So let's use the Denny, emotional 12 month forecast in sales he used for Amazon.... http://www.marketgrader.com/MGMainWeb/mgfree/stockgrader/sg_classic.jsp?symbol=AAPL That kicked the living shit out of amazon... NEXT.... The profitability alone trumps google's profit; which is considered one of the strongest companies in tech. Now... There is not a single company like apple in Tech right now. They aren't the low margin type company. They are selling a lifestyle. A status quo. This is something the other giants aren't even close to. They are one of the best marketing agencies I know of. Absolutely efficient. and finally... They have enough cash to acquire many companies to better Apple's selling platform. Something other companies can't even touch. That advantage alone can trump their competition if they really want to. BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!!!!!!!
I do have a legit question: why is Amazon rewarded in the stock market for running essentially a utility with tons of revenues but no profits? Their P/E ratio is nuts (3,000+%). EDIT: as i wrote this, I chuckled at how P/E is the PER of the stock market, probably misued by just about everyone who also misuses advanced stats on Basketball Reference.
Oh give me a break Denny. Since I blew your weak argument of Amazon out of the water, you toss this "Sector" argument?! Okay compare Apple to Dell, Microsoft, HP, IBM, etc. It's not even close. Fact is, Apple is one of the most efficient and profitable tech companies on the public market. The sooner you understand this the better your arguments on value can be made.
If amazon had a down quarter, their company would be in serious trouble. Basically with Apple's available cash, they could not sell a single product for a solid 3 years and still stay in business. What other company can say this? LOL about the P/E as being the "PER" argument! Also, check this out! http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=amzn Amazon's balance sheet is fucking scary. Their sales are around 8 bil; yet their liabilities for doing business is 5 bil. Two down quarters could sink their ship.
There's your imaginary price, and there's the real thing. If you believe in your lack of knowledge about stocks, go all in.
Amazon is a growth company. They're like a railroad building its tracks. During that period, lots of expenses. But when the lines are all built, they reap the rewards. The market is factoring in the growth. Look at their sales, which have 4x in the past 5 years.
Laugh at the PER comparison. It makes you look like you don't have a clue. The big difference is that PER is meant to compare any two players, any season, etc. While PE ratio is truly valid when comparing companies in the same industry. BlazerCaravan got it right.
LMAO!!!!! Yes go with the drop after you just said that the stock market is emotionally driven. I am seriously thinking about going all in. Would you like a wager on the stock price? I will bet $1,000 that Apple will get to $500 after the next quarter.
Denny, you are the one that doesn't have a clue. You tossed "Book Value"; then argued that Amazon is growing, etc. Then I replied that if Apple shared the same "book value to actual sell price" like Google; it's a $485 share; which you blatantly ignored. Then you tried saying amazon is growing, unlike Apple; which I immediately showed apple is growing 8 times faster than amazon without any debt. Seems you are the one lacking the knowledge in this matter. BTW.. The "PER" comparison is actually you using the "Book Value"
The $700 price in Sept/Oct 2012 was emotionally driven, no? Looks like the bloom's off that rose. The stock has had upticks all the way down. If you think you can time one of those, you're the world's greatest stock picker. Go for it. I see a ~$400 price and see way more room to go down than up. But I'm the conservative type investor that doesn't like to speculate on a stock with a chart looking so down as Apple's.
The $700 price was high. I agree. I never justified that price. I said $500 and I stand by that. Do you want to wager or not?
No. Book value translates across any sort of company. An oil company's book value is what you have after adding the sale of all the oil wells and land and other assets to the company's bank account (cash) and paying off the debt. Similarly for Apple, its book value is what you have after selling its assets, plus its cash, and after paying off the debt. I didn't say Apple isn't growing. You make stuff up a lot. I'm not talking up Amazon. Its stock is due for a nice tumble, too. However, they are players in tablets (kindle), cloud computing (AWS), and streaming video (Prime instant video) - all of these are hot growth sectors.
Never said you "said apple isn't growing", but what you did say is amazon is growing, which justifies their price. But you ignored apple's 8 times growth of amazon and don't account for that being a factor for apple's price.
You certainly did suggest I said Apple isn't growing. http://beta.fool.com/dalalsid/2013/02/01/rethinking-apple-and-amazon-all-about-the-cash/23073/ Discusses why they see Amazon stock going up while Apple's goes down.
Hmmm... The suggestion that apple is losing marketshare but increasing profits is a bit of an anomaly no? The issue with Apple and it's excess of cash is they want to make sure their investments are for good. Maybe the opportunity to buy out a company is in their foreseeable future. They also had the lawsuits with Samsung that most companies want to keep cash on hand, just in case the trial goes south. Regardless, Apple is still the most efficient and profitable company in the tech industry. After the dust settles, it's going to be the juggernaut it once was again. Still waiting on your wager agreement. You sound so sure that Apple will drop and I'm sure apple goes to $500. Will you take the bet? I mean you still win if apple doesn't reach $500 by next quarter.
Sounds to me like you think buying stocks is a wager of sorts. Well it is. Legalized gambling for suckers like you and me. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuetrap.asp Definition of 'Value Trap' A stock that appears to be cheap because the stock has been trading at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for an extended time period. Stock traps attract investors who are looking for a bargain because these stocks are inexpensive. The trap springs when investors buy into the company at low prices and the stock never improves. Trading that occurs at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for long periods of time might indicate that the company or the entire sector is in trouble, and that stock prices may not move higher. Investopedia explains 'Value Trap' Companies, and even sectors, can be doomed, because of situations such as the inability to survive competition, the inability to generate substantial and consistent profits, the lack of new products or earnings growth, or ineffective management. Often, a value trap appears to be such a good deal that investors become confused when the stock fails to perform. As with any investment decision, thorough research and evaluation is recommended before investing in any company that appears cheap when reviewing its relevant performance metrics.
It really is gambling because in a normal world of business, this type of evaluation is seriously off. A poor man's evaluation is 5x gross sales; which would put apple in a $1,200 per share price range. When I look at apple, I am looking at what they have to offer. They are one of the best marketing gurus in tech. Their storefront is being copied by Best Buy. They are a revenue making machine. And in all seriousness, what have they invented? Nothing really. I take the joke in the 80's regarding the Japanese. They didn't invent the car, they just found a way to make better and more efficient. I'm thinking the next innovation should be a iDok for a car. Bascially giving the car owner all the benefits of SIRI and the ease of use of the OS for the driver. Google is trying to break into this market. If apple used their marketing power, they would end Google's parade.
The Newton, iPhone, iPad, Macintosh, etc., were all quite innovative. I'd call it innovative that Apple got real Unix on peoples' desktops and on their laptops. The iPhone and iPad are real inventions that are distinct from the alternatives of the time. The only rumors I'm seeing about any new apple product is the iWatch. A bit of hype and suggestion that Apple fans will buy it in decent numbers. Not long on details of what it actually is.
