Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th seed

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Repped.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Thats some good research and great stats.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

...but trading LMA for lesser players and a draft pick, while still having Lillard/Batum/Wes, is going to insure the Blazers have one of the worst records in the NBA?

If you don't want to see playoffs for multiple seasons, let alone a 7th seed, then MM's approach is the way to go.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

KingSpeed basically posted the same thing prior in this thread.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

If BNM post is correct, that means since 1998-2012, which is the last 15 years of draft picks, there has been ONE top 5 pick that won a title with the team that drafted him. One out of the last 75. That is barely over a 1% probability. That is stunning, possibly the best stats I've ever seen to confirm my feelings that tanking is in general a poor strategy. I thought tanking was better than that, maybe even I had been overvaluing its effectiveness.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yes, we are just as good as they are

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I look at small market teams and see more times than not, if they are a serious contender it's because of the draft. Drafting higher increases your chance of getting a better player. whether that happens or not is a different story. Our own beloved frailblazers are a great example. Oden, Aldridge, Roy was a great core, and if healthy would probably be the second best team in the league...at worst.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The Blazers can make the play-offs if everything goes right. When was the last time that happened?

Good teams don't have to rely on good luck and/or opponents' bad luck.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

They do if they play in the NBA Western Conference where there are about 12 teams that are good enough to get into the playoffs.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Actually, I did the research and posted the results in another thread two months ago on May 31.

Even though I knew about Wade, he was the first one that came into my mind, I inadvertently neglected to include him in the tabulated results. Here are those results corrected to include Wade:

How many top 5 picks taken since 1997 (the year Duncan was drafted) have won championships (or better still, how many have been the best player on a championship team)?

Here's the top 5 draft picks over the last 15 years:

1st Pick:
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose
2007 Greg Oden
2006 Andrea Bargnani
2005 Andrew Bogut
2004 Dwight Howard
2003 Lebron James
2002 Yao Ming
2001 Kwame Brown
2000 Kenyon Martin
1999 Elton Brand
1998 Michael Olowokandi

2nd Pick:
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2011 Derrick Williams
2010 Evan Turner
2009 Hasheem Thabeet
2008 Michael Beasley
2007 Kevin Durant
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge
2005 Marvin Williams
2004 Emeka Okafor
2003 Darko Milicic
2002 Jay Williams
2001 Tyson Chandler
2000 Stromile Swift
1999 Steve Francis
1998 Mike Bibby

3rd Pick:
2012 Bradley Beal
2011 Enes Kanter
2010 Derrick Favors
2009 James Harden
2008 O.J. Mayo
2007 Al Horford
2006 Adam Morrison
2005 Deron Williams
2004 Ben Gordon
2003 Carmelo Anthony
2002 Mike Dunleavy
2001 Pau Gasol
2000 Darius Miles
1999 Baron Davis
1998 Raef LaFrentz

4th Pick:
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul
2004 Shaun Livingston
2003 Chris Bosh
2002 Drew Gooden
2001 Eddy Curry
2000 Marcus Fizer
1999 Lamar Odom
1998 Antawn Jamison

5th Pick:
2012 Thomas Robinson
2011 Jonas Valanciunas
2010 DeMarcus Cousins
2009 Ricky Rubio
2008 Kevin Love
2007 Jeff Green
2006 Shelden Williams
2005 Raymond Felton
2004 Devin Harris
2003 Dwyane Wade
2002 Nickoloz Tskitishvili
2001 Jason Richardson
2000 Mike Miller
1999 Jonathan Bender
1998 Vince Carter

That's really quite shocking. In the last 15 drafts, one No. 1 pick, one No. 2 pick, two No. 3 picks, two No. 4 picks and two No. 5 picks have won an NBA championship, and of those, only LeBron and Wade (the first time) were the best players on their championship teams. In fact, Wade is the only player drafted top 5 in the last 15 years has won a championship for the team that drafted him. And, of the 8 total top five picks that have won rings, 4 of them (LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Mike Miller) had to combine forces to get their rings. Still think years of suckage and high lottery picks is the best way to win an NBA title?

P.S. What's really scary is Adam Morrison is the last top 5 pick to win a championship - as a seldom used scrub for a team that didn't draft him.

BTW, even if you go back 20 or 25 years, it only gets marginally better with guys like Shaq (not with the team that drafted him) and David Robinson that won rings. You really need to go back to the late 70s and early 80s before you see a significant number of top 5 draft picks (Hakeem, Jordan, Magic, Worthy, etc.) that won rings with the teams that drafted them. Of course, player movement as MUCH less common back then. The top players tended to play all, or at least most, of their careers with the team that drafted them.

