Blazers Roster / Salary Cap 2018-19

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by 42N8Bounce, Oct 4, 2017.

  1. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce 0.9

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    With 14 of the 15 roster spots accounted for this season, it's about time we look ahead to see how next year's roster might fit together.

    Being over the tax level this year, and most likely next year, the Blazers will only have a few options:
    - Match our restricted FAs
    - Bird rights to re-sign unrestricted FAs
    - Use our mid-level exception ('mini'-mid level if we're $6M over Tax level/Apron ~$5,291,918)
    x Use bi-annual exception (not available if we're $6M over Tax level/Apron)
    - add players on the rookie scale
    - sign min-salary players.
    - $12.9M player trade exception from Crabbe trade (cannot be used to sign players).

    Here's a look at our 2018-19 Salaries:

    Guaranteed:
    Dame, $27,977,689
    CJ, $25,759,766
    Turner, $17,868,852
    Harkless, $10,837,079
    Leonard, $10,595,506
    Aminu, $6,957,105
    Collins, $3,628,920
    Swanigan, $1,740,000
    Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005
    Ezeli (stretched), $333,333
    Nicholson (stretched), $2,844,430

    Total Guaranteed: $110,526,685
    (estimated CAP=$101,000,000)

    Qualifying Offers (restricted Free Agents):
    Vonleh, $4,749,591
    Nurk, $4,140,964 (max salary approximately $23,673,679)
    Napier, $3,452,308
    Connaughton, $1,839,228
    Briscoe, $1,551,118 (contingent on making the 2017-18 roster)

    Non-Guaranteed:
    Layman, $1,544,951

    Free-Agents (unrestricted):
    Davis (Blazers hold Bird rights - can go over the CAP to re-sign up to player max salary.)
    Morrow (If he makes the roster in 2017-18, Blazers will hold his Non-Bird exception allowing them to re-sign him up to 120% of his previous salary).
    Goodwin (If he makes the roster in 2017-18, Blazers will hold his Non-Bird exception allowing them to re-sign him up to 120% of his previous salary).

    8 spots are guaranteed + 1 additional spot is a lock - Nurk. That leave 6 roster spots open. One will probably be used on our First round draft choice (Blazers currently do not have a 2nd round 2018 draft choice.).

    How will the 5 remaining roster spots be filled? Resign Davis? Offer QO to Vonleh? Will Nurk get the max? Keep in mind that if Nurk get the max, the Blazers will be approximately $42M over the CAP (filling out the roster with minimum salaries), and $21M over the Luxury tax level, resulting in a tax bill of approximately $50M. Wow! That would be unheard of. Will Paul Allen be willing to pay that bill to keep this core together?
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2017
    GriLtCheeZ, dviss1, Strenuus and 4 others like this.
  2. HCP

    HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    Great work on this man. I get so lost when it comes to all this. You should meet Joe Cronin.
     
  3. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Hard to predict the future when the GM is constantly looking for a consolidation trade.
    Here's my take:

    Core (won't be moved):
    Big 3, Collins, Swanigan

    Main Guys (will be moved in right deal):
    Harkless
    Aminu
    Napier

    Secondary Guys (Would be happy to move):
    Turner
    Vonleh
    Davis

    Throwins:
    Pat C.
    Layman

    Others (would be thrilled to move):
    Leonard

    If they can't make a trade...
    Lowball Davis, QO Vonleh, Sign Nurk for $20 mil.

    You didn't mention using our exception from the Crabbe trade, which will be around for a while.
     
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  4. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce 0.9

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    Great point. The Blazers have that $12.9M trade exception that can be used to bring in salary without sending out salary. It's good for up to a year. I'll edit the main post to include that exception.
     
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  5. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    I know this might not be the sexiest of topics but I’ve been trying to find a way to either A. Get rid of enough salary to be able to sign a difference making SF or B. Use some of the players on our roster to trade for a difference making SF and I just don’t see how it could be done before the 2020 season without sending out a shit ton of first rd picks and losing almost all of our depth.

    What’s the answer here? This team is good as constructed but still probably AT LEAST one proven player at the 3 away from true contention, even with a promising Collins and Swanigan.

    Do we have to hope we can get lucky and/or move up in the draft? Does moving ET, Meyers, and Aminu clear enough space to be able to make a real offer to, say, KCP or Covington? Would that even be worth it? I’m finding it hard to see a way to obtain that missing piece given our salary situation going forward and the pieces we have to use in trades.
     
  6. BonesJones

    BonesJones Advocate for Rookie Rights

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    The answer is Jae Crowder (If Lebron leaves, maybe even if he stays).
     
  7. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    I like Crowder, but you’re saying that a starting 5 of Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk is a contender?
     
  8. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Probably. How would you compare
    Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk
    to
    Porter, Drexler, Kersey, Buck, Duck?
     
  9. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    I would take that Drexler led Blazer team 10 out of 10 times.
     
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  10. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Can you break down why you think so positionally?
     
  11. BrunoSOC

    BrunoSOC Ripcity from Brazil

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    leonard will not make the roster for 18-19
     
  12. BonesJones

    BonesJones Advocate for Rookie Rights

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    If our frontcourt fulfills its vast potential and we have the right bench, we could contend for a 2 seed.
     
  13. AFully22

    AFully22 Well-Known Member

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    Drexler was a top 5 player in the league and the rest of the roster was a much better fit around him then what we have with a Dame and C.J. led team. Just my opinion though.

    I see Crowder as a great 5th piece to a team with 4 legit all star level talents, not the 4th piece to a team with 2.5 all star level talents.
     
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  14. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce 0.9

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    Unfortunately, at least at this point, Leonard is signed thru the 2019-20 season.

    What does Stotts think about that?
    StottsInterview.jpg
     
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  15. Charcoal Filtered

    Charcoal Filtered Writing Team

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    Hard to speculate that far out since you never know which GM covets the players we have. Also do not know PA's willingness to pay the tax on a mediocre team. Only thing I see that is almost assured is that Vonleh will not be here. With Swanigan in the mix, we cannot afford to give him much. Napier has been ok as a third PG but do not see us paying much for that roster spot. Also doubt project Pat lasts the rest of the year.
     
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  16. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I'm not sure how the cap holds figure into the LT calculations.

    I think the salary data here are reputable:

    https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/por/

    upload_2017-10-31_7-38-21.png

    We've been going under the assumption we're just ~$3.5M over the Tax, but Yahoo! says we're $21M over.
     
  17. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce 0.9

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    By my current calculations (2017/18) -
    Dame, $26,153,057
    CJ, $23,962,573
    Turner, $17,131,148
    Harkless, $10,162,922
    Leonard, $9,904,494
    Aminu, $7,319,035
    Collins, $3057,240
    Swanigan, $1,465,920
    Davis, $6,352,531
    Vonleh, $3,505,233
    Nurk, $2,947,305
    Napier, $3,361,360
    Pat, $1,471,382
    Layman, $1,312,611
    Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005
    Ezeli (stretched), $333,333
    Nichols (stretched), $2,844,430

    Total = $122,268,579

    CAP = $99,093,000 (The Blazers are approximately $23,175,579 over the CAP.)
    Tax Level = $119,266,000 (The Blazers are approximately $3,002,579 over the Tax Level.)
     
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  18. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce 0.9

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    To answer your question about how cap holds figure in (they don't):

     
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  19. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    FWIW, I think the Yahoo! salary data is from Woj.
     
  20. Mediocre Man

    Mediocre Man Mr. SportsTwo

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    2018 will be average team, early playoff departure, all over again
     

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