Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th seed

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I don't think that there's doubt that you can build a competitive team through the draft, just that it's not the only, or even best way, to go about it. It's certainly not the panacea that some around here seem to think it is. NBA history shows that far more teams that frequent the lottery tend to stay in the lottery rather than becoming title contenders. Probably the best recent example of the kind of through-the-draft small market rebuild that you're talking about is OKC. In 2007 they drafted Durant, widely viewed as a one of those franchise-defining players who come along very infrequently, and then were able to draft a complementary All-Star level player the following year in Russell Westbrook. I think you'd have to agree those are some pretty fortunate lottery results and not ones likely to be replicated for every cellar-dwelling team. Now, five years after drafting Westbrook, the Thunder made the Finals once and likely would have gone there again if Westbrook hadn't been injured this year. They'll be looked upon as one of the favorites to come out of the West this year. But they're the shining example of the best case for a draft rebuild. Houston, the Clippers, the Grizzlies and the Warriors are all snapping at their heels and they are examples of what can be done by a team making trades and adding players through free agency to make the leap from the Blazers' level to contending status. And please don't bring up the tired old argument that the Blazers can never add a quality FA because they're a small market team. FA signings like Iguodala and Kevin Martin show that many players are looking for teams that are on the cusp of becoming contenders.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Right, so A) trying to win the lottery is pointless and B) Shaq was drafted by Orlando who still has no titles and Kobe was drafted 13th. So it still stands. The top 3 pick almost never leads the team who drafted him to titles. And in 16 years of drafts, it's only happened once.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

In the last 25 years, here are the teams that played for the title, their respective star players who led them there, and where they were picked

89'
Lakers: Kareem (1), Magic (1), Worthy (1)
Pistons: Thomas (2), Dantley (6), Aguire (1), Dumars (18)

90'
Portland: Drexler (14), Porter (24), Williams (3)
Detroit: Thomas (2), Dantley (6), Aguire (1), Dumars (18)

91'
Lakers: Kareem (1), Magic (1), Worthy (1)
Bulls: Jordan (3), Pippen (5), Grant (10)

92'
Blazers: Drexler (14), Porter (24), Williams (3)
Bulls: Jordan (3), Pippen (5), Grant (10)

93'
Suns: Barkley(5), Majerle (14), Johnson (7)
Bulls: Jordan (3), Pippen (5), Grant (10)

94'
Rockets: Olajuwan (1), Thorpe (9), Smith (6)
Knicks: Ewing (1), Oakley (9), Starks (ND)

95'
Rockets: Olajuwan (1), Drexler (14), Smith (6)
Magic: Shaq (1), Penny (3), Scott (4), Grant (10)

96'
Sonics: Payton (2), Kemp (17), Schrempf (8)
Bulls: Jordan (3), Pippen (5), Kukoc (29)

97'
Jazz: Malone (13), Stockton (16)
Bulls: Jordan (3), Pippen (5), Kukoc (29)

98'
Malone (13), Stockton (16)
Bulls: Jordan (3), Pippen (5), Kukoc (29)

99'
Spurs: Duncan (1), Robinson (1), Elliott (3)
Knicks: Ewing (1), Houston (11), Johnson (1)

00'
Lakers: Shaq (1), Kobe (13), Rice (4)
Pacers: Rose (13), Miller (11), Smits (2)

01'
Lakers: Shaq (1), Kobe (13)
76ers: Iverson (1)

02'
Lakers: Shaq (1), Kobe (13)
Nets: Kidd (2), Vanhorn (2), Kittles (8)

03'
Spurs: Duncan (1), Parker (28), Robinson (1)
Nets: Kidd (2), Martin (1), Jefferson (13)

04'
Lakers: Shaq (1), Kobe (13), Payton (2)
Pistons: Hamilton (7), Billups (3), Wallace (4)

05'
Spurs: Duncan (1), Parker (28), Ginobili (57)
Pistons: Hamilton (7), Billups (3), Wallace (4)

06'
Mavs: Nowitzki (9), Terry (10), Stackhouse (3)
Heat: Shaq (1). Wade (5)

