I think that's the system biggest weakness then. If Gillis gets a 6.0 rating there's too much emphasis on SoS, also may be the reason Lillard was just 10th.
Looking at the small school players - This year I've got Cameron Payne rated #4. He's from Murry State. That's quite a bit higher than most boards show him. Tyler Harvey from Eastern Washington is rated higher than most boards show him coming in at #27. Here are Warren Gillis' numbers: Coastal Carolina, 6'3", 13.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.2 apg, 0.1 bpg, 1.4 spg, 2.2 fpg, 2.6 tpg, 43.7% fg, 30.6% 3pt. The main goal of my rating system is a predictor of NBA success. Is a BdB score of 6.0 too low? Perhaps. But I give it pretty long odds that he plays a game in the NBA. Stranger things have happened though I guess. You've hit a key component of any rating system. Comparing a Duke player to a Coastal Carolina player. A rebound at one school isn't equal to a rebound at another school. Rating players from small schools is hit-and-miss. Lillard was a bit of an exception as far as small school success. I certainly liked him going into the draft, and this version of my rating system only had him at #10. Being a Blazer fan, I'm certainly glad he proved that to be too low.
I still think maybe the emphasis on strength of schedule is too big. For example, how does a player like CJ rate on your system? He also came from a relatively small school. With Gillis I think his numbers also went up through his college career. I'm not sure but I think the numbers you've listed are throughout his college career and don't reflect his year-by-year improvement. Another issue I have is with Seniors getting a lower grade. The best Blazer guards of the decade were seniors (Roy, Lillard, Wesley, CJ) and I think from my experience as a fan, this proved to be a plus rather than a minus. Anyway, the results your system showed are very interesting, some very good non-obvious predictions that you made.
What's your thoughts on Corey Hawkins? This article pegs him as one of the best shooters in the draft... https://sports.yahoo.com/news/ranking-the-2015-nba-draft-s-top-shooters-012046574.html
Wow, everybody's numbers like Kevon Looney. Also Delon Wright. And apparently Russell should absolutely go #1. Wonder what Minny could get for Rubio and Pekovic if they really had the balls to go for it. (It's bad enough we have a Boozer in the NBA, now we're about to get a Looney?)
CJ came in at #10 with a BdB score of 45.6. Top reserve. Brandon Roy came in #2 with a BdB score of 67.0. Interesting results that year: 1. Tyrus Thomas, 3. Paul Millsap, 4. Shelden Williams, 5. Marcus Williams, 6. Adam Morrison, 7. Rudy Gay, 8. JJ Redic, 9. Ronnie Brewer, 10. Rodney Carney, 11. Rajon Rondo. Lamarcus was down at 14. You win some, you lose some.
Corey Hawkins, a 6'3" guard from California Davis. He came in with a BdB score of 21.8. Not bad. He wasn't on my original list, but he cracks the top 60. He's definitely a good shooter, but of course the question is - can he do that against NBA competition? Decent rebounder for his size, grabbing almost 5 a game. For being 6'3", he only has a 1.12 assist/turnover ratio. He's also a senior, and on the older side of that class also. Most seniors are about 22.5 years old. He's about 23.8.
Wow, I totally forgot JJ Redick was that draft. Wow, he's old. Wow, I'm REALLY old. And yes, apart from Millsap (and Roy, of course), those results are pretty catastrophic.
Here's a question for you, 42NBounce: who's the best NBA player with the WORST score according to your system?
Nice find there. Seth Tuttle from Northern Iowa came in with a 35.2 BdB score. That puts him at about #38 on my list. Not too bad. That's in the range where they've got a shot at being drafted and getting some playing time. 15.3 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 3.3 apg, 43.2% 3 point shooter, 60.4% fg. Being a senior from a small school, most GMs will probably over look him because of his 'limited upside'. He definitely could be a 'sleeper'.
Hmm...can't handle the ball well enough to play on the perimeter, not big or athletic enough to play in the post. I don't think he has an NBA future. Unless he figures out a way to transition to the 3, he's D-League at best.
Fun question. Here are a few 'misses' from 2002 - 2011: - 2011, Chandler Parsons, 31.8 (#36), Jimmy Butler, 38.4 (#20) - 2010, Avery Bradley, 35.3 (#36), Paul George 45.2 (#17) - 2009, Wesley Matthews, 34.7 (#28), Darren Collison, 35.7 (#25) - 2008, Robin Lopez, 34.3 (#35), Brook Lopez, 47.3 (#15) - 2007, Al Thornton, 29.1 (#38) - 2006, Randy Foye, 26.2 (#34), Lamarcus Aldridge, 44.9 (#14) - 2005, David Lee, 36.7 (#26), Deron Williams, 47.4 (#16) - 2003, Mo Williams, 24.9 (#33) - 2002, Tayshaun Prince, 34.5 (#22)
I truly think Russell should go 1st. I don't think Towns is gonna be that great. However, I know bigs are always the players to go to for long term success.
At the same age Jefferson was every bit as skilled as Okafor. Towns seems more Horford than Bynum. Looney's advanced stats are surprising. His defensive potential is there.
A lot of the mocks and analysts like Looney. He was #18 in the NCAA with 15 double-doubles. Season averages of 11.6 ppg, and 9.2 rpg. Although when UCLA played a ranked team, his stats dipped to 9.1 ppg, 6.4 rpg, and UCLA went 1 W & 7 L. He didn't play his best ball when facing the top talent.
