I'm fine with you reading tea leaves, tarot cards, or whatever it is you do to predict the future. That's a sort of sphincter test. How much does it twitch when you think about it. Polls are scientific and objective, unless completely botched.
Yes, but polls don't say what will come, they say what is currently or what has occurred. You put a bunch of polls together and of course you can make some predictions but whenever we are dealing with new circumstances the predictions will be less reliable. Trump is a new situation. I can't think of anyone who was able to be as brash and insulting and yet still gain popularity. Yes, I'm reading tea leaves and in no way basing my semi-predictions on scientific data. But that doesn't mean having a good grasp of sociology can't help inform your assertions. We shall see what happens, I' not confident in my predictions, specifically because Trump has proven so many wrong so many times. But don't read more into the polls than they say either. Trump is doing well, but he is not even at 1/3 of the republicans, so there are lots of room for other candidates to gain followers as some of the gigantic field fades away. We shall see what happens. Personally I would like Trump to win over just about any other republican for several reasons, 1) he's entertaining, 2) He is very vulnerable in the general, 3) he is not a religious zealot so even if he somehow makes his way into office, I don't think he would be as damaging as most of the others.
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-general-election-polls-were-so-wrong-2015-5?r=UK&IR=T a bit of perspective about poll s From 132 nat'l polling stations in England, Wales and Scotland 1 correct poll 131 incorrect polls
Also, just because opinions are based on information other than scientific polls doesn't mean they are built on fallacy or whim. Your comparison of my prognostications to tarot cards or tea leaves assumes that the opinions are built on no valid information. Perhaps I can't substantiate them like I could if they were based on polling data or a census, but the opinions are based on putting together a complicated puzzle that includes people I have talked to, opinions of pundits, understanding of sociology and my grasp of the American pathos. The lines might not be as easy to draw as a Quinnipiac poll, but the lines do exist. We shall see who is right. If Trump makes it all the way to general, then you shall be right. Otherwise, your over-religance on the polls will have failed you.
George Gallup bet money on this one and lost The 1948 Presidential Election 1948 - Truman runs against Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican nominee in the 1948 presidential election. The scientific pollsters, including George Gallup, all predicted that Dewey would beat Truman. (Gallup had won a dramatic bet by correctly predicting the outcome of the 1936 election.) Newspapers were so sure the pollsters were right that they printed the headline, "Dewey Beats Truman." But they were wrong. Truman beat Dewey and the race wasn't even that close (Truman won by 3.5 percentage points). What had gone wrong? The pollsters had stopped polling a week before the election. They thought that people's votes would not change before the election. But in 1948 there were two strong independent candidates whose support eroded away in the last week. By stopping their polling too soon, the pollsters missed this shift away from the third party candidates back to the major parties. Since most of the votes shifted to Truman, he won the election. Related Links: Program Segment 7 Interviews: A. Gallup G. Gallup Moore Book Reference: Presidential Vote
I'm sure I could dig deeper and find polls that support my opinions but I'd rather work without a teleprompter
I've made no predictions at all here. All I've said is no matter how crude he's been, his standing in the polls have improved. I don't know if he's going to be the nominee. I do know the polls RIGHT NOW say he beats Sanders head to head, popular vote, and is far ahead of a deep republican slate of candidates.
Dewey Truman... The polls were accurate to within their margin of error. That's all you should expect from the polls. The strawman you set up to argue against is the polls are 100% accurate. Nobody but you has suggested that.
You have an argument theory? Science is great..I use it all the time but I'm not invested in your theories mags...just glad they make you happy
When did I ever suggest the polls were accurate. I said I don't trust them as facts and I don't...I didn't set up anything, it's all available for anybody to read .
Wow, you guys have been at it all day?!? A couple of things, Denny has always quoted statistics like a person who has never taken a statistic class. Then he manipulates the data to support his argument and I know he has taken one. Many of you should try and be a bit more respectful to each other. It doesn't matter which candidate you support, don't get caught up in the pro and con rhetoric about them. Never Sanders nor Trump support rape.
But you do, and believe your dad can watch a pig fuck giraffes and it will tell you when it rains. Science 101
I'll leave dads out of it, but I would love to watch a pig fuck a giraffe. And you thought Trump was entertaining.
