Bull....I've asked a lot of folks about the Trump issue and they matter as much as the group you follow. I am good at gauging the weather patterns thanks to my farmer father and his knowledge of clouds and bird patterns. The weather reports are not accurate very often. Truth is subjective to everyone based on their distorted biases including you. Calling my views silly and pointless is just being contentious.
Your "asking people" isn't at all scientific. It's meaningless, almost entirely. Your analogies are silly and your demonstrated knowledge of polling is flawed. Your opinions are not something I've criticized along those lines.
On the contrary, asking people about this election in your own demographic is very real and important. You can choose not to value it or find my analogies uninteresting. Great thing about choice.
Your sample is unscientific. All you learn is your neighbors are liberal or whatever. You probably knew that before you even talked to them. Hell, if you asked your neighbors Obama or Romney before last election, you'd probably predict Obama win with 90% of the vote. Even the most inaccurate polls were within the margin of error when wrong.
agnostic...learn the game, then post..you want respect for your beliefs? I give you that, one would expect the same in return
I seem to remember Silver being a bumbling idiot and Denny having all the polls figured out last time. Until it was the exact opposite.
That's even worse. Agnostics are supposed to be the logical of the bunch. The fact you discredit true science and trust in farmers sniffing the air and watch how their dogs lick their balls for weather condition goes against the concept of agnosticism
Spoken like a truly fake Christian...disrespect my father, farmers, judge my opinion of science, trash my belief system. You are starting to sound like Trump
Just so you get where I'm coming from, I'm saying what I think may happen, but it's far from a prediction since I don't have any solid information to base my thoughts on. You are totally correct that so far all prognostications about a Trump downfall have been ill conceived at best. But that does not mean they will not eventually pan out. The way I see it, we have three groups of DT supporters whom I expect may waver as time goes on. 1) true conservatives who at the moment are just happy to support someone who is speaking against the establishments but eventually will pay closer attention to many of DT's political stances that don't align with theirs. 2) Folks who eventually start feeling his blustery, insulting talk isn't as much refreshing as it is offensive. Often this won't happen till he insults something they specifically care about. 3) Republicans who may like Trump but who start to fear that his demeanor will turn off independents and Reagan Democrats in the general election. I don't feel confident that this will happen, but I do think these groups are at risk of turning away from Trump. Only time will tell.
