Ok I just woke up (yes, its noon lol), read a ton of articles regarding free agency and I'm sober now so hopefully I'll make more sense than last night. Here is what I gather: -Brand probably isn't going anywhere. Sterling loves him and Dunleavy loves him. I've read that hes willing to take a paycut if it means they'll sign Baron. - The Clippers have already declined Livingston's option and if they renounce Maggette's rights that gives them enough to sign Baron outright. This could explain why Baron opted out at all because besides the Clippers the only other teams who can offer him anything are the 76ers (already have Miller) and Grizzlies (ownership debacle means they aren't spending plus they have Conley, Mayo, Critt, Lowry). Its quite possible that they have already made an offer and that if Baron agrees verbally they'll renounce Mags and sign Baron outright then Brand shortly thereafter. - The Warriors have allegedly offered Gil at deal worth 95-100 mil but its not even really competitive because the Wiz are willing and able to offer much much more. Maybe its a PR move? Shows the fans they're trying to spend perhaps. Doesn't make sense form a basketball perspective IMO. So what do we do now? I really have no idea whether Baron is coming back or not. On the one hand we had a 48 win team last year and if we get production from Wright, Beli, and/or Hendrix we could improve upon that. On the other it seemed like if Baron didn't opt out and played the one year we were destined for full-reduild-mode all along- maybe we just start on it early? If thats the case I wouldn't go for Ricky Davis, Maggette, etc. at all. Monta would be my #1 option guy- his post all-star break stats were 22.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.6 apg, 2.6 TOpg, 1.9 spg, 53% FGs (17.6 FGAs per game) in 40.3 minutes and 30 games. Hes ready to be that guy IMO. Re-sign Azu and have Azu/Beli fight it out for starting SG minutes. Jackson will man the 3 and Wright will get a lot of run at the 4/5 starting or backing up Al/Beans. If we make FA signings I would want it to be for young players who aren't going to hog the ball. We'll be a crappy team in all likelihood and we can add another draft pick next year. After that you have some lineup of Monta/Randolph/Wright/09 draft pick/Azu/Beli.
Also have to add that Udrih and Calderon were snatched, Udrih for reportedly 32 million/5 years (a bit over $6 million a year). Calderon wasn't leaked, but my guess is at least what TJ Ford was making. So, that kind of eats up some of the possible PG/backup PG options, certainly there's cheaper ones out there that are quite viable. Basically in general all these fantastic signing scenarios are just that, fantastic, because teams are smart and want to lock up their own talent first, because its a huge gamble to do otherwise. The biggest concern for me is defense, it's hard to trust anyone other than SJax. Beans is good help defense, but needs help 1-on-1. Harrington is alright in the post, but basically not quick enough to handle certain matchups. I'm certain Wright's improving, but he's still basically a rookie out there and his lack of bulk can hurt him in certain matchups in the post. A backcourt of Monta and Azu/Belinelli quite frankly scares me. I'd say to try to get a stopper on the wing (Quinton Ross or trade for Damien Wilkins or why I kind of suggested Childress as an option), but Nelly wouldn't really play a guy who's a total offensive liability like Ross, if he's even interested in coming here. Basically there's 4 teams that can do something. The Clippers, the Sixers, the Grizzlies, and us. We're slightly tied under resigning our young guys, and the Clippers with Brand and Maggette. The Sixers have to work around Andre Igoudala. Basically in that situation, we have to wait for other teams a bit. I'll put more thoughts in later, but I gotta run!
Davis verbally agrees to go to Clippers, leave Warriors Baron Davis shocked the Warriors by opting out of his contract on Monday. Imagine their surprise now. NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com's Marc Stein that the guard reached a verbal agreement with the Clippers on Tuesday night and will sign a new multiyear contract with Los Angeles after the leaguewide moratorium on signings and trades is lifted July 9. Davis was in line to make $17.8 million in the last year of his deal with the Warriors, but after telling the team that he wanted to stay, opted out at the last minute. Sources told ESPN.com that Davis, 29, will receive a five-year deal worth an estimated $65 million. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3470016
They might even get some celebrities. I bet Maggette signs with a different team. (please god make it the celtics) haha
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>People in LA are going to bandwagon the Clippers now.</div> Unless they lose Brand and Maggette.
