Accept Miami Deal or bring Lillard to Camp?

Ah, Joe finally picked up the phone?

 

No, but just because a couple of teams gave up too much to get Gobert or Mitchell, does not make it the new standard for all trades moving forward. If you wait for it to happen then Dame won't be traded. Only teams who have stock-piled picks and young players can offer something similar. And I don't think young teams want Dame.

 

Except the Blazers? Aren't they the youngest team in the league now?

 

I figured someone would bring that up, but are we sure the Blazers even do? Our fans seem to have moved on.
But regardless, I think the obvious reason Portland offered the max contract to Dame in the first place is because of what he has meant to this organization. He is worth more to Portland than any other team.

 

Nothing else in the last 24 hours since this trade comment.

I do feel like Oct 2 is a bit of a hard deadline. If both sides are close I think they get a deal done then. If a deal isn't done then I think both sides are probably quite a ways apart and Lillard will begin opening night on the Blazers. Both the Heat want Lillard in camp from day 1 to prepare for the season, and the Blazers want to move on to the next chapter.

The Blazers don't want to do media day or practices with the Dame situation unresolved. But if they feel like its only unfair Lillard deals available, I can certainly see them deciding waiting is the better of two poor options. I don't think the Blazer feel they need to win the trade though. If the Blazers view a trade as somewhat close to fair or only a slight loss they will pull the trigger.

 

Oh boy

 

Blazers should insist, Heat don't have many assets so yes they need to empty them.

2028 2030 picks
2027 2029 swaps
Herro
Martin
Jovic
Jaquez

To close a deal I'd probably let the Heat keep any single player but we get everything else. It's still a poor return in a Lillard trade.

If the Heat don't even want to give that up; then bring Dame back. Rather risk he gets traded for worse or injured or who knows what than take a lesser return now of that already poor Miami package.

This shit Miami package with less than what I list is going to be available from now until the deadline. Better to wait and see what else becomes available and wait for December trade restrictions to end.

 

I just do not see value in a Pick Swap.

 

Them figuring out how to get their 2024 pick tradeable and including it should be on the list. I realize that it will be a late first rounder but we all know those are valuable. That's what I would consider scrounging into every nook and cranny. The fact that the Heat don't feel a need to do that means that they don't feel like they need Dame but they've positioned themselves in a way that if they want to contend they now need someone like Dame.

Posturing on both sides.

 

Even with all those players, the salaries don't match. (2 million short) Let alone letting them keep one of them. So yeah we might be better off waiting

 

I don't think it's posturing on Portland's side; I think it's a line in the sand and Miami hasn't come close to approaching that line.

My thinking is that Riley has been low-balling from the start, convinced the inexperienced Cronin will blink first. And all the leaking by Riley and frustration out of Miami is because Cronin hasn't blinked even a little

I'd bet that the offer from Miami started at Herro + Robinson + 2028 first (top-4 protected) + 2030 first (lottery protected). Something ridiculous like that which explains why Portland hasn't shown any urgency to re-engage with the Heat. And that Miami hasn't upped their offer much at all. Miami may have explored trades for Herro but didn't find any team willing to part with a lightly protected 1st and a good player; or they told Portland to shop Herro themselves. I think Portland discovered the same poor market for Ant

my hunch is that the actions of Dame's agent, Dame, and Riley have really antagonized the Blazer front office making them unwilling to compromise. Good for them

those late picks aren't that valuable, especially not for a top-10ish player. A 23rd pic for Hart...OK. A 27th pick for Dame...yuck

besides that, what if the rumors of OKC possibly being interested in a Dame trade themselves are true? If they are holding that as an option, they won't be cooperating with Miami to grease the wheels of a Dame-->Miami deal

 

A pick swap is how the Celtics got Jason Tatum. A swap doesn't always provide value, but when it does the value can be massive!

Yes I'd say most likely the value will be 0 or very little - but it has a very real potential for much more. Especially in 2029, Dame/Butler will be 40 and Riley over 80. That team is emptying assets to win now and very possibly will fail to properly reload later. That is a great time for us to take a roll of the dice on house money, and can be held until that 2029 time or flipped for an upgrade earlier if the Blazers get closer to winning now.

What is the chance the Heat are in the lottery in 2029? Let's say 50/50 even with their aging core that I'd argue is more likely to be in the lottery than not by then. Let's say odds the Blazers are in the playoffs then is also around 50/50, some would argue higher as our youth now should be in their prime then. So that gives us a 25% chance the Blazers upgrade their late pick to a lottery pick, 12.5% chance Blazers swap to better lottery pick, 12.5% chance Blazers swap to better late pick, and 50% chance there is no swap.

One way to grade this is think of the value of the 2030 unprotected pick today. I'd put about 80% of the value of that pick being the chance its in the lottery especially at the top of the lottery. Lottery picks are worth SOOOO much more than a mid to late 1st round pick. The Blazers retain nearly all of those 80% lottery benefits the same in the swap as if they held the pick outright!

So yes the 2028 and 2030 picks are clearly worth more - but that 2029 swap still has the majority of the value of those picks.

 

Adding Nurk/Lowry would make the swap work, or just Lowry if there is a third team. Those two players are just rather irrelevant assets in such a big trade so I don't think it should change either side wanting to accept or walk from a deal.

 

Definitely think there is a chance this is true. If so then is Miami really even making a legit offer? Seems more like a Masai/Morey type of lopsided "offer" just to fleece another team. You would think that should call into question Dame's "one team" stance if that team isn't even making a realistic offer.

Maybe Miami plan is to increase their offer a bunch 48 hours before camp and make it look like they are now really giving up a lot even though its still a very poor return for the Blazers. They are trying to portray that coming offer as a lot by offering so little for all these months.

I hope Cronin and the Blazers hold firm - because if Miami is trying to push for something along those lines it really would be a travesty that will go down in Blazers history to agree to something like this.

 

yep, offer 20 cents for an item worth one dollar then quadruple the offer to 80 cents to make it appear like you're now overpaying

 

I just think we need every pick and swap unprotected that they can "scrounge" up, we need a decent return for Herro from a third team and we need both of their prospects (Jovic and Jaquez)... to get that we would need to send Nurk along with Dame and also take back Lowry. If we can get Martin along with all of that we should but if that is on the table without Martin right before camp then we should pull the trigger. I think anything less, even haggling over protections on picks or swaps should be an automatic "fuck you" from Joe to whoever the fuck he deals with from the Heat (Elisburg or Riley).

 

Good. Fuck 'em.

 

https://reddit.com/r/heat/s/8g31Ua3els