Are we still tanking?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SlyPokerDog, Jun 27, 2024.

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What should be the Blazers goal for next season?

  1. Suck so bad we Hawk Tuah!

    38 vote(s)
    74.5%
  2. Play-in or Bust!

    10 vote(s)
    19.6%
  3. Championship baby!

    3 vote(s)
    5.9%
  1. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    That's like saying you never know the Blazers might win the title next season, anything can happen.

    There is no way Flagg is staying in college, doesn't make any sense and the financial risk alone from injury/etc would be irresponsible for him and his family.
     
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  2. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    14.5% out of 14 teams the best we could do.
     
  3. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    Really the aim needs to be to secure a bottom 5 record. That gives us 42-52% chance of top4 and 11-14% chance of #1.

    It might be too hard to guarantee the worst record and that could have a negative impact on Scoot/Sharpe development. So I'm all for trying to get a high draft pick in a way that still has the focus of the season on their development as well as our other youth. But middling vets like Grant/Thybulle/Ayton/Ant/Timelord absolutely should not be prioritized for this season at all!

    If we go on a run of wins we fall to #9 slot with a 4% or less chance of that top pick which would be a disaster.
     
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  4. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    I agree a significant injury could cost him millions and a top draft position. But what if that same injury occurred this season in college? If it is going to cost him the money you allude to, why would he not consider staying an extra year in college to prove he is healthy?
     
  5. BIG Q

    BIG Q Well-Known Member

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    Portland needs to finish in the bottom three as they all have a 14% chance at number one and a 52.1% chance of top three. Not finishing in the bottom three, when the team actually is unable to compete even as a mid level team would be negligent to the fans. Portland is a small market team. Over the entire life of the franchise they have proven that they can not lure an All NBA fee agent. They can only build through the draft. The goal should be get number one, settle for two. Three, four and five are expected as of today to be guards.
     
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  6. BIG Q

    BIG Q Well-Known Member

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    Because he doesn't have to prove he is healthy. He will go number one, injured, like Embiid did. Hell, the Nets paid KD for an entire season to rehab knowing his achilles may never fully heal. They are all too big of prospects to pass up.
     
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  7. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe but I was responding to a post saying the financial risk alone from injury/etc would be irresponsible for him and his family.

    Interesting that we have seen a few top college football players stay an extra year because they enjoy college life, but not many college basketball players....when the injury factor is much greater in football. (and doesn't have the same guaranteed contracts)
     
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  8. BIG Q

    BIG Q Well-Known Member

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    Injury risk is much more real in the NFL draft over NBA. A torn ACL is a much bigger red flag in the NFL Draft over the NBA. Unless you are a quarterback, the odds of getting huge money is far lower in the NFL. In the NBA, they are playing with Monopoly money. NFL players are truly jealous of the money thrown around by NBA teams for players that might play 10 minutes a night. High school basketball players are reclassifying their graduation year to get into the NBA ASAP.
     
  9. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    If he gets injured this year but can fully recover it's likely he still is a top3 pick and comes out.

    If he isn't a top3 pick them it might be a harder decision he would need to make. That would be if it's an Achilles or major knee damage or something that makes his recovery more unknown to NBA teams.

    It's certainly not impossible he has such an injury but it is extremely unlikely.
     
  10. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    #4 is 12.5% or #5 is 10.5% so really anything in the bottom 5 is fine. Yeah I'd prefer that 14% but I think we should still play Scoot Sharpe the whole year and if they get some wins bumping us to #5 that's fine.
     
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  11. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    Embiid was the 3rd pick.
     
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  12. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    I just don't see that being very possible.
     
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  13. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

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    Maybe trade for some pick swaps?
     
  14. BIG Q

    BIG Q Well-Known Member

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    Even better
     
  15. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    We were third worst last season and Brogdon was our most effective player. Certainly think we can get bottom 3 or bottom 5 if we prioritize youth playing on this roster.
     
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  16. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    2025 pick swaps from a possible lottery team would be crazy valuable. Can't see the Blazers being able to get one of those for any of our vets.

    A 2029-31 swap is something maybe we could get, would help a ton in a few years or help earlier getting more value in trades.
     
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  17. Boomchakalaka2

    Boomchakalaka2 Active Member

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    Time to tank hard. Watching the highlights of Flagg…he’s going to be number 1, 2 or 3. I say we trade Grant, Ant and Timelord (plus picks) to a team that will part with an unprotected 2025 1st:

    Teams owning a 2025 1st (unprotected or 1-5 protected):

    Boston
    Brooklyn
    Charlotte
    Chicago
    Dallas
    Denver
    Detroit
    Golden State
    Houston
    Indiana
    LA Clippers
    Memphis
    Miami
    Milwaukee
    New Orleans
    New York
    OKC
    Orlando
    Philadelphia
    Sacramento
    San Antonio
    Toronto
    Utah
    Washington

    of which, I’ll predict the following to be 2025 Lottery teams:

    Brooklyn
    Charlotte
    Chicago
    Detroit
    Golden State
    LA Clippers
    Memphis
    Toronto
    Utah
    Washington

    to which, I’ll predict the following to be with the worst records:

    Brooklyn
    Charlotte
    Chicago
    Detroit
    Washington
    (Portland will finish outside of the worst three teams)

    My final worst three teams in 2025:

    Brooklyn
    Chicago
    Detroit
    Toronto (right on the edge)

    We need to pry away one of these team’s 2025 1st picks in order to increase our chances at Flagg. I just don’t see Portland finishing with a worse record even tanking hard.

    Send Ant, Grant and Timelord and one of our 2029 1sts to Chicago and take back
    Ball, Levine and Buzelis, get back our own protected 2025 pick previously sent to the Bulls and their 2025 unprotected 1st

    [trade machine approved]

    We obtain a piece of our future puzzle with Buzelis and we increase our odds for being in the top 3 (twice) in 2025.

    Obviously Buzelis stays however we must then flip Levine and Ball. Any takers? Maybe LA Lakers or LA Clippers will give us something of value?
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2024
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  18. BIG Q

    BIG Q Well-Known Member

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    Problem is, giving up too much talent that might make say, Chicago, actually better than they are. If we do the Chicago trade, they have no incentive to tank.
     
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  19. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

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    How many games did players miss due to "injuries" last year? Hard to replicate that.
     
  20. inconceivable

    inconceivable Well-Known Member

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    Asbolutely we are still tanking. That's why we're trading Grant this summer.

    The vision is contention from 2027-2028

    Scoot on year 5
    Sharpe on year 6
    Flagg on year 3
    Avdija on year 8
    Clingan on year 4

    By then

    Scoot should be playing like CP3
    Sharpe should be playing like Kobe
    Flagg should be playing like Pippen
    Avdija should be playing like Luka
    Clingan should be playing like David Robinson
     

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