Do you consider JJ Redick a Mediocre player? Because Crabbe through his career is better then JJ was at this point in his career. Crabbe is 25, he hasn't peeked and can still improve his game.
Umm and JJ Redick is making less than $8 mill per year..... How can you compare the two. The talk is of pay based off skill. So Crabbe is a $8 mill player, not $18. See why people are concerned? More so than I, but I see their point.
Reddick signed his deal before the cap boomed and was older and wanted to stay with the Clippers. He is also far from a mediocre player. I wont argue Crabbe is overpaid, you match a player like crabbe, or pay other young talent, with the idea that they will earn their contract by the end of it not at the beginning of it.
We shall have to agree to disagree. I dont think GM's are dumb and I think they all had thier eyes opened to the free spending that has happened and how little it paid off. Mozgov to Lakers, Crabbe, etc. I think $15 mill is tops for JJ and it will be close to $10 mill, so in my opinion the piont is valid and is worth comparing the too. Time will tell, but I am saying JJ signs for no more than $15 and I think it will be less than $13.
He isnt in the same league as Korver imo. He is like a guard version of Meyers. Only shoots when he's wide open, brings zero else to the table, wildly negative defender. I honestly dont give a fuck what percentage he shot from three (same for ML). His positive impact on the game is so insignificant that his only good stat is exactly that.... insignificant. AC was far and away the worst signing (contract+production) I can remember as a blazer fan. 19.3m in salary guaranteed to that POS next year.... but we made the playoffs guys! Stupid Fucking Blazers
do the math as % of the cap and come back.... youre like 40% off what his salary will be. 17-20 is realistically what he will make next year. You do realize Miles Plumlee makes more than that right now right? Difference between Mozgoff crappe and JJ is that JJ is a starter level 2 guard in the NBA and the other two are scrubs who got paid by a fired front office and one that is about to be fired.
Redick made a big jump from his 3rd to 4th years, which isn't uncommon. His PER jumped from 9.9 to 15, where he's remained, more or less, ever since. From his 3rd to 4th seasons, Crabbe's PER actually decreased slightly - from 12.2 to 11.6. His 3FG% improved, but in all other areas, Crabbe's production was flat, or down. And yes, I know the limitations of PER, that it does not adequately comprehend a player's defensive contributions, but let's be honest, neither one of these guys are getting paid for their defense. In the end, it doesn't change the fact that J.J. Redick is, and has been for several years 1.5x the player Allen Crabbe is today. Don't like PER, use PPG, pts/36, pts/100 possessions, made 3FG/game, whatever, in all cases Redick produces at a rate of about 1.5x that of Allen Crabbe. And yes, the cap went way up last summer, but it didn't double or triple. Last season Redick made $7.3 million, the most of his 11-year NBA career. His average yearly salary has been $5 million, which is basically equivalent to the MLE for those 11 years. And Redick has been a starter for half of his career, something Crabbe will never be in Portland (god help us if he is). Kyle Korver, who had led the league in 3FG% four times and has also been a starter for half his career has never made more than $6.7 million in a season. His career average, over 14 season, is $4.4 million/year - less than the MLE. These are two of the best 3-point shooters in the history of the league, who have been starters for half their careers and they get paid, on average MLE, or less, money. So yeah, the cap went up last summer, but no way, no how, do 3-point specialists, even the best in the game who are starters, command over $18 million a year. Crabbe's contract is an albatross around this team's neck. He's going to make $19.3 million next season. No way does either his production or his "potential" justify that kind of money. We never should have matched BRK's offer sheet. We would have been better off to let him walk for nothing. Hopefully, Olshey can find a creative way to dig himself out of the luxury tax hell he has created without having to give up too much of value to do so. Hopefully, at least one other NBA GM is a Crabbe fan boy who only looks at 3FG% and is willing to take on that contract for a one-dimensional bench player. BNM
