Blazers need 3 point scoring

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by swish3, Oct 24, 2018.

  1. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    Lookie what I just found - the current NBA leaders in 3FG% from basketball-reference:

    upload_2018-11-21_9-59-28.png

    Two Currys and two Blazers in the top 4. Not bad at all.

    Any hatred Meyers 7.0 is receiving is purely irrational. I get that is stems from Meyers 1.0 - 6.0, but this year's Meyers is actually earning his paycheck. Here's how he's producing compared to some off the other back up big men who got PAID in the summer of 2016:

    upload_2018-11-21_10-19-7.png
    upload_2018-11-21_10-20-4.png

    Notes:
    1) I did not include players who are actually injured (i.e. Joakim Noah)
    2) I did include Timofey Mozgov's 2017-18 stats. He's not actually injured. He just sucks so bad, he's 4th on the depth chart of a .500 team and hasn't played a minute all season.

    Meyers is outplaying them all. He leads the field in PTS/G and REB/G, as well as PTS/36 and REB/36. He also leads the others in ORtg and DRtg. In advanced stats, he leads the others in TS%, TRB%, WS/48, VORP and is lapping the field in BPM. He's clearly having the best season of the bunch. The others are all as old, or older, and have been in the league as long, or longer. The only one who is statistically close is Miles Plumlee, and he's playing fewer minutes on a last place team with a 3-14 record. In fact, Meyers is the only one playing on an above .500 team. He's actually playing solid back up minutes on the first place team in his conference.

    And then there is salary. All of these guys are making more money than Meyers. Like Meyers, all were signed to 4-year contracts during the summer of 2016.

    Biyombo:
    upload_2018-11-21_10-30-39.png
    upload_2018-11-21_10-31-17.png

    Mozgov:
    upload_2018-11-21_10-33-3.png
    upload_2018-11-21_10-33-30.png

    Mahinmi:
    upload_2018-11-21_10-34-49.png

    Plumlee:
    upload_2018-11-21_10-35-59.png
    upload_2018-11-21_10-36-28.png

    Meyers:
    upload_2018-11-21_10-37-36.png

    BNM
     
  2. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

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    I propose we name the 4-pointer the antoine4 in honor of the legendary (in his own mind) Antoine Walker:

    Behold: The 4-pointer. Maybe the greatest basketball quote of all time comes, of course, from Antoine Walker. He was once asked why he shot so many 3s, and he responded "because there are no 4s."

    BNM
     
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  3. tlongII

    tlongII Yes I am smarter than you

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    I hear ya. He's doing good. Keep it up!
     
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  4. Shaboid

    Shaboid Well-Known Member

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    The fact that BNM is giving praise to the swish3 and it's powers to getting victories, makes my heart content.
     
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  5. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    Based on the fact that Meyers is now 52/52/100 and recognized in Basketball-reference as the 2nd highest percentage swish3 scorer in the league, I would like to see his min increased to 24 and his priority for Blazer scoring increased. With the more effective movement that he is showing on offense and defense, feeding him at sweet spot for open swish3s and on runs to the hoop for dunk2s and drawn fouls that can give add1s makes sense. There is no reason I see that Meyers should not increase his game scoring average to 16-20, and if he can grow through the 15 point per game point to approach 30 points. Now that his PER is over 20 and his scoring is at the top of the league, his role as backup center can make Nurk more effective by allowing him to play his sweet spot 24 min per game.

    At the 8 min mark in the first quarter, when Meyers has been most effective (>80% swish3 shooting), I would play Meyers to allow for the next 8 playing min to allow 4-6 swish3 attempts. And again at the last 4 min of the 3rd quarter for 8 min to allow another group of 4-6 swish3s. At his current scoring pace, this would rack up 12 to 18 swish3 points that will make the difference in getting to the 130 points that will likely be needed to beat the Bucks and the Warriors. This is a remarkable opportunity for the Blazers. Let's not miss the chance to have 14 wins in 19 games (73.7%)!
     
  6. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers loss to the Bucks Nov 21 was a hard loss, beat 143 to 100 and falling out of the WC lead. This was a down game that obviously lacked defensive intensity and effectiveness. Despite a poor start, the coaches did not respond soon enough to get back on course when fresh energy and determined defense was needed. Despite some help with the return of Mo, the Blazers gave up 143 points, a lot of them to layups which were particularly poorly defended.

