Allen Crabbe to Undergo Foot Surgery

PER is a stat that overavlues players who take more shots. Reddick shoots more, has a 20% usage rate to crabbes 15% so of course his points will be higher then Crabbes but doing so more efficiently he does not. you can't just point to points and assists while ignoring usages rating and shooting %'s.He does not shoot better from 2 and he shoots .004 better on 3's for his career. If you want to just look at last years stats then Crabbe is shooting way better then reddick on 2's and 3'.
My whole argument is that Crabbe is not a garbage player but a role player who would put up much better stats starting for a team and that I don't think he has negative value. Of course none of us actually know his value but what we do know is that we got calls about Crabbe at the deadline and with how void the league is at the SG position and Crabbes elite 3p shooting make his contract moveable in my opinion. A big problem is when comparing Crabbes contract to peoples before the cap jumped, then it just seems horrible instead of the trend of where contracts are going, everyone signed before 2016 is a bargain until there contracts are up, everyone signed after is the norm. If you look at Crabbes salary by what he would be making in 2015 by % of the cap he takes up it would have been 13.3 which doesn't seem as horrible as the 19m he is due to make this year.
There is no question Crabbe is overpaid for what he does for our team but if another team looks at Crabbe and sees a starter for a position they need. The Nets,Knicks, 76ers, Pacers, Hawks, Pelicans, Jazz, Lakers, Kings are teams I can think of off the top of my head that all have problems at that SG position.

 

When I say Redick scores more and is more efficient I am looking at TS%. In 2016-17, they were virtually the same. In 2015-16, Redick was at .632 and Crabbe was at .572. For their careers, Redick is at .597 and Crabbe is at .578. So yes, Redick scores more and does so more efficiently than Crabbe.

And, even if Crabbe was as efficient as Redick, I'll still take the guy who puts up an additional 6+ points per 100 possessions. Why? Because Redick isn't afraid to shoot when he's guarded. The reason Crabbe's USG% is so low is because he will ONLY shoot when he's wide open (also USG% includes assists, so another reason Redick's USG% is higher).

Why on god's green earth do you assume Crabbe would put up much better stats as a starter? He'd be playing against better competition and opposing defenses would be more designed to stop him. Plus, he would need to be able to create more shots for himself and others, which he simply does not have the ability to do. He's not even a top 6th man. What makes you think he'd be a better starter?

BNM

 

I admit your scenario is reasonable, however, do not come to the same conclusion as you.

Using your trade ideas, the Blazers will be deep into the luxury tax for the 18/19 season. The 19/20 season you mention will be a repeater LT year.

 

Looking at all these stats; his offensive game seems to be best when he is SG, presumably when there is only one other guard out there with him. However his defense is good when he is a SF, presumably when two other guards are out there with him. So that is kind of a quandary. I wonder how they classify him when he and either McCollum or Lillard are out there with Turner? Who is the SF?

 

That's the first thing I thought of when I saws this news. "Crap, now we cant trade him on draft day".

 

Denny's earlier post said:

Personally, I still think the key to getting under the $122M LT threshold is moving Crabbe this summer in an unbalanced trade. Hopefully, Brooklyn still wants him enough to take his contract. If worse came to worst, there's also the stretch provision that could be used to waive him and spread his cap hit out over seven years at something like $8M per year. That would be a bitter pill to swallow, and probably grounds for a firing your GM, but it would get the Blazers under the threshold in combination with dumping Ezeli.

 

Once Crabbe gets his foot healed properly, he's going to be defensive juggernaut, and better off the dribble.

Right? Right?

Left?

 

Adding Nurks salary and play ONLY ups the expense but not the level of play?

Small sample size, but when Nurk was here and playing we were far better than mediocre.....

 

great post.

This seems to be ignored by some. If you want to compare Crabbe to someone, compare his to other FAs from last year. Or, compare his to KCP who will likely get the same or more $$$ than Crabbe.

 

I think you need to add about $7 million to your numbers.

I doubt if the Blazers release Connaughton. I think the coaching staff and his teammates like the way he fits in with the team and the offensive schemes. When he was pressed into duty, he seemed to fit in just fine. At ~$1.5 million, I think they are grooming him as a potential cheap Crabbe replacement. As long as he can knock down the wide open catch and shoot 3, (which he has shown he can do in a limited sample size), I think he's actually better than Crabbe. He's a better rebounder and better passer. He's less one-dimensional than Crabbe. So far, through two seasons, his career trajectory mimics Crabbe's very closely. It was during Crabbe's third season that he started to get significant minutes. If we can move Crabbe, this could be that season for Connaughton.

Also, we will have a little over $5 million in cap holds/guaranteed contracts for our three draft picks (if we don't trade them).

Rosters are expanding to 17 next season. We will need cheap players to fill out those roster spots. You don't have to have 17 players on your roster, but the point is to allow the team more flexibility in using the G League for development of their young players. You won't need to cut those guys to clear roster spots like you did in the past.

You also assume we can dump both Leonard and Davis on other teams without taking back any salary. I'm not sure that is realistic.

BNM

 

That's the most disappointing thing about this entire thread. Crabbe has so many areas of his game he needs to improve, losing out on part, or most, of a summer of development work is a big set back. I'd love nothing more to see Crabbe show improvement in his ball handling and ability to create an occasional shot for himself. Basically, to become something other than a one-dimensional catch and shoot player that is totally reliant on his teammates to create shots for him.

Take a page out of Wes Mattthews' off season routine and come back every fall with one new offensive skill. For someone who is a 3-point specialist, a one dribble step back jumper would be a nice addition.

Last summer he got paid and, disappointingly, did not use the summer to add any new skills to his very limited game.

Any improvement Crabbe makes helps the team. Either he becomes a better player that helps the team win more, or he increases his trade value, making it easier to move him.

So, back to the original subject, I wish Crabbe a most speedy and complete recovery from his surgery. Hope to see him in the gym working on his game ASAP.

BNM

 

There's much worse cap hits than a 25 year old 7 footer who can hit 3s.