I believe in the auditing process. If government owned the voting machines, does anyone think there wouldn't fraud? Ridiculous. Government employees are in the business of keeping their jobs. Which party is more likely to protect government employees? If a private company tries to defraud the public, the government can double-check and that company will go out of business. It's a big price to pay just to elect your candidate. If a government employee commits fraud by messing with the voting machines, it's much less likely to be audited. Also, that person would be unlikely to lose his or her job, much less the entire staff. I find it hilarious the government is some neutral arbiter.
RealClearPolitics top story under Electoral College Battle (first link in the left column). "Latest Ohio Polls Show Dead Heat." Sure enough, the last 4 polls show: Obama +1 Obama +3 TIE Obama +1 (within the margin of error in all cases, > +1 in one poll)
If the polls were outside the margin of error in your favor (e.g. Obama +5.5 on Oct. 3), and now they're even or +/- 1, the guy who's in the lead looks like he's losing that lead. Make that "has lost that lead."
I'm still pretty confident Obama will win, though in all honestly it's becoming a lot closer than I thought it would be. I'll give him about an 80% chance and expect him to pull away in the polls after another solid debate tomorrow.
Usually, I would agree, but look at the crosstabs. Most of these polls are assuming 2008 turnout models. If there is another 2008 turnout, then Romney's going to lose and lose big. However, what if it looks more like 2010? What if it's more like 2004? Then it's a wildly different story. I look at the actions of the candidates. North Carolina is gone. Obama has pulled out and Romney sent his top guy to Ohio. Florida and Virginia are likely gone. The campaigns have lessened their appearances in each state. Obama is campaigning in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wisconsin. Ryan is campaigning in Pennsylvania. Both are covering Ohio like crazy. Romney is coming to Colorado the day after the debate (I don't know if the President is returning). That tells you what their internals are telling them.
