Blazer Position Rankings

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by cmeese47, Jun 16, 2014.

  1. cmeese47

    cmeese47 Well-Known Member

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    I knew schools were poor in Montana but Connecticut is like a 1000 miles to the north.
     
  2. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    This thread was interesting to me because it is so subjective. I decided to look at some statistics to make the rankings. I like using WS/48 because it evens things out for minutes played & it is a way to take the "little things" like tips & deflections (or the hustle plays) into account.

    The following is a 2 year average of the players at each position (with a minimum of 25 starts & 500-minutes in the season). In cases like Brook Lopez who missed a significant portion of a year, I used their career average WS/48 for the second year. Data is from basketball-reference.com

    Here are the results:
    Point Guard
    PG Year 1 Year 2 Average
    Tier 1
    1. Chris Paul 0.287 0.270 0.279
    2. Stephen Curry 0.225 0.180 0.203
      Tier 2
    3. Russell Westbrook 0.195 0.178 0.187
    4. Tony Parker 0.206 0.141 0.174
      Tier 3
    5. Mike Conley 0.172 0.161 0.167
    6. George Hill 0.177 0.154 0.166
    7. Kyle Lowry 0.197 0.133 0.165
    8. Deron Williams 0.184 0.125 0.155
    9. Goran Dragic 0.186 0.106 0.146
    10. Damian Lillard 0.157 0.088 0.123
    11. Jose Calderon 0.165 0.122 0.144
    12. Ty Lawson 0.141 0.136 0.139
    13. Isaiah Thomas 0.149 0.114 0.132
    14. John Wall 0.134 0.128 0.131
    15. Eric Bledsoe 0.140 0.115 0.128
    16. Kyrie Irving 0.128 0.125 0.127
    17. Darren Collison 0.136 0.114 0.125
    I have to admit that I bumped Lillard up a few spots because of that 0.088 WS/48 as a rookie. Otherwise he would be 17th. The top 4 are just who everyone would expect. After 4, the next 10-12 are very close to each other. This list also does not include Rose since he has been hurt for much of the last 2 years.

    Shooting Guard
    Tier 1
    1. James Harden 0.221 0.206 0.214
      Tier 2
    2. Dwyane Wade 0.192 0.149 0.171
    3. Kobe Bryant 0.174 0.132 0.153
    4. Jimmy Butler 0.131 0.158 0.145
      Tier 3
    5. Kevin Martin 0.117 0.157 0.137
    6. Kyle Korver 0.137 0.118 0.128
    7. Danny Green 0.128 0.122 0.125
    8. Lance Stephenson 0.130 0.115 0.123
    9. J.J. Redick 0.147 0.091 0.119
    10. Thabo Sefolosha 0.146 0.092 0.119
    11. Wesley Matthews 0.142 0.093 0.118
      Tier 4
    12. Marco Belinelli 0.140 0.076 0.108
    13. DeMar DeRozan 0.141 0.075 0.108
    14. Tony Allen 0.115 0.100 0.108
    15. C.J. Miles 0.122 0.092 0.107
    16. Courtney Lee 0.114 0.082 0.098
    17. Gordon Hayward 0.123 0.062 0.093
    18. Klay Thompson 0.112 0.070 0.091
    Again, the players you would expect are still at the top. The values show the relative weakness of the position in the NBA at this point. Mathews is just about were you would expect. The two surprises to me are that Gordon Hayward & Klay Thompson are ranked so low.

    Small Forwards
    Tier 1
    1. LeBron James 0.322 0.264 0.293
    2. Kevin Durant 0.295 0.291 0.293
      Tier 2
      Tier 3
    3. Kawhi Leonard 0.193 0.166 0.180
    4. Carmelo Anthony 0.184 0.172 0.178
    5. Paul George 0.178 0.145 0.162
      Tier 4
    6. Danilo Gallinari 0.151 0.140 0.146
    7. Andre Iguodala 0.135 0.124 0.130
    8. Paul Pierce 0.135 0.119 0.127
    9. DeMarre Carroll 0.119 0.134 0.127
    10. Chandler Parsons 0.131 0.121 0.126
    11. Nicolas Batum 0.128 0.124 0.126
    12. Martell Webster 0.138 0.112 0.125
    13. Trevor Ariza 0.141 0.102 0.122
      Tier 5
    14. Mike Dunleavy 0.121 0.109 0.115
    15. P.J. Tucker 0.117 0.098 0.108
    16. Andrei Kirilenko 0.142 0.070 0.106
    17. Gerald Green 0.126 0.069 0.098
    LeBron & Durant are both beasts. Having a WS/48 near 0.3 is unbelievable. It also shows how far Leonard, Melo, & George have to go to get in the same category. Again, this metric places Batum near the players we would expect him to be around (Parsons, Ariza, AI, etc.)
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2014
  3. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    Post Continued....