    The Blazers lost the swish3 game scoring only 9 of 42 against the Bucks 14 of 45, a 15 point deficit. This was a bad night for Chief who was 0 of 9. CJ was 2 of 4, Zach was 2 of 2, Meyers was 2 of 3, Dame and Nik were each 1 of 6, and Wade was 1 of 1. The all miss list was Chief 0 of 9, Mo 0 of 4, Jake and Evan each 0 of 2, and Nurk, Simons, and Caleb 0 of 1. Simons and Caleb should be instructed not to attempt swish3s, and "the stop attempting swish3s after 3 consecutive misses" standard should be observed. Meyers, Evan, and Mo had the smallest negative +/- values.

    The Blazers probably need 15+ swish3s to win games like this one, and should be counting on the men with the hottest hand. The note above that I posted before the game was just what did not happen, but could have given the Blazers a chance to at least stay within 10 points. The Bucks were hot, shooting 54% FG for the game given the weak Blazer defense, but there should have been at least 120 points scored if there had been assists, plays to promote swish3 shooting, and selecting the hot hands to shoot. Starters were an awful 3 of 22 and the bench (even including Simons and Caleb) were 6 of 20. Given the scoring that Meyers achieved early in the game, I would not have substituted Caleb for him and was negatively impressed with the result. To beat the Warriors, the Blazers should return to relying on the bench and emphasizing hot hand shooting and active defense.
     
  7. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    It is time to review who should be shooting swish3s and who should not attempt swish3s. Gary, Meyers, and Seth are the leading players, although Gary only has 2 of 3. In contrast, Simons, Evan, and Nurk are the worst. Simons is 0 of 5, Evan is 4 of 24, and Nurk is 2 of 18. These % below 20 should translate into not taking more attempts.

    The criterion to qualify for attempting 3 point shots should be having made at least 6 of the first 17 attempts (35.3 %), and for players who fail this cutoff, there should be no more swish3 attempts. Instead, the scoring opportunities should be saved for the high % shooters. If the Blazers stop squandering shooting chances, and feed the hot hands, swish3 scoring each game and consequent wins will increase.

    To focus swish3 scoring productivity, I propose that the Blazers embellish the half-court scheme by adding plays to feed the swish3 hot hand by quick passes from drives into the lane as kick outs to sweet spots on the arc with the shooter popping to the spot just in time to take the shot. The sequence that I visualize begins with a screen that frees the first Blazer to drive to the paint, the kick out pass, 1-3 arc perimeter passes, optionally another drive to the paint, and the assist pass or passes for the payoff swish3.

    This swish3 play should be run mixed with existing offense schemes at least 6 times each quarter, adding 9+ points. Maximizing swish3 scoring can lead to a Championship.
     
  8. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers lost the swish3 game to the Warriors in a second embarrassing game. Blazers were 9 of 24 (only 27 of the target 45 points) versus the Warriors 17 of 32. This 24 point swish3 deficit accounts for most of the 28 point losing margin. The Blazers were out-rebounded 42 to 40 and out-blocked 11 to 2, and made only 54.5% of FT. The Blazers had only 22 assists compared to 29 for the Warriors. There were only 19 points from the bench compared with 37 from the Warriors.

    Dame led swish3 scoring with 3 of 7, CJ was 3 of 8, Chief was 2 of 4, and Nik was 1 of 1. Jake, Zach, Mo, and Seth were each 0 of 1. The Warriors were on a roll as Kevin Durant, who up to this point was 31.5% for swish3s, scored 2 of 5, Klay (a 32.4% swish3 shooter) was 4 of 9, Quinn Cook was 5 of 8, and Iguodala was 2 of 2. Even bench players Lee and Jerebko were each 2 of 4. Some of these were contested, but too many of them, especially in the 2nd quarter, were not well guarded.

