Blazers @ Chicago Game Thread (Merged)

Actually I believe when it all settles out that Portland will run a 3 guard rotation, with Roy, Rudy and Bayless splitting all the minutes.

 

That's fine with me. Ala Jordan, Harper, and Kerr?

 

The main problem with a Roy/Rudy backcourt is that neither would be a very good defensive option on the opposing point guard. Also, Rudy doesn't have the ball-handling skills to routinely bring the ball up the floor against pressure, while the team probably wouldn't want Roy to have to work to do that.

For periods of the game, it should probably work, but not as a full-time solution.

 

Rudy just doesn't have the speed to keep quicker point guards in front of him. As ABM pointed out in another thread, he tends to overplay one side, pushing the guy he's guarding toward help and then slapping at the ball from behind. It works pretty well against a lot of SG's, but against all the speedy small points in the league (Harris, Paul, Williams, Parker, Nash etc) it's just not going to work. Those guys will just dribble around help and get all kinds of penetration on us.

There are just so many quick, quality point guards in the league now, partially thanks to hand checking rule. The days when you could just take a bigger guy like Ron Harper and manhandle smaller point guards on defense are over. You just have to have a quick-footed guard who can stay in front of his opponent.

 

I just don't see it. Who guards Rashard Lewis? Turkoglu? LeBron James? Peja? There are some freakin' huge "small" forwards out there now. These guys are either 6'10 and can bomb away right over you, or they are line backers who will just overpower you. You have to have some size at SF or you just don't stand a chance against them.

You put Fernandez or Roy on LeBron for 40 minutes a night and the guy will put up career numbers every time. And "career numbers" for LeBron is terrifying.

 

You're right Mook, but it's not like Sergio or Blake are having that much luck staying in front of those guys either.

 

3 Guard Rotation. That implies 2 of them are in, while one is on the bench. It can be argued that some of the best Blazers guard rotations from the past were short(only a few players) and versatile. What do we have here? 3 versatile guards who can play any of the positions.

 

I think by three guard rotation, he meant Bayless, Roy and Fernandez rotating between the PG and SG positions....three players for two positions. Not that the Blazers would run a three guard lineup...putting them all on the floor together.

I also think the three guard rotation is a likely future.

PG: Bayless (30 MPG) / Fernandez (18 MPG)
SG: Roy (36 MPG) / Fernandez (12 MPG)

 

Sorry, I just realized you meant the three guys man the two guard positions. Which is ok. Except I think Rudy, Roy and Bayless are all going to be 35 mpg-level players. That's 105 minutes a night, but there are only 96 minutes available.

9 minutes of not maximizing our talent may not sound like a big deal, but when most NBA games are decided by 5 points or less, it can be. I'd rather plan on Roy and Bayless getting 35 mpg, with a serviceable backup like Blake getting the leftovers. Then find a 35 mpg SF who is as good or better than Rudy.

 

I think that's a waste of talent. If Bayless and Fernandez are as good as I think they'll be, those guys should be getting minutes similar to Roy's.

 

No need for apology. I wasn't "snapping"

If Roy and whoever is determined to be the other starter play 35 minutes each, that leaves 26 for the 3rd. 12 minutes per quarter. 4*12=48*2 guard positions=96 minutes. If Roy and the other starter play 35 minutes (which helps increase durability of players) it leaves 26 for the 3rd guard. Most players who get that many minutes, or higher, are usually happy.

When Drexler, Porter and Ainge were playing, I never heard any bitching about PT. They shared all the minutes. Of course Ainge was older, and probably didn't want huge minutes, which could have contributed.

 

Yeah, it's ugly. I'd say an inability to contain point guard penetration is probably our consistently biggest weakness, night in and out. (Except for Chicago. I wish we could play Chicago every night.)

Blake would've been a much better PG around 1990. He's got nice size and he could just manhandle smaller guards. He'd still be mediocre, but it'd be a higher level of mediocrity. Sadly, this just isn't his era. Too big, too slow.

I've given up on Sergio. I was once a believer, but the guy couldn't fucking stay in front of me on my walk to the mail box. He needs another summer in Nate's dog house, or a ticket out of town.

