A Statistical look at the 2015 NBA Draft

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by 42N8Bounce, May 26, 2015.

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  1. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    Hickory-High was a solid analytical site.

    Ed Weidland's HoopsAnalyst.com is another great one.
     
    Fez Hammersticks, May 27, 2015
    #41
  2. Blazer4ever

    Blazer4ever Finding a Way BANNED

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    I think that's the system biggest weakness then. If Gillis gets a 6.0 rating there's too much emphasis on SoS, also may be the reason Lillard was just 10th.
     
    Blazer4ever, May 27, 2015
    #42
  3. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    Looking at the small school players - This year I've got Cameron Payne rated #4. He's from Murry State. That's quite a bit higher than most boards show him. Tyler Harvey from Eastern Washington is rated higher than most boards show him coming in at #27.

    Here are Warren Gillis' numbers: Coastal Carolina, 6'3", 13.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 0.1 bpg, 1.4 spg, 2.2 fpg, 2.6 tpg, 43.7% fg, 30.6% 3pt. The main goal of my rating system is a predictor of NBA success. Is a BdB score of 6.0 too low? Perhaps. But I give it pretty long odds that he plays a game in the NBA. Stranger things have happened though I guess.

    You've hit a key component of any rating system. Comparing a Duke player to a Coastal Carolina player. A rebound at one school isn't equal to a rebound at another school. Rating players from small schools is hit-and-miss. Lillard was a bit of an exception as far as small school success. I certainly liked him going into the draft, and this version of my rating system only had him at #10. Being a Blazer fan, I'm certainly glad he proved that to be too low.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2015
    42N8Bounce, May 28, 2015
    #43
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  4. Blazer4ever

    Blazer4ever Finding a Way BANNED

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    I still think maybe the emphasis on strength of schedule is too big. For example, how does a player like CJ rate on your system? He also came from a relatively small school.
    With Gillis I think his numbers also went up through his college career. I'm not sure but I think the numbers you've listed are throughout his college career and don't reflect his year-by-year improvement. Another issue I have is with Seniors getting a lower grade. The best Blazer guards of the decade were seniors (Roy, Lillard, Wesley, CJ) and I think from my experience as a fan, this proved to be a plus rather than a minus.
    Anyway, the results your system showed are very interesting, some very good non-obvious predictions that you made.
     
    Blazer4ever, May 28, 2015
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  5. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    tester551, May 28, 2015
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  6. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Wow, everybody's numbers like Kevon Looney. Also Delon Wright. And apparently Russell should absolutely go #1. Wonder what Minny could get for Rubio and Pekovic if they really had the balls to go for it.

    (It's bad enough we have a Boozer in the NBA, now we're about to get a Looney?)
     
    Rastapopoulos, May 28, 2015
    #46
  7. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Rastapopoulos, May 28, 2015
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  8. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    What about Seth Tuttle?



     
    Last edited: May 28, 2015
    Rastapopoulos, May 28, 2015
    #48
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  9. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    CJ came in at #10 with a BdB score of 45.6. Top reserve.
    Brandon Roy came in #2 with a BdB score of 67.0. Interesting results that year: 1. Tyrus Thomas, 3. Paul Millsap, 4. Shelden Williams, 5. Marcus Williams, 6. Adam Morrison, 7. Rudy Gay, 8. JJ Redic, 9. Ronnie Brewer, 10. Rodney Carney, 11. Rajon Rondo. Lamarcus was down at 14. You win some, you lose some.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2015
    42N8Bounce, May 28, 2015
    #49
  10. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    Corey Hawkins, a 6'3" guard from California Davis. He came in with a BdB score of 21.8. Not bad. He wasn't on my original list, but he cracks the top 60. He's definitely a good shooter, but of course the question is - can he do that against NBA competition? Decent rebounder for his size, grabbing almost 5 a game. For being 6'3", he only has a 1.12 assist/turnover ratio. He's also a senior, and on the older side of that class also. Most seniors are about 22.5 years old. He's about 23.8.
     
    42N8Bounce, May 28, 2015
    #50
  11. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Wow, I totally forgot JJ Redick was that draft. Wow, he's old. Wow, I'm REALLY old.

    And yes, apart from Millsap (and Roy, of course), those results are pretty catastrophic.
     
    Rastapopoulos, May 28, 2015
    #51
  12. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Here's a question for you, 42NBounce: who's the best NBA player with the WORST score according to your system?
     
    Rastapopoulos, May 28, 2015
    #52
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  13. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    Nice find there. Seth Tuttle from Northern Iowa came in with a 35.2 BdB score. That puts him at about #38 on my list. Not too bad. That's in the range where they've got a shot at being drafted and getting some playing time. 15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 43.2% 3 point shooter, 60.4% fg. Being a senior from a small school, most GMs will probably over look him because of his 'limited upside'. He definitely could be a 'sleeper'.
     
    42N8Bounce, May 28, 2015
    #53
  14. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Hmm...can't handle the ball well enough to play on the perimeter, not big or athletic enough to play in the post. I don't think he has an NBA future. Unless he figures out a way to transition to the 3, he's D-League at best.
     
    PtldPlatypus, May 28, 2015
    #54
  15. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    You're talking about Matt Bonner, right?
     
    Rastapopoulos, May 28, 2015
    #55
  16. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    Fun question.
    Here are a few 'misses' from 2002 - 2011:
    - 2011, Chandler Parsons, 31.8 (#36), Jimmy Butler, 38.4 (#20)
    - 2010, Avery Bradley, 35.3 (#36), Paul George 45.2 (#17)
    - 2009, Wesley Matthews, 34.7 (#28), Darren Collison, 35.7 (#25)
    - 2008, Robin Lopez, 34.3 (#35), Brook Lopez, 47.3 (#15)
    - 2007, Al Thornton, 29.1 (#38)
    - 2006, Randy Foye, 26.2 (#34), Lamarcus Aldridge, 44.9 (#14)
    - 2005, David Lee, 36.7 (#26), Deron Williams, 47.4 (#16)
    - 2003, Mo Williams, 24.9 (#33)
    - 2002, Tayshaun Prince, 34.5 (#22)
     
    42N8Bounce, May 28, 2015
    #56
  17. BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94

    BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94 AWOL

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    I truly think Russell should go 1st. I don't think Towns is gonna be that great. However, I know bigs are always the players to go to for long term success.
     
    BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94, May 28, 2015
    #57
  18. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    Great read. Thanks for sharing.
     
    PCmor7, May 28, 2015
    #58
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  19. Fez Hammersticks

    Fez Hammersticks スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    At the same age Jefferson was every bit as skilled as Okafor. Towns seems more Horford than Bynum.

    Looney's advanced stats are surprising. His defensive potential is there.
     
    Fez Hammersticks, May 28, 2015
    #59
  20. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    A lot of the mocks and analysts like Looney. He was #18 in the NCAA with 15 double-doubles. Season averages of 11.6 ppg, and 9.2 rpg. Although when UCLA played a ranked team, his stats dipped to 9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and UCLA went 1 W & 7 L. He didn't play his best ball when facing the top talent.
     
    42N8Bounce, May 28, 2015
    #60
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