    Center
    Year 1 Year 2 Average
    Tier 1
    1. Brook Lopez 0.191 0.211 0.201
    2. Anthony Davis 0.212 0.159 0.186
      Tier 2
    3. Tiago Splitter 0.197 0.163 0.180
    4. Andre Drummond 0.182 0.172 0.177
    5. Tyson Chandler 0.207 0.143 0.175
      Tier 3
    6. Joakim Noah 0.190 0.145 0.168
    7. Marc Gasol 0.197 0.137 0.167
    8. DeAndre Jordan 0.186 0.148 0.167
    9. Nikola Pekovic 0.169 0.163 0.166
    10. Anderson Varejao 0.173 0.144 0.159
    11. Robin Lopez 0.176 0.126 0.151
    12. Kosta Koufos 0.171 0.124 0.148
    13. Dwight Howard 0.161 0.134 0.148
    14. Al Horford 0.153 0.141 0.147
    15. Marcin Gortat 0.146 0.147 0.147
    16. Samuel Dalembert 0.147 0.137 0.142
    17. Andrew Bogut 0.176 0.106 0.141
    18. DeMarcus Cousins 0.166 0.095 0.131
    19. Roy Hibbert 0.129 0.108 0.119
    20. Timofey Mozgov 0.123 0.099 0.111
    21. Nikola Vucevic 0.116 0.106 0.111
    22. Larry Sanders 0.149 0.057 0.103
    This list had some surprises to me. I didn't expect Brook to be so dominate. I placed Davis in the Tier 1 because it is only his second year, & he had a dramatic improvement from year 1 to year 2. I was really surprised that Howard & Hibbert were so low... but it makes sense considering how aloof they are sometimes.

    Power Forward
    Year 1 Year 2 Average
    Tier 1
    1. Kevin Love 0.245 0.223 0.234
    2. Blake Griffin 0.205 0.196 0.201
      Tier 2
    3. Tim Duncan 0.191 0.164 0.178
    4. Serge Ibaka 0.181 0.173 0.177
    5. Dirk Nowitzki 0.199 0.145 0.172
    6. David West 0.179 0.157 0.168
    7. Chris Bosh 0.175 0.152 0.164
      Tier 3
    8. Kenneth Faried 0.167 0.144 0.156
    9. David Lee 0.160 0.150 0.155
    10. Terrence Jones 0.169 0.128 0.149
    11. Al Jefferson 0.146 0.143 0.145
    12. Ed Davis 0.159 0.129 0.144
    13. Jordan Hill 0.141 0.147 0.144
    14. Ersan Ilyasova 0.159 0.128 0.144
    15. Amir Johnson 0.151 0.136 0.144
    16. Paul Millsap 0.154 0.129 0.142
    17. LaMarcus Aldridge 0.144 0.124 0.134
    18. Jonas Valanciunas 0.141 0.127 0.134
    19. Zach Randolph 0.145 0.113 0.129
    20. Trevor Booker 0.132 0.126 0.129
    21. Kris Humphries 0.143 0.109 0.126
    22. Josh McRoberts 0.132 0.116 0.124
    23. Thaddeus Young 0.136 0.110 0.123
      Tier 4
    24. J.J. Hickson 0.142 0.092 0.117
    25. Nene Hilario 0.116 0.117 0.117
    26. Derrick Favors 0.112 0.117 0.115
    27. Shawn Marion 0.127 0.086 0.107
    28. Kevin Garnett 0.133 0.054 0.094
    Now this list is going to piss a lot of people in the forum off. It definitely was not my intention for this to be the result when I looked into the actual numbers.

