AROUND THE 2024 NBA PLAYOFFS: 2nd ROUND, MIN vs DEN, OKC vs DAL, BOS vs CLE, IND vs NY

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SlyPokerDog, Apr 29, 2024.

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  1. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Often reporters are trying to push people to give the quote that they want.

    This reporter clearly wanted a quote from Malone about giving up a 20 point lead. It's a legit topic from the game. It's something he should address.

    At the end of the day, most reporters are just doing their job.
     
    Natebishop3, May 21, 2024
    #341
  2. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Then how do you explain why the lower seed wins a higher percentage of home games than road ones?
     
    Tince, May 21, 2024
    #342
  3. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    No shit.
    It was a stupid question and the answer was worse.
     
    kjironman1, May 21, 2024
    #343
  4. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the link. Since it didn't have a flat data set for me to pull all the NBA playoff outcomes, I took a minute to pull the Blazers playoff data since 2000 to see if there was a noticable difference for how they performed at home vs on the road. I wanted to separate if they were the higher seed or not to see if them having a better home record was simply because of the fact they were the better team. Here were the winning percentages:

    Better Seed At Home - 62.5%
    Better Seed On Road - 14.3%
    Worse Seed At Home - 48.3%
    Worst Seed On Road - 26.5%

    At least in Portland's sample, it appears they were over 4 times as likely to win as the better seed at home than they were on the road. As the lower seed, they were just shy of twice as likely to win at home vs on the road.
     
    Tince, May 21, 2024
    #344
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  5. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Why is it stupid to ask about them blowing a 20 point lead?
     
    Natebishop3, May 21, 2024
    #345
  6. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Overall this post-season, home teams are 43-31, 58.1%.
    Overall this post-season, higher seeded teams are 44-30, 59.5%.
    Overall this post-season, higher seeded teams at home are 28-15, 65.1%.

    So yes, the seeding impacts winning percentage, but the location also impacts it. Home-court advantage absolutely is still a thing.

    To be fair, in the second round, home teams went 5-8, including two game-7 losses, so I can see how someone might think home-court doesn't matter anymore. But that's an anomaly, not a trend.
     
    PtldPlatypus, May 21, 2024
    #346
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  7. beast crnjo

    beast crnjo Well-Known Member

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    That's rather close to the aggregate data. They won about 55% of their playoff games at home if you average those. I don't think home court is nothing. But it's some combination of travel, and psychological advantage. I think those two advantages are lessened in the playoffs. And it's diluted by the "more games at home for better teams" aspect comes into play in the playoffs.

    Whatever advantage remains: you play 82 games to get that for "maybe" 1 game. Because there are 2 ways a series can end with both teams getting equal number of games at home and 2 ways in which the top seed can.
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2024
    beast crnjo, May 21, 2024
    #347
  8. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers won about 51% of their home games and 24% of their road games in the playoffs since 2000. Since the 1999-2000 season, they won 60% of their home games and 42% of their road games in the regular season.
     
    Tince, May 21, 2024
    #348
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