Pish posh! You speak of facts and context when he clearly is interested in arbitrary cherry picking of data to prove his point about how the Center of his team sucks and will suck now and forever AMEN. Not to nit pick too much, but it's microfracture surgery FYI which is far, FAR worse then arthroscopic surgery. You can also add Kenyon Martin and Zach Randolph to your list of MF guys oh and John Stockton and a few others. It takes two years to come back which is...now actually. So you're right this is his first REAL season. That's why I predict Greatness next year and flashes of superstardom this year with pretty good numbers when all is said and done. By 2010/11 though I expect uber domination.
The thing I've never bought about the argument that expansion has watered down the league is that it pretends the US population and the world popularity of basketball is stuck at 1960, and that the NBA was just as popular then as it is today. In 1960, there were literally half as many Americans as there are today (150 mil vs 300 mil). And in that era not a lot of black kids were really even trying to make it in the NBA, so the pool was even smaller. And it was completely unheard of to expect somebody from China or Lithuania or Argentina to try join the league. The talent pool the NBA has to draw on now is probably 3 to 5 times as large as it was back in 1960. And that talent pool now has far superior training and diet. And far more financial incentive to excel. The great centers of that era would obviously still be good in the current era. But their stats would be much more pedestrian because they'd face a much greater depth of quality. It'd be the difference between facing the current iteration of the Spurs and facing a Spurs team featuring Tim Duncan, Juan Dixon, Adam Morrison, Mark Madsen and Andre Miller. Yeah, Duncan and Miller are nice, but there are some really big fucking holes in that lineup too. If Kevin Garnett got to face that lineup 10 times a year, he'd have insanely good numbers, even with Duncan all over him.
With the way he's been playing lately, I wouldn't be surprised if he could average close to 16 points and 11 rebounds this season. The more he's on the floor, the more confident he's getting. You can see it game to game. And you are right. I almost would dare to say he will be our #2 or even #1 option in a couple years.
I agree entirely. People who talk about team expansion watering down the talent level rarely take into account expansion of the talent pool (US population growing, other markets, etc).
But there are also 3 - 5 times as many teams in the NBA (OK, 3.75 times as many) - and professional leagues all around the world. So, many more options for tall guys who want to make a living playing basketball. With the NBA salary cap, weak dollar, etc. many top international big men are finding it to their advantage to play professionally where they can make as much, or more, money playing a much shorter season. Also, by the early 1960s, pretty much every tall black inner city kid was being pushed into basketball as a way to escape poverty and make it big. While there was still signifiacnt racial inequality and discrimination in our country, the NBA was well on it's way to being intergrated and many of it's biggest stars (Russell, Wilt, Elgin Baylor, Oscar Robertson) were black and were the role models of every tall black kid in America. In any case, for whatever the reason, go back and look at the 2nd and 3rd team All-NBA centers from Shaq's prime and you will see that there was a long period when the talent level at the center position in the NBA was sorely lacking (putting it mildly) - for whatever reason. There were a lot more teams, but fewer excellent centers than during Russell's era (or Kareem's era, or now, for that matter). I'm not sure what caused that void in talented centers, but whatever the cause, the fact that there were few excellent centers AND 28 - 30 team in the league meant Shaq rarely went head-to-head with another hall of fame caliber center during his prime. Wilt and Russell (or Kareem, Hakeem, David Robinson, etc.) were much more likely to be up against a great center on any given night than Shaq was in his prime. That was my point, regardless of US population and other factors. BNM
Absolutely correct about Shaq benefitting from ZERO competition during his prime. That is one of the reasons I've always felt Shaq was over rated. I think he is HOF caliber to be sure, I just think his dominance was skewed by a lack of quality big men. The broken down shell of Sabonis looked like the greatest center defender in the league in 2000, and that's probably because he WAS the best center in the league to defend Shaq. Once you add in the lower the shoulder and charge into a standing man AND get to the line as well, you see that his scoring was inflated. If Shaq had been called like Oden is now, he would have fouled out in the 2nd quarter. What Shaq did in those days was a foul every bit as much as it is now. Unfortunately, it was at the begining of Stern's wet dream inducing Laker Dynasty and it was pretty clear who was going to win (Paging Tim Donaghy!). If Oden got calls like Shaq did he would already be averaging 20 a game or more simply by being on the court more, not to mention his additional free throws. Shaq didn't change the game, Stern changed it for Shaq and then when Shaq was no longer useful to Stern he changed the rules to what they already were.