    This metric has been consistently identifying the best players in the league and ranking them in the top 1-3 positions. This is no exception as Love & Griffin take the top to spots (by a sizable margin I might add). Here, LMA is ranked 17th. There is a close enough difference in WS numbers that I could possibly justify him being ranked as high as 10 (right behind David Lee). The "perception" is that LMA is one of the best players in the league. Based on this metric, he is no where near that. When I try to reconcile why he ranks so low compared to his perceived peers, I believe it is because he doesn't do the little things to make his team better. He has all the talent to be better than Love or Griffin, but he puts little to no effort into things like going for loose balls, rotating defensively, or taking charges.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2014
  4. Rhal

    Rhal Well-Known Member

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    I think using one stat to rank a player always has major flaws. WS/PER/+ - all have their drawbacks when used just by themselves and thats because there is no "end all stat" for discussing basketball, if there was it would be really easy to rank players. Its why so many teams have several analytics people devoted to crunching tons of different numbers to come up with someones worth.
     
  5. H.C.

    H.C. Well-Known Member

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    @ tester.

    That's such an incomplete list.
    Just looking @ the shooting guard spots.
    Derozan adds less to his team than Korver added to his. Jimmy Butler also provided more to his team Stevenson as well...... Marco Belinelli really?

    looking @ the power forward position.. Jordan Hill, Ed Davis, Terrance Jones, Amir Johnson added more to their teams than Aldridge did...
    Some of these players are bench players, that should not be starting on playoff teams.

    Not going through all of them.
    (not quoting both posts)
     
  6. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    You guys should say something when we have a troll in the forum. We can get rid of them a lot quicker.
     
  7. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    We need a grammar troll to tell you that quicker is an adjective, not an adverb.
     
  8. jlprk

    jlprk The ESPN mod is insane.

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    No reconciling needed. It's obvious to the unbiased eyeball test. Aldridge thinks only about shooting. If he had any ambition, he could be the best player in the league.
     
  9. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

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    Starting to recycle your old Rasheed Wallace posts, I see.
     
  10. H.C.

    H.C. Well-Known Member

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    that's a little bit of an overstatement. Seriously doubt there is a way he could pass LBJ/Durant.........................

    Not going to bother with the rest of your post, it's obviously "unbiased" and "non-homer"
     
  11. cmeese47

    cmeese47 Well-Known Member

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    So who was panther fan just a random troll or an old member scorned
     
  12. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    I am not saying that the WS/48 is the end all - be all statistic, and readily admit that there is a lot more that needs and should go into evaluations. However, this stat also has a strong correlation with the best players in the league. When players no not rank with their "piers" (either positively or negatively), more investigation ought to be done as to why.

    Regarding Derozon / Korver / Butler - remember this is a two year average. Derozon really came on this year, but the prior year really hurt him. I still don't believe he is anywhere as good as he gets credit for (sort of like Rudy Gay). Korver has been fairly consistent. Butler is admittedly higher than I expected, however I also I think he does more to help his team win than people give him credit for.
     
  13. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    IP address is unique. No current or previous members are using it.

    From Fort Mill, South Carolina.
     
  14. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Schools in Montana aren't poor at all. :dunno:

    Last I checked, the IP addy was from South Carolina, anyhow.
     
  15. cmeese47

    cmeese47 Well-Known Member

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    I would imagine that a large part of Butlers WS comes from his def.
     
  16. cmeese47

    cmeese47 Well-Known Member

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    So then why the ban? His posts while not exactly flattering to the Blazers, they were hardly ban worthy.
     
  17. cmeese47

    cmeese47 Well-Known Member

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    Really Montanta State University ranked Montana 49/49 in teacher quality with no data available from Oregon.

    The American Legislative exchange council annual report card gave Montana a D in their educational policy.

    So they have bad teachers and a bad policy.

    They did manage a c- from education week and a rank of 44/51. DC making 51.

    Not even from Michelle Whee the ever controversial studentsfirst pundit was kind giving Montana an F and a rank of 50/50.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2014
  18. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    The same Terrence Jones who LMA destroyed in the Houston series? He adds more than LMA?

    Get the fuck out with that gibberish. Either it's an obvious attempt to troll, or the person posting it knows nothing about basketball. Either way, it's a foolish opinion.
     
  19. PapaG

    PapaG Banned User BANNED

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    Take a look at test scores. North Carolina and Oregon both do worse on than ACT and SAT than Montana. Does that make people from North Carolina and Oregon generally dumber than those from Montana? Anyhow, I'm quite happy with the schooling I received. It's served me well.
     
  20. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I didn't like him.
     

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