Blazers by the Numbers- a series of in-depth looks at this iteration of the Trailblazers

Nice posts! Thanks. I hadn't made my mind up about Plumlee, and you've definitely given me a lot to consider.

One thing I will say is that he's 25 and has only been in the league for three years, the first two with the basket case New Jersey Nets (not the greatest place to develop young talent), always looking over his shoulder at Brook Lopez playing the same position. I think he can improve some.

But yeah, I don't think he's ever going to be the starting center on a championship team.

 

First write-up was fantastic! I look forward to reading more. A personal request: How do McCollum and Lillard play together from a number perspective? Do they show signs of being able to co-exisist efficiently and effectively in the backcourt for the long haul?

 

One thing about Mason's shooting though. I'm wondering if he's just going through an abnormal slump finishing at the rim. He was quite good earlier in the year but has taken a nosedive since.

He's shooting 50.8% on the year. Acceptable, but kind of confusing as he shot 57% and 66% the two years prior on roughly the same usage and shots/36. Naturally, you wouldn't want to extrapolate P/36 shooting numbers as taking more shots usually tanks your efficiency, but he only took .7 less actual shots per game last year while shooting 57%.

We know his shot chart is pretty much the same since he's been in the league. That is, he shoots at the rim and finishes putbacks. He's getting the same kind of shots, I'm more inclined to believe he's just going through a slump or is having an extended period of terrible luck at the rim.

 

I don't think Plumlee has even come close to his ceiling which is a good thing. He's gotten better at the line already. Shooting coach?

 

Is it possible that he's facing better competition, protecting the rim against him as a starter vs facing a bench rim protector early in his career? Perhaps the early season success was an anomaly and he's simply regressed to the mean after scouting?

 

This is something I'm taking my sweet time on. The Lillard/McCollum dynamic is hard to examine from any kind of historical perspective b/c there's really not a lot to point to. The first thing I think of off hand is Steph Curry/Monta Ellis- however Ellis' game is so vastly different from CJ's that the parallels are hard to draw.

I will say this- on the offensive side of the floor- they overlap with the ability to create off the bounce but in different ways; Dame hesitation/step back, CJ crossover/hesitation/fade- and they can both knock down 3s- however CJ is MUCH better in the midrange. Not only knocking down the shot but his ability to square up while putting his defender off balance- much like Westbrook does- and that's incredibly valuable b/c the Blazers don't have many guys who can hit that on this roster. This however is countered by CJ's terrible finishing ability inside. Much of the differences between CJ/Dame lie inside- Lillard goes to the hole more often and finishes better (although still struggles) and thus draws more free throws. CJ's drive to the rim rate is much lower, he finishes at an even lower rate, and draws even less free throws. All of those need to start trending upwards otherwise teams will start pushing him off his spots in the midrange.

Where I'm a bit worried about the two of them going forward is on defense. On offense they're different enough that they can not only co-exist but thrive. However, the reverse is true on the other end of the court. Lillard has made some pretty sizable growth this year- even more so to the eye test the past week- on the defensive end. CJ, is a complete train wreck in the PnR. In isolation. And in the post. He shows up in a negative light just as bad or worse than Plumlee. Unless the Blazers some how manage to sign AD or draft a Gobert- there's no amount of backline defense to cover that much ineptitude from the guards.

I've kind of given away how I feel about them both here- but I'm putting together a much deeper, numbers based argument to support/deny any claims or ideas I may currently have about them today and going forward. I think there's lots of room for hope and optimism, however I feel that there's some serious gaps that need to be addressed otherwise this experiment will be over with rather quickly.

 

I would like to see the insight expended on regarding the defensive struggles. We know the O is there from both and that seems to work great between them. However, my eyeballs say that while both suck at D it is CJ who is the one who is sucking less on that end of the court. Dame has been the trainwreck from my vantage point but I would be happy to see the data like you have laid out with Plumlee on this when you get time (down the road). If either/both could get say 25% better on the defensive end then I think you could keep them longterm. The good news is they both seem to know that they need to work on it and are taking steps to get there.