 

Yeah, neither Rudy, Roy or Fernandez strike me as the type to ever complain about PT. That doesn't worry me.

I just keep thinking back to Ray Allen and Michael Redd on those Bucks teams. In those two years, Ray Allen was a 21 ppg scorer who averaged 3.5 assists, and Redd was just a spot-minute 11 ppg guy.

Allen goes to Seattle and the very next season is averaging 24 ppg and 6 assists. That year Redd shoots to 15 ppg, and the year after 22 ppg. A few years later both are 26 ppg scorers, and widely viewed as two of the very best scorers in the league.

Now you could argue that the Bucks should've just stood pat. They had two all-star-quality shooting guards, and they could've made it work. But would it really have been smart? Would either guy be worth what they are today if they had? Very highly doubtful.

Sadly, the Bucks traded Allen for a washed up Gary Payton, and the rest is history. But the Bucks' mistake wasn't to trade Allen. They just traded him for the wrong piece. (Or, you could argue, they should've traded Redd.)

Similarly, at some point Fernandez and Roy are just going to retard each other's growth. Maybe we can win a championship in the meantime, maybe not. But I'd like to be realistic about it now and go after a long-term piece at SF where there isn't such an overlap of talent.

 

30 isn't similar enough to 36?

 

Selling merchandise, being a face of a franchise that people can identify with. With no other Blazer would you be able to sell those "I Heart Rudy" shirts and sell out in one day like Joe's did before Christmas.
I bet most of the signs at the RG every night have to do with Rudy as well. The guy is an attraction every night he's out there, fans yell his name the second he gets off the bench.

I know that doesn't have much to do with our on-the-court play, but the business that the team attracts because of Rudy is big-time.

 

30 isn't that far off 36. It's borderline starter minutes. That is more the minutes distribution I'd expect when the team must win, like in playoff games. In the regular season, Roy could drop a few minutes and Bayless and Fernandez could pick up a couple. Keeping them all rested through the season.

 

Nope.

Leave out Ginobili for a minute. Then take a mental snapshot of all the NBA players under 33 (so we exclude creaky vets trying to string out their career) who are getting 30 mpg or so. Here's the actual list:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...earsExp=-1&splitDD=All Teams&pager.offset=100

Now take another mental snapshot of guys averaging 36 mpg or more. Here's the list:
http://www.nba.com/statistics/playe...&yearsExp=-1&splitDD=All Teams&pager.offset=0

Two different caliber of players, aren't they? One is a group of generally decent role players. The other group are your rock-solid starters, guys who are always bandied about in the "Top 15 Players at X Position" lists, potential All-Stars, and former All-Stars with a lot left in the tank.

(Ginobili is the weird exception to this rule. People like to say he's such an uber talent with no ego to accept such a role. Truth is that he's just not as good when you get him 35 mpg. I don't know why, but it just seems so.)

Now which group do you see Bayless in? Fernandez?

Myself, I see them in the 35-36 mpg group.

 

I think Roy and Rudy can co-exist. They are a lot more versatile than Redd/Allen are. And I don't think Rudy at all is stunting Roy's growth. And I don't see Rudy being a starting-caliber SG for a championship team, and handling more than 100 games a season.

Sure, Rudy might not reach his FULL potential by scoring 17-20 ppg or whatever, but I assume he'd rather play on a good team where he's getting enough minutes at around 30 per game rather than putting up big numbers on a losing team.

I agree though we should look into a long-term piece at SF, unless we feel Nicolas is the answer there?

 

Bayless - 30 minutes a game
Fernandez - 30 minutes a game
Roy - 36 minutes a game

Really, the only risk is Rudy. He thinks he's a 36 minute a game guy. He'll probably be gone when his contract is up. I personally don't put him in any long-term plans.

 

I dunno. Kirk's rated out as a very good starter for most of his career, and played significant roles on pretty good teams, and he's been a better defender most of his career. He's a coach's son and seems beloved by most everyone as a team guy.

Blake rates out as a borderline to ok starter over the last couple years. And less than that before. While not really playing big roles on very good teams.

I put quite a bit of weight on that.