Not that big a deal in the long run. I would have liked to see the Warriors get something in a sign and trade but so be it. Baron was a pretty good Warrior for his stay but let's not forget he got paid a MAX deal for three years when he did not make one All-Star team and was hurt most of the first year. Thanks Baron for helping making the Warriors relevant again. But I will not be heartbroken because the reality is that he's 29, he's not in his prime and the Clippers are going to be wondering what they are doing in 2-3 years when they still have to pay him $30M+ and he's injury prone.
<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Real @ Jul 1 2008, 08:04 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Warriors have to hope Gilbert forgets about his first tenure with GS and signs with them.</div> I do not want Gilbert for $127M. That's way too much for someone who is not that big a difference maker. How about Deng? He would fit nicely in to that salary slot, with a discount, and he's significantly younger.
Well, business is business. I'm sad to see Baron go, but as soon as this becomes official, I'm going to start agreeing with every negative thing CR2 has mentioned about Baron in order to ease my pain. Baron, thanks for the memories. I hope your movie really sucks and makes no money.
Monta at PG. This guy at SG: <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE </div><div class='quotemain'>9. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors: No one is sure why the Warriors didn't play Pietrus more. He's one of the most athletic defenders in the league and he's a solid 3-point shooter. Some team will pick him up and try to use him in a Bruce Bowen-type role.</div>
You know, I wouldn't mind Pietrus back in a Warriors uni. But I'm not ready to give my full blessing for Monta at PG and Pietrus is definitely not starting SG material. We now have gaping holes at PG and PF (even if we're giving Brandon Wright this season to prove himself). I'm so confused.
Why isn't Pietrus a starting SG? There's been a logjam at his positions on the team all along, and now there's an opening where he fits.
Here's my cap analysis, you can probably skip a good bit of explanation if you just want to know that we have a bunch of cap room if Davis truly goes. The salary cap is expected to rise to about $58 million ($55.6 million is the current and average salaries went up roughly 5%). We're still on the books at about $58 million (we were at/near max, but then added a few minimum contracts and Kosta at 1.2 million or dipping into last year's mid-level), since free agent contracts still count (and count for more than they're actually worth for alot of them) until they're renounced or that free agent signs with another team. (By renouncing a player, a team can't use the Larry Bird, Early Bird, or Non-Bird exceptions, so we can't go over the cap to resign then, but we could sign them under the cap, or using other exceptions like the minimum contract exception, the Bi-annual, or the mid-level). We could easily renounce/see these guys sign elsewhere: Barnes at $3 mil, Pietrus at $3.5 mil, and O'Bryant at about $2.6 million, leaving us around $48-50 million in contracts with the Davis contract. However, when you go under the cap, the mid-level and other exceptions are added into the salary cap (unless also renounced, which is a bad idea) leaving the W's without cap room for free agents until Davis leaves. If Davis truly leaves, after renouncing those previously listed guys (and not Ellis/Biedrins/Azu) we'll have about $12.5 million in useable cap room, or a bit more if we decide to renounce the bi-annual or even the midlevel, which can happen after the agreement (i.e. if Arenas accepts, or to lure a different free agent). Compare that to the other teams with cap room, and you'll see that basically it's enough to outbid on a player unless its a restricted/Bird FA, in which case it could be matched or their old team could go further over the cap: Memphis, $13 million Philly, $11 million Charlotte, $13 million if Okafor signs elsewhere (unlikely) Clippers, $11 million if Maggette/Livingston renounced (basically they must be planning to, as this is the only way they could sign Baron) Seattle, $8 million Edit: Add 5.5 million to any of those teams if they're renouncing their midlevel; or about 1.6 million renouncing their bi-annual (if it's available, I don't keep track of all those teams' contracts!) Edit2: It's a bad idea to renounce the midlevel, since we're clearly going to be over the cap after Ellis/Biedrins. It's a better overall deal to have that 5.5 million available for spare parts, in my opinion. Baron going to the Clippers at 65 mil, 5 years means that Elton Brand resigns there for a bit less than what he's making, and that they renounce Maggette and Livingston. They then probably will sign a ton of the low-priced younger players like they played last season.
With Baron gone, what's the new direction of this team? Build around Ellis, Wright, Biedrins? Our lineup right now would be: PG: Monta Ellis/CJ Watson SG: Marco Belinelli SF: Stephen Jackson PF: Wright/Harrington C: Biedrins/Randolph Pietrus, Barnes, and Azubuike are all free agents and I'm not sure if Mullin will sign them or not. I guess we are far from the playoffs until all they young players develop. What should we do now? Sign free agents? Make some trades?