    With 8 more swish3s and 5 more FT scored, the Blazers could have won this game. Let's count on the coaches analyzing the last 2 games to better recognize what is happening, make better substitutions, and return the active energy play that was successful in previous games to move us back to a conference leading winning percentage.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2018
  9. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers were better than the Clippers Nov 25 scoring 24 points on 8 of 38 while the Clips were 5 of 25, but lost the game 104 to 100 with the Clips getting 23 from FT versus the Blazers 8. There is no justifying that FT advantage except for the ref bias that Doc Rivers seems to have on the Blazers home court. This imbalance needs to stop.

    The Blazers won the first half playing well, including active defense and multiple input scoring. But in the 3rd quarter the Clippers went on a run as the Blazers turned cold and the 3rd quarter was a 38 to 16 embarrassment won by the Clippers. Nurk was out for the 2nd half with an injury and that abrupt shift in offense disrupted both defense and offense. The choice of swish3 shot attempts did not follow the principles of focused shooting by the hot hands or stopping attempts after 3 consecutive misses.

    Dame was 3 of 13, CJ and Meyers were 2 of 4, and Seth was 1 of 4. Missing all shots were Chief 0 of 5, Evan 0 of 3, Mo 0 of 2, and Nurk, Nik, and Zach each 0 of 1. Because of the low % for the season, Evan, Nurk, and maybe even Zach need to stop attempting swish3s. Instead of these squandered shots, assign the attempts to the high % shooters. If the 3 swish3 attempts taken by Evan had been shot instead by Meyers, this game could have been a win, even in spite of the biased reffing and bad bounces.

    What is needed is a plan in which the highest % shooters are taking the shots, and prioritization of getting assist passes to them instead of desperation shots or shots too early in the 24 sec clock. The Blazers need to emphasize the game that has multiple passes on the arc that allow receiving just in time assists at the sweet spots allowing the 40%+ swish3 shooting (or 50-70% in the case of Meyers) that will result in the 15 made swish3s needed to win.
     
  10. Fez Von Savage

    Fez Von Savage スーパーバッド Zero Cool

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    Like career 40% 3pt shooter Otto Porter?

    Yip.
     
  11. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    One note that I left out of my observations on the Nov 25 Clippers game is that the 8 of 38 shooting is a disappointing 21%!
    Even shooting team average 35% swish3s would have given 13 of 38 for 15 additional points and the win.
    Selection of who attempted the swish3s can be considered the reason for loss of this game that the Blazers should have won.
     
  12. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    Excellent! The Blazers won the swish3 contest by 15 points scoring 19 of 39 over the Magic who scored 14 of 30. This was a record game for Dame who scored 10 of 15 swish3s and for Nik who scored 5 of 8. Nurk scored 1 of 1, Meyers and Zach each scored 1 of 3, CJ was 1 of 5, Chief was 0 for 2, and Mo and Seth were each 0 for 1.

    This was a much better game from the viewpoint of scoring more swish3s and selecting the hot hands, which Dame (66.7%) and Nik (62.5%) had, and this will help the average of Dame that had been slipping. Dame moves from a season average of 33.5% to 36.5% and Nik moves from 38.1% to 40.8% with this one game. The Blazers won the rebound contest 47 to 37. The Blazers made major progress by emphasizing the swish3 and hot hand shooting!

    The win is in spite of poor foul shooting at only 68.8% (22 of 32) while the Magic shot 93.3% (14 of 15). At the end of the game, Evan missed 4 FT in a row and CJ missed 2 that were surprising as for the season Evan is 70% and CJ is 83.3% and this misses put the game in jeopardy. The Magic never gave up, and kept the contest too close for comfort.

    In my view, there were serious officiating faults in this game and the Blazers did not have high quality handling on the home court that should be demanded. There were again fouls not called when there were hard hits and shot disturbances to Dame, CJ, Nurk, Mo, Chief, Nik, Zach, Meyers, Seth, and Evan. The smash to the head that Meyers took on his drive to the basket for which no foul was called appeared to be a flagrant foul. Fouls called on Nurk at the end of the half and in the 4th quarter and on Meyers and 1 on Zach were phantoms. And that layup by Simons at the end of the half was clearly traveling as he took 3 giant steps. That should have been no basket! And the debacle of not managing the clock at the end of the game that threatened to give the chance to score back to the Magic was not worthy of professional sports. The Blazers don't have the home court advantage, or even level playing field. Let's hope to see this changed for the next and all following games.
     