Every team needs a Korver-level shooter (4-time leader in 3FG%) who gets paid Korver-level money. The most Korver has ever made in his career is $6.76 million. His average salary has been $4.4 million - less than the MLE. The MLE this season was $5.6 million and will go up to $8.3 million in 2017-18 to reflect the surge in salaries due to last summers $24 million increase in the salary cap. Allen Crabbe will make $19.3 million in 2017-18, that's $11 million more than the new, higher MLE (which we won't have because we are over the apron, thanks, in large part, to Crabbe's contract). BNM
Please stop perpetuating this ridiculous myth that Allen Crabbe is a "adequate" defender. He's not. In fact he's awful. His defense stands out as being exceptionally bad on one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Every single stat I can find, basic or advanced, shows Crabbe to be a minus defender, that he gives up more points than he gets. And, since he brings NOTHING else to the table (poor passer, can't create for himself or others, one of the worst rebounders for his size in the entire league), you kind of hope the one thing the $19 million 6th man can do is outscore his man. He can't, and that makes him, and his contract, less than worthless. BNM
I think you missed my point. My point was yes, that money got tosee out there and most teams got burnt by it with players that are now hard to move. I think GM's will look at the spending spree and be more cautious this summer. I think they will look to spread the wealth out a bit more than just inflate a contract or two on a new signing to make up the difference. This may even include giving players bonuses, rather than signing an inflated contract for one guy.
I've been calling Crabbe one-dimensional for months, based on a combination of advanced stats that show he's well below average in most areas other than wide open, catch and shoot 3-point field goal shooting. But, I was curious how he stacked up in overall production compared to other 3-point shooters. So, I ran a little search on basketball-reference.com for the 2015-16 season. In 2015-16, Crabbe was tied for 46th in the league in made 3GFs at 134. So, I ran a query for every player that made at least 134 3FGs and sorted the list by PER (yeah, I know, PER does not adequately comprehend good defense, but neither does Allen Crabbe). Click here for the results. You will see that Crabbe came in 44th of 46 in PER for players who made at least 134 3-pointers. The only two players on that list with a worse PER than Crabbe were Troy Daniels and Tony Snell. Those two players made $3.3 million and $2.4 million in 2016-16. Ok, Snell was still on a rookie contract. so we can toss him out. Daniels, however, just signed his contract last July, same as Crabbe. He is the same age as Crabbe and was coming off a better 2014-15 season than Crabbe. Daniels got a 3-year $10 million contract (that's $10 million total, not $10 million/year) and Crabbe got 4-years and $75 million. In 2017-18, Daniels will make $3.4 and Crabbe will make $19.3 million. Anyone here still think Crabbe is not grotesquely overpaid? Think about that for a second. In last summer's crazy spending spree, Troy Daniels, a 3-point specialist who was the same age as Crabbe and had a better 2015-16 season than Crabbe was available for $3.3 million a year, but we chose to match BRK's $18.5 million a year offer for Allen Crabbe. Proving once again, if all you need is a one-dimensional 3-point specialist, there are plenty of options available for a LOT less money. BNM
And this combined with a year of assessing how things panned out by GM's is the reason JJ wont get more than $12 mill per in my opinion.
