I am not sure why you are saying it when we have numbers that prove it wrong. In the playoffs, the starting lineup played 112 minutes together, during these 112 minutes the stats look as follows: Def-RTG: 103.1 (That's elite defense, better than their 370 minutes together in the regular season). Off-RTG: 124.8 (That's elite offense, almost by 6 points over their regular season) Net-RTG: 21.7 (That's bonkers, they were clobbering Denver with that line-up). The Blazers defense failed in just about any other combination. If you look at this series, there were only 2 5-unit lineups that had more than 20 minutes through the entire series - and both of them had fantastic results (The other one is replacing Nurkic with Melo which was actually even smaller). All other combinations played very little together because they were so bad. But, size was not the issue for the Blazers defensively. It was the large amount of bad defenders on the roster. Last year, the Blazers had 4+ defenders on the roster (Nurk, Roco, Powell, DJJ). DJJ's offense was so bad that his defensive plus was neutralized. Norm or Norm's size was not a problem for the Blazers when he had other good defenders next to him - he is a better defender than you give him credit for and while I am sure there are times his size is a problem - it is nowhere near the problem you believe it is. Even that Dame, CJ, Powell, Melo Roco lineup was not horrible defensively (it was not great, but it was not horrible) against Denver. That lineup was actually mind boggling good on offense so it's 109.8 rating on defense was fine. If you look through the entire playoffs across the league. If you do a 5 units with a positive net-rating that played at least 100 minutes, this lineup was 3rd best defensively in the league. https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/a...DEF_RATING&dir=-1&CF=NET_RATING*G*0:MIN*G*100
Those numbers are skewed but that's OK. I hope you're right. When our starting lineup played against theirs we were not a +21 net rating. That's not how it went down. Their rotation was different than ours and they were playing pretty small at times as well. They still managed to beat us despite not having three of what would have been nine of their rotation players. It's all bad though because we lost the series and I don't need stats to tell me what I saw. MPJ could get a shot off over Norm whenever he wanted... he also backed Norm down and MPJ isn't even a strong SF. So, let's hope it's not a problem this upcoming season but size is a pretty easy thing to game plan for and expose.
The numbers are raw, there is nothing skewed about them. You could argue that the blazers starters were decimated by the nuggets starters but somehow played enough minutes against scrubs to get this amazing defensive rating. All I will say is that I find it very unlikely. The sample size, regular season and playoffs is large enough to suggest that it very unlikely that the blazers really have a defensive issue with this lineup. I am not saying there no specific matchups that will give it problems, but generally, the numbers give me confidence that the argument you presented is meritless
There isn't one defender i've seen keep Dame from shooting a quality shot. Players are too good. You can only try to alter the shot, or force a pass. Or get a double team to help like CP3 always did.
My guess is top 10 but I'm not settled on that until we've played 20 games and I can judge the team with enough of an example
The more I think about it, the less concerned I am with the "OuR sF iS oNlY sIx FoUr!!" hysteria. For the most part, we know Norm can hold his own against most NBA SFs. In those rare circumstances when the opponent's size is just too much, we have to trust Chauncey to utilize all the 6'7" dudes on the roster (RoCo, Nance, Snell, Nas if he's grown like the pics suggested) at the forward spots, and shift Simons out of the rotation for that game so Norm/CJ can get all their minutes at 1/2. If our coaching change was worthwhile, I think we should be OK with Norm being our primary SF.
I totally agree, however... I wish we had a CJ-level ("borderline all-star") at the PF - then we'd be more balanced, as we'd already have an awesome Dame/Powell backcourt.
Here's a quick breakdown because the rankings can be a bit misleading. Last year, there was not THAT much difference between the teams for defensive rating. This is not a wide distribution here. If we were to improve by about 5 points per 100 possessions, we'd go from being the 29th ranked defense to the 7th ranked defense. And all it would take is... in the entire game, commit one less shooting foul and force one more miss from 3. For example, NY climbed from being ranked 22nd to 3rd in one summer the year prior, largely with the same roster (+ Thibs and some vets). And it was with allowing 5 fewer points per 100 possessions like I'm hoping we can do. Yet this relatively minor change in the numbers resulted in a massive cultural change among how the league views NY. It shouldn't be that hard for us to climb into the top 10. A minor dip in the offense should be expected with an increased defensive focus, but being in the top 10 on both ends of the floor is the first step to contention. It should automatically result in 50-55 wins in the regular season.