  13. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    Against the Nuggets Nov 30, the Blazers lost the contest by 24 points and the game by 1 point. This was a pathetic swish3 scoring game for the Blazers, who were only 6 of 22 (27%!) that was significantly inferior to the Nuggets 14 of 30 (which is the same swish3 shooting numbers that the Magic had 2 nights ago). The Nuggets were hot in the first half, and scored a whooping 68 points in the first half against the Blazers 53. In the situation where Dame and CJ were not scoring swish3s, the Blazers failed to use top of the NBA talent Meyers to answer the 3 point scoring raining in from the Nuggets and trailed by 15-19 points. This is a game that the Blazers should have won.

    It is obvious by the fact that the Blazers most accurate swish3 shooter attempted only 2 swish3 shots in the entire game that there was no game plan to feed shot opportunities to Meyers. I counted at least 6 times when he was open at the arc, but he was neglected by Dame, CJ, Evan, and others when they instead tried shots which defenders blocked. They did not seem to even look to see the open man at a scoring sweet spot. If Meyers had taken the 6 swish3 attempts that should have been in the game plan, the Blazers would have probably had 6 more points and the win.

    Swish3 scoring was by Dame 3 of 8, Chief 2 of 4, and Meyers 1 of 2. Swish3 misses were by CJ 4, and Nurk, Nik, Zach, and Mo each missed 1. The swish3 attempts should be concentrated by game plan design to be made by the leading swish3 % shooters, and the aim should be to score 15+ swish3s, which correlates with higher winning %, and to avoid less than 12 which correlates with losses. If the backcourt and the arc passing rim would be looking for the shots in the scenario of good off ball movement and crisp passing, the shots are there.

    Meyers did score 11 points with 3 of 5 2-point shots made, 2 of 3 FT, 4 rebounds, a block, and 3 assists. He played good defense accounting for challenges that resulted in missed shots from Milsap, Harris, Jokic, Plumlee, and several Nuggets. I thought he contributed importantly to the comeback that erased the deficit. CJ led Blazer scoring with 33 points and Chief had 20 points in this game. CJ, Chief, and Meyers deserve credit for keeping the Blazers in it.

    A few highly surprising elements of this game were the lack of calling a balanced game by the refs, who did not award Dame any foul shots when I saw him obviously fouled at least 8 times. And consistency would have meant that CJ, Nurk, Chief, Mo, Meyers, Zach, and Nik could have been awarded free throws. The combination of failing to utilize swish3 scoring power and some missed ref calls would have most likely have translated into a win.

    Some big disappointments in missed FT by Evan, who also committed multiple ugly turnovers, and lapses in the defense, also were factors that left the door open for the Nuggets to score a lot of points in the 1st half and to stay in front or tied at the end. The Nuggets are a talented team that played well and had 28 assists (compared to the Blazers 19), but were beatable.

    The upcoming Texas trip will provide chances for the Blazers to optimize scoring by 15+ swish3 scoring and consistent determined defense, and that is what I expect to see.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2018
  14. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    The Spurs game Dec 2 was a study of having a winning strategy, but then turning away from success, lack of adequate defense, and exceptionally high percentage shooting by the Spurs (60% FG, 73.3% FT3, 91%FT). Although the Blazers 12 of 29 won the swish3 contest, the Spurs 11 of 15 was far beyond their average 37.9% season average, and coupled with 39 of 68 FG2s vs the Blazers 33 of 57 FG2s. There was not enough swish3 shooting by the Blazers best shooters or enough defense.

    In the 1st Q, and again in the 3rd Q, the Blazers took the lead. Swish3s by Dame 2 and Chief in the 1st, by Mo 2 in the 2nd, and by Chief 3, Nik, and CJ in the 3rd, and Dame and CJ in the 4th comprised the scores, but those 2 in the 4th Q took 7 shots. Gay (2 of 2), White (1 of 1), and Patty Mills (1 of 1) combined scored 4 of 4 during that 4th Q. The Blazers needed 50%+ swish3 shooting.

    Chief led Blazer swish3 scoring with 4 of 5 (but no attempts in the 4th Q), Dame scored 3 of 11, Mo scored 2 of 2, CJ scored 2 of 6, Nik scored 1 of 3, and Zach was 0 of 2. There were no swish3 attempts in the game (and only 1 FG shot) by Meyers, the Blazers only 50%+ swish3 shooter.