The solution is simple - stop overpaying for role players. Don't pay a one-dimensional specialist, who won't even be starting, big bucks. There are always a ton of solid role players available on the cheap that are left looking for homes after all the big names (and not so big names) have gotten the ridiculous contracts. Crabbe and Turner are both grotesquely overpaid role players, Crabbe even more than Turner. Also, don't fall in love with your own players (especially the guys you drafted) if it means overpaying them - especially when there are much cheaper options available. We already have Dame and C.J. locked in on huge contracts, and the Nurk extension is coming soon and sure to be massive. With three huge contracts for our Big 3, we can't afford to severely overpay our role players. It's not just about Paul Allen paying the luxury tax, it's about tying your own hands when it comes to improving your roster. If you're over the apron, which we will be by about $12 million, you get the smaller, shorter Tax Payer MLE, which is 40% less and one year shorter than the Non-Tax Payer full MLE. It also makes doing a sign and trade unlikely, practically impossible in our case, as the only way a team over the apron can execute a sign and trade is if hey are under the apron after the trade. Over paying role players kills your ability to improve your roster. Olshey knows this and he knows he did this to himself, which is why all his comments lately are about growth from within, organic growth and internal player development. He knows he's tied his own hands and now has to hope some of these guys he overpaid improve enough to make a positive impact. Unfortunately Crabbe and Turner pretty much are what they are and Leonard has gotten worse. Crabbe is "only" 25 and is so woefully inadequate at everything other than knocking down wide open shots, he has the most potential for improvement, but so far, he hasn't shown any improvement in other areas of his game. Turner may fit in better once he gets to play with Nurk more, but unless he improves that ugly ass shot, there isn't a lot of upside there. Leonard needs a real big man coach and a good sports psychologist. Given that his contract is half of Crabbe's ($9.9 million this coming season vs. $19.3 million) and he's 7'1", he's probably the easiest to move, but none of them are going to fetch any worthwhile assets in return. Let's hope Neil can pick a gem or two out of the draft as that's our best option to improve this roster in the near future. BNM
I think his age will limit his earning potential. He had a GREAT year in 2015-16 (16.3 ppg, career high PER of 17.5 and a league leading .475 3FG%), but that just makes his 2016-17 look like the start of age based decline. He screwed himself by having his career year one year too soon. BNM
If Crabbe played for another team (and always had), I wonder how many people on this forum would be in favor of trading real assets to get him and his $18M/year salary.
Doesn't the fact that the Blazers won 67% of games in which Crabbe took 10 or more shots run counter to that claim? Or do we simply consider that a "correlation-not-causation" stat?
Not me! Not at that salary. Personally, I think Olshey should take a page out of Pat Riley's book when it comes to signing free agent role players. Sit back and wait until the initial signing frenzy is over and then pick up the leavings on the cheap. Look at these guys Riley signed last summer when guys like Turner was getting $17.5 million a year and Crabbe $18.5 million a year: James Johnson: $4 million/year Wayne Ellington: $6 million/year Dion Waiters: $2.9 million/year Derrick Williams: $4.6 million/year Willie Reed: $1 million/year (league minimum) Total: $22.5 million/year That's a pretty good bench right there (although James Johnson would likely be starting for us) for $22.5 million/year. Compare that to the five guys Olshey signed (not counting C.J.'s extension): Allen Crabbe: $18.5 million/year Evan Turner: $17.5 million/year Meyers Leonard: $10 million/year Maurice Harkless: $10 million/year Festus Ezili: $7.5 million a year Total: $63.5 million/year That's an extra $41 million a year, and we got less out of those 5 than MIA got out of their's. Neil Olshey doesn't deserve valet parking. BNM
I'd be very skeptical of such indirect measures of value. There can be insight in trying to find correlations and patterns, but I think they need to correspond with other more direct reasoning or value measurements. One of the classics for "correlation is not causation" is that deaths by drowning correlate well with ice cream sales. Of course, we can fairly easily deduce that they're not directly connected, they both are related to a separate factor: hot weather, causing more people to swim and more people to eat ice cream. More swimming leads to more deaths by drowning. I think that type of thing tends to underlie a lot of these "weird" correlations. In this case, my guessplanation would be that since Crabbe only tends to shoot when wide open, the games in which he gets 10+ shots up are ones in which the opposing defenses aren't very good and/or Portland is having a great offensive night. Of course, someone could counter-argue that Crabbe shooting so much might be why Portland is having a great offensive night and that's fine. I'd disagree, because I think Crabbe is much more dependent on his team and system than the team and system are on him, but that's opinion and that, in fact, shows why these things are incredibly complicated and hard to tease out from such top-line factoids as "the Blazers won 67% of games in which Crabbe took 10 or more shots." Things are interrelated and it's not clear which direction causation runs, what the independent variables are, etc.
