Andre Miller

Miller is currently the caliber of player who could certainly be a starter on a championship-caliber team. Not one of the main driving forces, but certainly a starter for that level of team.

I'd also say Aldridge is that level...we hope that Aldridge will reach the level of the sort of player who can be a prime reason for championship contention.

 

I disagree with Roy being the only player who could be on a contending roster. Most of the players have to be role players. The problem is, I don't view many of our role players as up to snuff. Rudy could be. Bayless could be. Lots of upside there. Howard could be a nice role player, and Aldridge could be a good #3 scorer.

My point being, that all that means is that the GM has work to do down the road. The other point being, is that the team could be much stronger by end of season if they would play Rudy and Bayless with Roy to jel before end of season, instead of continuing to burn more time on Blake and Miller. Find out what we have, make decisions and move forward. Quit burning my time on Blake and Miller. I know they aren't going to take us anywhere. Develope the guards that matter, and find out if they can play.

 

That's how I view Andre as well, but I just wish they would fully commit to Bayless if they aren't trading him. He should be playing 100% of the backup PG minutes from now on.

Miller was a solid signing. He flat out keeps us in games with his ability to get to the FT line when nothing is falling for the rest of the team. If Bayless is ready to start next season, the expiring contracts from both Miller and Joel could net us a nice piece to contend for a championship.

 

With our current active roster, Bayless should be getting plenty of minutes backing up both guard spots, as well as playing in a 3-guard line-up with both Miller and Roy.

I also view Bayless as a long term piece of this team. I'm not 100% sold on him being THE starting PG, but even if he's just an instant offense guy (like Manu) off the bench that can play either guard position, I'm OK with that. In an eventual 3-guard rotation of Roy, ????? and Bayless, he should be able to get 30MPG whether he starts or comes off the bench.

BNM

 

You just changed your own criteria. In your original post you said "ask yourself if you see that player being a starter on a championship caliber team". Unless you actually think Juwan Howard will be a starter on a championship caliber team. And, as long as Brandon Roy is here, I don't see Rudy being a full time starter, either.

With all the injuries, Bayless should get plenty of minutes backing up both guard spots and playing in the 3-guard line-ups. If you throw him in as the starting PG now, you risk missing the play-offs. I'd rather keep starting Miller, play Bayless 25 - 30 MPG off the bench, and make the play-offs. In order for this team to grow they need more play-off experience. Missing the play-offs would be a huge step backwards for the whole team - including Bayless.

If it becomes obvious at some point we aren't making the play-offs, then I'd be fine with starting Bayless, but until we reach that point, I think we should start the players that give us the best chance to make the play-offs this season, to gain valuable play-off experience for all of our young players, and right now I think that's Andre Miller at PG.

BNM

 

Agreed, but he's not likely to be a starter when THIS team is contending for a title.

Still, in order for this team to take the next step we need to get our young guys valuable post season experience, and I think Andre Miller can help get us to the play-offs THIS year, and that alone justifies having him on the roster and starting THIS season.

BNM

 

BTW, I also picture Greg Oden as a starter on this team when they are contending for a championship. I didn't mention him previously, because I was only discussing players on the active roster who should be getting PT right now. I also picture Batum as a starter when this team is contending for a championship. I left him off for the same reason.

BNM

 

What's Millers win percentage as a starter prior to these last five games compared to these last five games?

 

It's a TEAM stat. Of course Miller's is low. Earlier in the season he rarely got to play with Oden, only played with Roy when 40% of our starters were forced to play out of position and now that he's starting and playing big minutes, it's with Juwan Howard at center and a much tougher schedule.

BNM

 

I guess my point is you were wondering how bad Blake must have been to drop so dramatically in win percentage. I'm guessing Miller has dropped dramtically in win percentage when starting . . . but I don't think it is a question of how bad you must be playing when you drop in win percentage . . . there are other circumstances that need to be considered.

 

Well it doesn't sound like you like the stat that much, which is my answer. Just like asking how does Miller go from 9-3 winning percentage (or whatever it is) to 44% in the span of 5 games if he is playing well enough that he should be starting.

I just don't think it is a fair question for either of them.

But whatever, we are in agreement taht Miller should be starting (until he is traded )

 

Don't get sucked into misusing win% as an individual stat. There are ten variables involved - and nine of them AREN'T the player in question.

Brandon Roy has been playing like a legitimate MVP candidate lately, easily his best ball of the season, and the team is winning games they probably shouldn't be winning. Yet, his win% has dropped to a season low 52.6%. Why? Simple - he's playing with a severely depleted roster AND he's been playing against the toughest competition the team has faced all year. That's the nine other variables I was referring to - his four teammates and five opponents.

BNM

 

I agree. There have been several threads posting Miller's record as a starter talking about his winning percentage as a starter and that is why he should be starting. I always thought what you just said above.

 

Excuses, excuses...

Andre is getting his stats as he always does and always has, and his team gets mediocre results as his teams always do.

2-3 is a lottery %.

 

Somebody can (and no doubt will) correct me if I'm wrong, but the win% stat (not win shares at basketball reference) refers to the raw number of "won" playing shifts. For instance if you are involved in three substitutions/shifts and in the first series you outscore your opponent by 3 points, in the second you are outscored by 10 and then in the third you "win" by 5, you'd have a net +/- of -2 and a win percentage of 66%.

Admittedly my understanding could be flawed, since I was only able to glean this from a conversation I read at APBR metrics, but in any case I'm not sure how much I would weight this particular data point given all of the other advanced metrics out there that seem to suggest Miller is outplaying Steve and by a pretty wide margin. But maybe more importantly, lately it seems like Brandon has been on one of the best runs of his career while paired up with Miller in the backcourt and though correlation isn't causation it's encouraging.

 

yet you're questioning Aldridge who is only 24 and has shown a whole lot more game on both ends. These last two weeks LA has been hobbled/playing through injuries while Martell has produced stats well above his career averages. I wouldn't guess that either situation is likely to continue.

STOMP

 

I'm pretty sure your understanding of it is correct. It's basically +/- without the magnitude. Just up or down, with no recording of "by how much." +/- is already very flawed over small (i.e. less than a few seasons) sample size...removing even more information from it strikes me as reducing it to almost pure noise.