07'
Spurs: Duncan (1), Parker (28), Ginobili (57)
Cavs: James (1) Hughes (8), Ilgouskas (20)

08'
Lakers: Kobe (13), Gasol (3), Odom (4)
Celtics: Pierce (10), Garnett (5), Allen (5)

09'
Lakers: Kobe (13), Gasol (3), Odom (4)
Magic: Howard (1), Lewis (32), Hedo (16)

10'
Lakers: Kobe (13), Gasol (3), Bynum (10)
Celtics: Pierce (10), Garnett (5), Allen (5)

11'
Mavs: Nowitzki (9), Chandler (2), Kidd (2)
Heat: James (1), Wade (5), Bosh (4)

12'
Thunder: Durant (2), Westbrook (4) Harden (3)
Heat; James (1), Wade (5), Bosh (4)

13'
Spurs: Duncan (1), Parker (28), Ginobili (57)
Heat: James (1), Wade (5), Bosh (4)

Ok, that was way more work that it was worth, but if you look at the finals teams, and the players who were largely responsible for leading them there, you see a hell of a lot of low numbers. naming players that won for the team that drafted them isn't the story, IMO. Great teams are led by great players, period. Most great players are found in the top 5 of the draft.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

That was a waste of time, MM. So sorry. No one debates that the top picks win titles but in modern times, they don't do it for the TEAM THAT DRAFTED THEM. Orlando won Shaq, Cleveland won LeBron, Memphis won Pau, but Orlando and Cleveland and Memphis DON'T HAVE TITLES. Out of 48 picks in the last 16 drafts, only one has won the title for the team that drafted him. Darko.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Back in the 80s and 90s, players didn't force trades like they do now nor did they switch teams as often.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

It was not a waste of time. drafting the players is the key. That's the debate. You have to draft a great player and then be able to put players around him. If players left it's because of poor management.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I think what mm is saying (maybe) is that (1) you need star players to win a title, (2) most if not all star players are drafted in the top 5 of the draft, and (3) how is Portland going to get one or more star players, if not through the draft? The choices are (1) free agency (never ever going to happen), (2) trade for one (in the modern collusion era, would a star even approve a trade here?), or (3) the draft.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Even Denny, who hates me, agrees.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yes, that's the point.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

What is the point of drafting them when they move to another team before winning a title? I think you're missing the point, which is the teams that draft these 'superstars' in the Top 3 picks lose those players to larger markets/better title opportunity. It's a neat list you researched, but it doesn't address what is being debated, which is a team like Portland tanking to get a top pick after letting an All-Star PF go for projects and picks. History shows that approach doesn't work. Your own list shows this to be the case.

Orlando is just another team since Dwight Howard left. Cleveland is garbage without James.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

I know that some have advocated for tanking this season, but I haven't (yet). I just don't think that we'll be much worse after trading LMA - depending on the trade I think we'd end up slightly worse and potentially the same. The CHI trade, for example, would immediately replace LMA with Boozer. Now, from a player-value POV there's a huge drop-off. But from a W/L POV I think we come out about equal. Other trades (GS) may drop us a few spots in the short-term, but we certainly wouldn't be "losing deliberately".

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The Bulls built a dynasty drafting the best player of all-time at #3, and one of the best all-around players at #5. Duncan is the baseline. Other than that, you just proved that drafting mid-lotto or later, historically, is better for the team that drafts those players than drafting in the Top 3.

Wade didn't sniff a title until Shaq decided to go there, and the odds of an MVP-level player coming to Portland via FA are zero.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

First of all, nobody is denying what happened 25 years ago, which is why Duncan and the lottery era are the baseline. Tanking made a bit more sense when you could be guaranteed the top pick, or a top two pick later, by being historically bad.

You are offering information that literally has nothing to do with the discussion of building through the draft in the recent past and present of the NBA.

 

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Charlotte drafted Bryant, and he went 13th in that draft. Everybody concedes that Duncan is the exception in the modern NBA.

You are arguing a point that nobody is making. It's odd.