Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

UncleCliffy'sDaddy · Oct 15, 2015

Denny Crane said: ↑

Santer et al:

http://www.pnas.org/content/110/1/26.abstract

We perform a multimodel detection and attribution study with climate model simulation output and satellite-based measurements of tropospheric and stratospheric temperature change. We use simulation output from 20 climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This multimodel archive provides estimates of the signal pattern in response to combined anthropogenic and natural external forcing (the fingerprint) and the noise of internally generated variability.

...

Despite such agreement in the large-scale features of model and observed geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change, most models do not replicate the size of the observed changes. On average, the models analyzed underestimate the observed cooling of the lower stratosphere and overestimate the warming of the troposphere.

(The models have been horribly inaccurate)

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/

95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong
February 7th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

I’m seeing a lot of wrangling over the recent (15+ year) pause in global average warming…when did it start, is it a full pause, shouldn’t we be taking the longer view, etc.

These are all interesting exercises, but they miss the most important point: the climate models that governments base policy decisions on have failed miserably.

I’ve updated our comparison of 90 climate models versus observations for global average surface temperatures through 2013, and we still see that >95% of the models have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH):

Whether humans are the cause of 100% of the observed warming or not, the conclusion is that global warming isn’t as bad as was predicted. That should have major policy implications…assuming policy is still informed by facts more than emotions and political aspirations.

And if humans are the cause of only, say, 50% of the warming (e.g. our published paper), then there is even less reason to force expensive and prosperity-destroying energy policies down our throats.
Click to expand...

I think what Maris was trying to say(?) is that when you break up a large object into smaller pieces, you create more surface area. Simple physics. That very much could be a possible explanation for the increase. All the data that is being provided doesn't provide a definitive answer at this time. Same with climate change. The information is inconclusive for the most part. Or that's my take, since scientists, politicians and science geeks can't seem to agree on whether climate change/global warming even exists. Depends on your politics I guess. So Maris's opinion is as good as any right now...

Denny Crane · Oct 15, 2015

UncleCliffy'sDaddy said: ↑

I think what Maris was trying to say(?) is that when you break up a large object into smaller pieces, you create more surface area. Simple physics. That very much could be a possible explanation for the increase. All the data that is being provided doesn't provide a definitive answer at this time. Same with climate change. The information is inconclusive for the most part. Or that's my take, since scientists, politicians and science geeks can't seem to agree on whether climate change/global warming even exists. Depends on your politics I guess. So Maris's opinion is as good as any right now...
Click to expand...

The artcic ice thickness increase was addressed.

Log in or Sign up

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

UncleCliffy'sDaddy We're all Bozos on this bus.

Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

Share This Page

Log in or Sign up

Antarctic sea ice hit 35-year record high Saturday

Moderators

UncleCliffy'sDaddy We're all Bozos on this bus.

Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

Share This Page

Useful Searches