im the farthest thing from a homer but if the raps dont get one of the top six seeds- i will call mr. j "my daddy"
With the Raptor's current talent level, their peak is probably closer to 47, 48 wins. If they only manage to be at .500, then there's a huge problem. The Pacers played out of their minds last year, beating some teams they should not have. They're losing two key players in Daniels and Jack, and will have to incorporate Dunleavy when he gets back which could take a good half a dozen games. Also, can Troy Murphy recreate last season's success? Lastly, most of the Pacers are pretty injury prone. Ford, Dunleavy, Murphy and Granger have all been known to miss games, and unless the team is really lucky, they most likely will have to deal with injuries again. As for Chicago, Salmons is a great player, but he's not the scoring threat Gordon was. Gordon is money in the 4th, and a dead eye 3pt shooter. Salmons is a decent replacement, but without Gordon, the team just isn't the same. Rose will improve, but to what extent? I think he's still a year or two away from being able to change the Bulls from decent to good. His improvement alone probably can't push the Bulls ahead of the Raptors. Again, like I said before, the Raptors have the talent to be in the 47, 48 win range, (which I don't see Chicago or Indiana reaching) and if they can't do it, then it'd be very surprising.
How is the issue addressed when the Raptors just lost their two best defenders and their second best rebounder? With the exception of Jack, the players you named are 8th-11th men that get most of their playing time against second unit competition. They aren't really worth mentioning as significant additions. And while Jack is a solid role player and a good defender at that, I doubt he'll be able to reciprocate Anthony Parker’s presence on the defensive end. At SG Jack might be more of a liability, actually. So the defense and rebounding is barely addressed. Antoine Wright is actually pretty horrible if he's anything like he was in New Jersey (I'll admit I haven't seen too much of him in Dallas). What I mean that it is pretty much guaranteed not to work against Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando for sure. The other teams it could work but the likelihood of it is still up in the air. Atlanta and Chicago have pretty good front court defenders who are also athletic enough to defend the mismatches pretty well. You also have to consider that while Toronto has mismatches on offense, their opponents do when Toronto is on defense.
Jack outperformed TJ Ford last year and is a good compliment to Jose, in terms of playing style. Antoine Wright started for Dallas last season and Rick Carlisle has openly praised his defensive ability and toughness. He's not the player the Nets hoped for when drafting him, but he's a definite contributor. DeMar DeRozan is a rookie, so he's more of a wildcard than the rest of them. But the dude's arguably one of the more physically talented rookies and has shown great poise and work ethic so far. Evans is one of the best pure rebounders this franchise has seen, and will be a nice complement next to Bosh/Bargnani. Rasho is similar, except that his main contribution will be to defend the bigger, bulkier centers. My point is our ability to mix-and-match, and put out solid defensive lineups will help mitigate the lack of D in our starting lineup. It sure as hell will be more effective than overplaying an aging Anthony Parker (what we did last year). Actually, those two teams have struggled to defend our frontcourt. Bargnani has played some of his best ball against Chicago (last season: 27 & 7, 59.5 FG%, 50% 3PT%) and Bosh usually plays quite well against Atlanta (last season: 24.5 & 10.5, on 57% shooting). Most of those teams aren't particularly strong defensively, and the ones that are, struggle against our best players. I feel like the offensive mismatches we can create will be far more significant than the ones they can.
This roster has the potential to play a couple styles and that should really help out the raps. Our starting 5 is obviously an offensive powerhouse so they should (hopefully) do well starting the first and 3rd quarters in most games. But with the second unit mixed in with some of our starters we could play a decent half court game and be okay defensively.
No he didn't. In spite of averaging fewer MPG (30.5 vs. 33.1), Ford average more PPG, APG, RPG and SPG than Jack. Which explains why Ford had a much better PER (16.6) than Jack (13.1). Jack is a good 3rd guard that can back-up both guard spots, but saying he outperformed TJ Ford last season is completely inaccurate. And, if Jack is starter on your team, at either guard spot, you're in trouble. He's flat out horrible. He had a PER of 8.6 last season and his career PER is 7.7. That's pathetic. His DRTg of 111 is not very impressive. In fact, it's below average. The only reason he started 53 games for Dallas last season was injuries. Keep in mind Devean George also started 17 games for them and Gerald Green started 12 times. That shows you how desperate Dallas was for starting wings last season. Yes, Evans is a good rebounder (although his TRB% has been down two years in a row), but when he is in the game you are playing 4 on 5 on offense. And that is, in a nutshell, the problem I see with the Raptors. You have very few players who are even average at both ends of the court. You have to choose what you want. Your starters are VERY weak defensively and on the boards. You have players on the bench who are better rebounders and, in theory, better defenders, but they are also some of the worst offensive players in the league. Sure you can mix and match, but when you bring in players like Evans and Wright to improve your rebounding and defense, you given up the one advantage you have - a great offensive team. Putting one, or more, of those players on the court might take you from a very weak rebounding, very poor defending team to one that is, at best, slightly below average in those areas. But at the same time, you turn a team that is far above average offensively into one that is suddenly very average on offense. The problem is, even with all the off season acquisitions Colangelo has made, I just don't see any possible line-up that is above average at both ends of the court and on the boards. BNM
How did Jack outplay Ford when Ford, in less minutes, is superior in virtually every single statistical category including PER, Roland Rating, +/-, etc? The Pacers’ best 5-man unit last season includes Ford and excludes Jack. Even if Jack is a good compliment to Calderon, he will still be sacrificing a lot of size guarding shooting guards. So long as they are playing together in the backcourt, one of them will probably be a liability on defense to the opposing SG. Wright has always been an above average defender, but he is not the defender that Anthony Parker was and he is only a shooter for the most part (and not a very good one at that). If defense was a problem for the Raptors last year and they lost their two best defenders and are replacing them with a few 15-20 minute bench players who aren’t as good defensively, how did they gain on defense? There will be many nights when the Raptors' shots aren't falling and they will need to commit to defense or more than 20 minutes to have a chance of winning. I don't see them being able to do that. Conversely, Bosh averaged 23.5 points but on a modest 40.5% against Chicago and Bargnani averages 12.8 on 42.9% shooting against Atlanta. I guess it’s a match up thing then?
I've been saying the same thing ever since the Hedo/Marion (plus assorted flotsam and jetsam) trade. Hedo is a good offensive player, but you guys don't really need more offense. It seems like every move Colangelo has made this season has been a desperate attempt to recreate the Phoenix Suns team of 4 - 5 years ago, and has sacrificed defense and rebounding in favor of even more offense. The problem is, the roster he's assembled simply isn't as talented as those Suns teams were. The Raptors three biggest problems last season were: defense, rebounding and a pathetic bench. You gave up your best defender and 2nd best rebounder. If anything, you will be even worse in both those areas. You have improved your offense and Colangelo has done a great job filling out your bench. That's enough to get you to 40 - 45 wins and back into the play-offs. But, it doesn't make you a contender, or even a serious threat to get past the 1st round. Defense and rebounding wins games - especially in the post season. The Raptors roster, as currently assembled, will score enough to win considerably more regular season games than last year, but is doomed to fail in the post season. BNM
