posts? Alright! Next time Denny belittles my memory I'll cite this post. Believe it or not, I've thought of your threads oh, about once a week for the last 3 years. Here they are. Anyone who likes this current thread should check out your old threads. http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/the-best-way-to-predict-the-future.215025/ http://www.sportstwo.com/threads/busts-and-gems.215557/