    This was a much better game for Mo, who made both of his 2 swish3 shots, and for Chief who made 4 of 5 of his, but why were there no swish3 attempts by either Mo or Chief in the 4th quarter, and why were there no swish3 attempts by Meyers? These seem to be valid criticisms of the coaches who we count on to bring out the best in offense and defense in Blazer players. Without a defensive strategy to hold opponent swish3 shooting down to <40% and selection of Blazer swish3 shooting to achieve scoring 15, probability of 50+ wins is low. Let's look for maximizing strengths in future games that should include shooting from the arc by Blazers with the hot hand throughout the game, especially in the last half of the 2nd and 4th Q. Wins will be possible!
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2018
  15. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers lost the Dec 4 MAV swish3 game shooting a pathetic 7 of 24 (29%!) versus the MAVs 11 of 30 and this 12 point deficit was greater than the margin of loss 111 to 102. This game was a foolish failure by Blazer coaches to call on Meyers as one of 2 leading swish3 % shooters in the NBA to contribute to the Blazer offense. There was not even the off the ball rotation assignment or looks for passes at the arc that indicate the game plan included shooting by Meyers. This strategic squandering of the Texas games needs to be addressed by insistent questioning of the game plan.

    In the MAVs game, lack of defense again allowed higher than average scoring by an opponent, and the Cuban officiating contributed to the 1st Q 17 to 3 run from which the Blazers did not recover. Fouls called on Meyers, Dame, Nurk, and Mo and the no calls against them were a significant factor. Nurk fouled out. Dame and CJ each had 5 PF. A technical foul on Mo and Chief each further shows the reffing adversity. The coaches need to be calling for consistent officiating in all games.

    Dame was 2 of 8, CJ was 2 of 7, Chief, Mo, and Seth were 1 of 2, and Nik was 0 of 3.

    In several seasons, Meyers scored 3-5 swish3s in 28 games. There are 2 games with 5 and 7 games with 4 swish3s, and in those games he has made 24 and 23 PPG (and several 15-18 PPG) contributions. These productive scoring additions are what is needed to add to the total score, open the floor, open shots for Dame, CJ, and other teammates, and produce wins. It is time to recognize Meyers as the leading swish3 % shooter to optimize the scoring potential on the Blazers.

    Let's look for a better game plan that maximizes player talents for future games.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
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  16. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    Mrs. Leonard I admire your effort. Something I havent always admired from your husband. However I’ll give him credit. He’s a lot better this year than he has been.
     
  17. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    The Blazers won the swish3 contest scoring 9 of 27 compared to the Suns 5 of 27 on Dec 6. This was a game started and orchestrated by Dame and well aided by Jake, each of whom were 3 of 5. Chief and Meyers were each 1 of 2, and Seth was 1 of 3. Missed attempts were by Nurk, Evan, Zach, and Wade, who were each 0 of 1, Gary 0 of 2, and Nik 0 of 4. The coaches should state that Nurk, Evan, and Wade should not attempt swish3s based on low season %.

    This was a great game for Jake, with a nice return that included 24 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 steals. Dame and Chief had good games, with +/- of 31 and 30. Zach had 10 points with 4 of 6 FG with 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block, and only 2 PF. Mo had 6 points on 3 of 3 FG with 1 rebound and 2 steals.

    The Blazers played strong determined defense that held the Suns to 9 points in the 1st Q and 18 points in the 3rd Q. The substitutions allowed for more min of the game to accomplish tenacious defense and facilitated dominant Blazer scoring. The is the formula to carry forward. Let's look forward to this level of play Saturday against MIN and for upcoming challenging games.
     
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  18. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    The dunk2 was clicking tonight as well except that..Meyers clanked a couple of possible dunk2s tonight.
     
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  19. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

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    There's no doubt in my mind Meyers is vastly improved this season...I no longer hold my breath when he's in the game...his rebounding and passing has been solid as well as his offensive production....he's still a bit butterfingered in traffic at times but hey...much better player all around.
     
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  20. swish3

    swish3 Well-Known Member

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    But the Blazers won! This was a great night for Dame and Jake. Let's expect to see them keep it going!
     
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