Am I missing something?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Luther, Oct 24, 2009.

  1. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    First of all, comparing the Ortg and win share is fallacious because both figures are dependent on team performance, and the team as a whole was significantly better in '09 than in '08. Now, if you want to claim that the improvement in performance is a function of Rudy's presence and Martell's absence, then that's fine, but I certainly don't have to agree with you.

    Secondly, using the percentage difference in reb% and ast% to discount Martell's rebounding but laud Rudy's passing ignores the base size of each stat. Look at the per 36 figures--Martell had 1.3 more rebounds, Rudy had 1.4 more assists. Are you going to tell me that those aren't comparable differentials?

    Again, I acknowledged the difference in PER--primarily attributable to the TS%--and I identified the primary reason for it. Rudy shot more 3s (thereby getting more pps), and hit a higher FT%. Do you see anything else that would contribute to a significant difference in PER? Does that mean that Martell would be "above average" if he shot eight 3s per 36min instead of 5.4?
     
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  2. Luther

    Luther Member

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    Well put. Although I think Martell is still too young to judge, right now he is a very average small forward indeed. He just needs to play solid defense, rebound and hit open shots. If he does those things we have a more athletic Battier. If Rudy would just play defense I would be on the bandwagon...but he does not.
     
  3. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    Why can't we keep both? One plays the 2 and the other the 3.
     
  4. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Of course I am going to tell you that. The assists difference is pretty much 3 points difference - where the rebounds are not - the same rebound could have been collected by another team-mate. Rebounding is often a product of role - if Rudy's role is to leak out on offense for a fast break - he is less likely to get a rebound. Also - if he is guarding a guard, where Martell is mostly matched against a forward - he is more likely to be away from the basket.

    Assists are more valuable than pure rebounds in the grand scheme of things, imho.
    Again, the rebounding rate tells you that the difference between their rebounds is not that big.

    IMHO - it's the assists and TS% - and the reason Rudy shot more 3s is because he got free for one a lot more often than Martel. Rudy moves a lot better without the ball than just about any player on our roster - and this is one of the reasons he gets to shoot these better percentage and higher frequency 3s.

    The issue is not "Martel did not get to shoot that many 3s" imho - it's Rudy has a much better BBIQ and situation awareness to make himself available for these extra 3s.

    See http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html for details of how PER is calculated - you can see that generally speaking - assists are calculated with a larger constant than rebounds, which makes sense given my analysis above.
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2009
  5. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    I think that this is a two way street. Sergio Rodriguez played on the same team that Rudy played on last year - and his ORTG or Win-Share is nowhere near as good as Rudy's...
     
  6. Luther

    Luther Member

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    I'm not saying get rid of either...I'd like both to progress and be apart of this team for the long term...I was just talking about the biased there seems to be among fans...Rudy can get away with anything while a lot of people have written Martell off as a 22 year old.
     
  7. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    You know how quickly fans can turn on a player in a good or bad way. People probably think that Martell has had 4 years to prove himself and Rudy is still so new. I think people forget how young Martell and Travis still are. I have always liked Martell, but Rudy is gonna be a very special player and his future is brighter.
     
  8. Luther

    Luther Member

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    Will there ever be a day where everyone who posts here will be content with the entire roster? We have it so good compared to every other team in the NBA. We're here arguing about a 22 and a 24 year old haha. Either player is close to their prime....hopefully. Btw, I'm not disagreeing with you but when do you think Rudy is going to "break out"? He's 24 and has been playing professionally for a while. Martell is only 22.
     
  9. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    Probably not, because no entire roster is perfect. There are always places to hope for improvement.

    I know! What crazy, angry poster started this thread? Why does he want to argue about such a great roster? ;)

    :cheers:
     
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  10. Luther

    Luther Member

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    Hahaha damn it.
     
  11. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    Rudy can finish just fine when he's not mugged from behind, plus he can hit his FTs when he's fouled. I don't know why you'd bring up D or rebounding as if Martell had a case to argue. Martell tries on D, I'll give him that, but the results have been pretty poor... lots of and 1s at the rim. The rebounding difference between the two isn't worth arguing about. Both PFs handle the ball better then him, probably Pendercrutches too.

    But any way you want to slice up and compare their shooting stats, Rudy's come out on top... and thats the role that both play. More Rudy probably means more Brandon at SF... where statistically he was even deadlier then at SG last year... maybe playing with a threat like Rudy had something to do with that?

    so the answer to your OP? is yes, but heres to Martell finally having things click for him :cheers:

    STOMP
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2009
  12. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    To compare Rudy to Webster or Bayless, here is the only statistic you need. Rudy is TINY. He weighs 185. Bayless weighs 200 and Webster is--well, it says 235. I don't believe it. Anyway, Webster can play 2 positions and Rudy can only play one at his weight. (Is it PG? because he's just about too TINY to be a SG.)

    Weight affects his ability to drive through traffic and to play tough defense. His nickname should be TINY.

    (I'm not saying Webster or Bayless are better, because they're worse. I'm just saying that Rudy isn't the great player so many think he is.)
     
  13. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    If you can ball, you can ball! No matter what size you are! KG and A.I. have been killin people on the court in spite of the fact that they look like they came straight from Somalia! Rudy is gonna be just fine! The only thing he has to worry about is if the Lakers sign Oliver Miller to a 10-Day and he gets hungry for Spanish food!
     
  14. Luther

    Luther Member

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    What I'm saying is that Martell has the ability to be a good defender and is young enough to continue to improve in that area. Rudy is the worst on ball defender on the team hands down. There is absolutely no arguing that. Gambling on steals and doing that euro reach around BS is not good defense. He's not athletic enough to block any shots or even contest jumpers. I'm not saying he's a bad player by any means..The guy can flat out score when his shot is falling. But when it isn't he could possibly be the least productive player in the rotation...Is that incorrect?
     
  15. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

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    Good god. Is this what we are up against this year? Before it was how much better Webster is or might be than Travis - and now Rudy?

    Should we start the countdown to "how much better Webster is or will be" than Roy?
     
  16. Minstrel

    Minstrel Top Of The Pops Global Moderator

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    He just needs to miss another season, to allow his legend to build a little more.
     
  17. Luther

    Luther Member

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    I'm not saying Webster is better than anyone. I'm pointing out the fact that Rudy gets a pass for playing terrible in the playoffs and never playing defense while Martell is always being ridiculed for anything he does wrong. Rudy can go 0-10 and nobody says anything and yet when Martell does it he is the worst player on the team...Am I off with this statement?
     
  18. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    are you seriously asking? Rudy hasn't ever gone 0-10 that I can recall but he did shoot higher overall percentages from the field, line and deep in his first NBA season then MW ever has. I also don't think I've read anyone calling Martell the worst player on the team. I'm hardly his biggest booster, but if everyone is healthy this year I see him somewhere between 8-11 in the rotation.

    STOMP
     
  19. Masbee

    Masbee -- Rookie of the Year

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    I think another reason contributing to Rudy's near "untouchable" status was that he performed better early in the season and faded late. At one point during the heart of the season I recall his PER being 18 something. That is terrific for a rookie. That is what Roy did and better than LaMarcus as rookies.

    That early performance cemented his status which has not been entirely eroded by his 2nd half fade. He is being given a bit of a pass on that due to the assumption of him hitting the rookie wall.

    This season will tell the tale as to that theory. It seems the coaching staff agreed that Rudy was important and needed to be given a bigger role. Unfortunately his body is again letting him and the team down.
     
  20. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    We made a huge mistake signing Roy to that max deal. Very soon, Rudy and Webster will both surpass him! :ghoti:
     

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