No way will Wes command that unless he has some freakishly amazing season coming up. Wes is too old to get a 10+ mil offer for any team next summer. He'll be 29 at the start of his next contract and no team will be willing to pay that for a SG with little upside. Compare that to Lance Stephenson is 23 and will be making 9 million for the Hornets the next two season. Rolo will likely get a deal in the 8-10 million range for four years since he'll be in his prime earning years after next season. I think something along the lines of the Splitter contract is realistic. With Kaman on the bench, it's a fairly safe assumption to think his number might be down a little from the previous season.
Stephenson's market was obviously depressed by the perception that he's half-insane. If he hadn't seemed unreliable mentally/emotionally, he absolutely would have gotten far more. I think it's extremely likely Matthews could get a $10M/year offer. He's a three-and-D guy, and those guys are extremely valued these days. He's in the middle of his prime. The cap (and NBA revenues) are going up, which means salaries will keep going up. Quality shooting guards are in short supply right now, which means the ones that exist will command higher salaries.
I think we can use the length of the deal we can offer to maybe structure the contract to our advantage, kinda like how we front loaded the deal we gave him to poison Utah.
Mathews will be in high demand. He is in his prime a great defender and 3p shooter and with the dearth of SG's he could be the best FA SG next year. 8-10 is not unrealistic for Mathews if he has another good year where he shoots the 3 over 38% and avgs somewhere between 13-16p. Also your severely undervaluing Lopez. Good Centers that come onto the Market always get overpaid and if Lopez has a similiar year he will be getting 13+ a year.
Tony Allen (similar PER to Wes) got $5 million per from the Grizz on his last contract when he was heading to his 30's. Teams don't break the bank for aging SGs that are role players. Fans on this board need to chill out and realize that Wes is a solid player, but the rest of the league will be spending their cash on younger player with upside (either real or imagined). Rolo is the guy that teams will be looking to poach.
Smh @ blindly using PER again. Wessy is a KNOCKDOWN shooter, while Allen is a liability on offense. He's a better defender, but a markedly worse offensive player. A better comparison for Matthews will be Afflalo when he becomes a free agent along with Wes next summer. And Lance's deal has been universally claimed as just a stepping stone to a much larger deal next time around. Tony Allen also has a pretty massive injury history, and he was clearly on the downside of his career when he signed, whereas Wes has been improving every season with POR. And his contract was signed last year before the massive inflation we've seen this summer (Jodie Meeks: 3/19, Hayward: max, Parsons: max, Bradley 4/32, etc). TBH, a 4/40 deal for Wessy doesn't faze me as much as I thought it would. Especially if the cap jumps to ~80mil in a few years.
Tony Allen is older and can't shoot. He's not a comp. It's not just about PER, it's also about skillsets and Matthews' skillset (defense and three point shooting) is a particularly valued one. And that's apart from being a younger player than Allen.
i mean, both sides of the argument are kinda right. will he get 10+MM? possibly does he deserve 10+MM? possibly
Pretty much everything I was going to say. Cant figure out how to give reputation on my phone so repped when I get home.
I would change the answers to "probably" (but not certainly) and "possibly." I can understand someone who doesn't think Matthews should be paid that much. But I think he will be and I don't think it's unreasonable for him to crack double-digit millions per year.
Deng, a former All-Star is getting $10 million per for 2 years from the Heat. Ariza got $8 million per for four years after Houston hit the panic button. I seriously doubt Wes sniffs anything like the Deng deal. I think his value and role are very similar to Ariza as defensive swing man entering his 30's. $7-8 is the market for him.
Neither is even close to Matthews' level as a three point shooter. If Ariza was a long-term 40% three point shooter (as opposed to a single fluky season) his market would have been higher. Deng also has a history of breaking down. "Former All Star" isn't relevant...he hasn't been clearly better than Matthews in terms of actual performance any time recently and doesn't have the same skillset. GMs don't bid based on "former All Star" status, otherwise Kaman would have been in line for a big contract rather than the MLE. You're also not addressing the fact that salaries are going to continue to rise with the revenues and cap.
Wes can't create like Deng, who last season averaged 19/7/4 on the Bulls before being traded. He is on another level above Wes in terms of offense, although not a massive one admittedly. Ariza was actually a better 3-point shooter than Wes last season (.407 vs. .393). I think Ariza is the best comparison in this off season to Wes. If Wes was a few years younger, he might command double digits, but his age will turn off a lot of teams with cap building around younger cores.
You referenced PER before; Deng has been in and around 15 PER the past 6 years, which is essentially where Matthews has stabilized. Deng handles and passes better than Matthews, but Matthews (at this point) plays better defense than Deng and shoots far better than Deng ever has. Offensive spacing is king these days and Matthews provides it. As for Ariza, I know he shot 40% last year but, as I said, in my previous post, that's a clear outlier in his career. I doubt any GM considers Ariza an elite three point shooter based on a single year. Matthews has been an elite shooter his entire career. There's currently no comparison between them as shooters and they're probably equivalent defenders. Ariza isn't a bad comp for Matthews, but Matthews is a better version: better shooter, similar defender, a year younger. If Ariza can get $8M, it's quite likely Matthews can get $10M.