 

Which is why I don't trust my (or your) eyeballs on this one. I would like to see some data. No rush on it but I think that would be great as a follow-up down the road.

 

It's possible, but he's had good shooting nights against good rim protectors this season. Honestly the sample size is kind of small to draw any sort of conclusions on. But based on the eye test (and I don't know if there's any stats to back this up - too lazy to look up), it seems that he's jacking up a lot more bad attempts late in the shot clock. This might be because he's handling the ball a lot more even though other teams faceguard and deny the guards. There seems to be at least one or two possessions a game where he's forced to make a play with 5 seconds left on the shot clock because he couldn't hand it off to a guard in time. That's not his game and he's going to miss most of those shots.

 

I've had this conversation with a couple of different people and it really seems to come down to this RE: eye test. CJ "LOOKS" like he cares. By that I mean, if he gets caught on a screen he's scrambling to get back, grabbing, clawing, chasing- anything he can do to recover. Couple that with CJ gambling a bit more and poking a few more steals away and VOILA?! you've got what looks to be solid defense, coupled with effort- what more could you want? Meanwhile, we've all seen Dame get hung on a screen and give the IDAF look and become a bystander the rest of the play. I HATE that, but I can almost understand it. That sounds weird I know, but I'll go more into that later. What I've seen in the past week against some of the most dynamic PGs in the league- and some of the best screen setters, Gasol & Randolph, Jordan, Bogut & Green, Adams & Kanter- Dame has been unbelievably good about not getting caught and not trailing/chasing the play from behind- but instead moving before the pick is there to 1) offset the effectiveness of the pick 2) attempt to draw an offensive foul (which he did 3 times in the course of 4 games- that makes a difference!)

Beyond that- the metrics have Dame improving in the PnR game every year- although his first 2 years were some of the worst defense I've ever seen from a All Star level guard. As for CJ- he has the skills necessary to be at least a net even defender. His issues stem from overextending on rotations, going under screens when he should go over, and getting caught up in off ball action and sealed on the backside of a play.

Does that make sense?

 

Good call. His length and wingspan compensate a bit for his height issues. And besides, what SGs in the league these days can actually post up anyway? His deficiencies due to size can easily be mitigated with a strong wing defender and rim protector. His issues rather come from gambling and confusion -- things that are easily correctable with more experience and accountability from the coach.

 

Plumlee's Usage rate is down nearly 2 points from last year- if anything one would expect his % to actually go up. He's shooting a 0.7 shots more per game in 5+ additional mins. One thing to consider here that isn't exactly in Plumlee's favor- he's currently Top 10 in FBP for guys 6'10" and taller. So he's getting points on the break unopposed on a fairly decent rate - (a full quarter of his PITP are from the FB!) -yet his fg% is suffering. (CHART)

I would be inclined to say that he's constantly matching up w/front line centers as opposed to the back ups around the league play an integral part in his efficiency falling. Which is why I lean towards him being a bench player beyond this season.

 

You know- you gave me something to look at a bit further. I've made a note to look at late clock situations to see who's getting the bulk of the "here- YOU shoot it!" looks... that can definitely skew some percentages if there's enough of them out there.

 

Dear Mr. Marang -

Your posts are outstanding and we are definitely glad to have you here!!! However, we've all heard the phrase lies, damn lies, and statistics. As an analyst you should know this better than anyone. We all want to see the analysis and statistics that say we're going to win the championship. Please do those next!

 

That is completely 100% true. Ellis and CJ's game are so different that imo they're not even comparable players. The big thing that stands out to me is Ellis is a Career 31% 3point shooter. With the offense Golden State runs that just wasn't going to cut it. Also especially early in his career Ellis needed the ball to be effective. I'd argue that's the biggest reason why the Warriors didn't believe Ellis was a good pairing with Curry more than the defensive issues Ellis had.
With CJ's ability to shoot the basketball at a 39% clip from deep so far, means he can play off the ball much easier than Ellis ever could.
I just don't believe Curry/Ellis and Lillard/CJ are comparable at all.