Based on this historical data, I think the notion that the best way a small market team can win a ring is to deliberately suck and hope to build through high lottery picks is incorrect. The data just does not support that hypotheses.

BNM

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Interesting data, but not all that surprising. I mean, when you take into account that only - what, 8? - teams have won championships in the past 30 years it really kinda takes the wind out of those sails. Also, when you consider that some teams have been poorly run for decades on end it should come as no surprise that, despite having high draft picks, they aren't able to turn their fortunes around - some of the best young talent goes to teams that are incapable of fielding a competitive team (from Owner down through the Bench).
So I think it's a bit disingenuous to use this data to refute the idea that a team can build through the draft. As long as you have a competent front office, higher draft picks (not necessarily the #1) will go further in helping you build a competitive team - especially when the team is in a small market and can't rely on landing top tier free agents. Maybe those draft picks won't directly lead you to a championship, but they give you more value to make better moves down the road.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

You can build through the draft. The point seems to me to be that getting high lottery picks doesn't guarantee success, and looking at teams like Indy and San Antonio, that drafting the right players, regardless of where you pick, is more important. Sure, Duncan was a #1 pick, but Parker was late first-round, and Ginobli was 2nd-round and didn't come over right away to the NBA.

Trading All-Stars for scrubs and draft picks doesn't guarantee anything other than you need to immediately replace an All-Star.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I agree with PapaG on this one. We already have two, really, really good players that were acquired with high lottery picks. One is a multiple time all star in his prime (just turned 28) and the other just won rookie of the year. What's the point of trading your best player for more lottery picks in the hope that you may get someone who will turn out as good several years down the road? Giving away your best player for scrubs and future lottery picks seems like several steps backwards with the hope that after 3 or 4 more years of losing you may get back to where you are now. I know the goal is to get better - long term, but there is no guarantee and the data shows the opposite is more likely true, for a variety of reasons (poor drafting, bad luck, injuries, etc.). So, if we capitulate and trade Aldridge, go into total tank mode for the next 3 or 4 years, at that point Lillard will probably grow tired of the losing and we'll be looking at once again losing our best player and starting over.

I think the whole losing deliberately to get better strategy is a complete fallacy. History shows it rarely, if ever works.

I really believe we have what it takes to make the playoffs this year. Last year, in spite of no interior defense and the worst bench in the entire history of the NBA, we were 3 games under .500 and still in the running for the 8th seed with a month to go in the season. Our GM has addressed our biggest weaknesses, we now have a legitimate 7' NBA starting center who will vastly improve our interior defense and our bench will be WAY better. Our GM did a good job of infusing our bench with a combination of veterans (Wright and Watson) and young talent (Robinson, McCollum). Plus, 6 of the guys (Lillard, Leonard, Freeland, Claver, Barton and Robinson) who will likely be in our top 10 in minutes were rookies last season. They are bound to show some improvement.

At the very least, we need to let this team play half a season together to see where they are at and what we are missing. To me, it makes ZERO sense to trade Aldridge now. He's under contract for two more full seasons. I think if we are winning more games than we are losing, and make the playoffs, that will be enough forward progress to keep him from demanding a trade for at least another year. The goal should be to get better, year by year. Winning and getting better is enough to keep most players happy.

BNM

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Question for you. which team has a better chance of winning

Aldridge, Parker and Ginobili

or

Duncan, Lillard, Batum

Star players win in this league, and the chances of getting one in the top 5 is much greater than getting in the bottom 5

It's not 100%, as teams like Indiana, and the Kings have demonstrated, but it's close.

of the list, that was provided, most of those players made their teams a lot better. It's not their fault that management couldn't complete the build, or they were injured.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

BNM, S2 won't let me rep you again. But I love data. I'm a data geek. Thanks for posting.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I've been saying this for the last couple years. The only top 3 pick (meaning you won the lottery) since Duncan (drafted in 1997) to win a title with the team that drafted him is Darko Milicic. That is it. So glad that people are finally paying attention to this.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

You forgot Darko.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Everyone knows that. The point is that SINCE DUNCAN, who was drafted 16 years ago, only 1 top 3 pick has won a title for the team that drafted him. Darko Milicic. That is it. 1 out of 48. And he was just a bench warmer.