Ok so you should have set those perimeters from the beginning so we knew that we had to frame it in the way you wanted. I didn't see you do this. If you did and I just missed it then I apologize.
Well guess what has a 100% likelihood of not producing a productive player? Not having a draft pick at all. I'll take 20-30% over 0% every single time.
I feel like we've been having this argument again and again, but if you look around the league, the draft is the best, and in some cases the only way, to get a top 5 talent. Go down the All-Star rosters last season. Eastern team: With their original team - 7 With a different team - 6 Western team: With their original team - 12 With a different team - 3 Overall: With their original team - 19 With a different team - 9 If you put together your top 5 players who would they be? Curry Westbrook LeBron Durant Harden? Out of those, four are with their original team that drafted them. Obviously LeBron left and came back, but he got the Cavs to the finals during his initial run and he did return so I'm going to count it because technically it's true.
Because Portland, until a couple games ago, was just a couple games out of the #4/5 spot. That historically has a solid chance of moving into the Top-3. When Portland had the worst record, 3 teams jumped in front of them. When Portland got the #1 pick, they started at #4 and Seattle jumped to #2 from #5....it happens quite often. But the odds are much more in your favor at #4/5/6 than at #10 where Portland currently is. That RARELY happens. So a lot of difference can be shown between a team that wins say 28-30 wins and has a legit shot at an impact player and a team in the late lottery that is stuck in purgatory. Of course there are exceptions every year but when it's just a few meaningless wins, take all the help you can get. Being in the Playoff discussion a couple games ago when Portland was 15-24 or even now at 17-24 is a bit embarrassing and speaks more to how much the West has declined than how Portland is over achieving or anywhere close to a legit playoff team. Now if we were 21-21 and fighting for the #7/8 spot like what would have been the case in years past, it's a different discussion. Not only would the record have been better but those wins would have come against more quality teams. Portland is getting some wins against teams that have significantly fallen this year. The Blazers have 4 Total Wins against teams over .500 and those are all at home. 4 wins in 41 games against teams over the .500. How this team doesn't need more impact players is beyond me and getting them via FA'cy just doesn't work....and it's not likely we are trading what we have for something better. That also doesn't bode well for a meaningful playoff experience other than a drubbing if they do make the playoffs. I'm all for playoff experience but it doesn't do much good if there is little to no competition. A tough playoff series loss can be helpful but getting drubbed by Memphis or SA like in the last two seasons does little to help growth...and certainly not as much as adding more talent would.
I get it. But you had been kinda quiet lately so I was worried that maybe your faith was wavering. I gladly stand corrected......and shoulda known better. And the next time we do the suite thing, we need you to be there. It's a boatload of positive energy. I'll even pay for the babysitter if that helps.....
Well, as I've said before, I don't see it as an all or nothing equation. To me it's A) lottery pick this year (likely 6-10 range), no pick next year; B) Trade deadline deal for a solid vet this year, draft pick next year (likely 15-20 range). Barring some ping pong ball magic, I'm not sure that there's a significant difference between the two as far as making the Blazers more competitive.
I don't know much about next year's draft, but at face value I'd say I'd rather be picking 6-10 now and get that guy into the system a year earlier (and do other trades and signings as you can) versus drafting 15-20 next year, which just delays integrating this hypothetical young guy into the lineup. Dame aint getting any younger.
And it's funny how it's mostly the same people who were against trading LA two years ago that are now pushing to make the playoffs. If we would have started the rebuilding two years ago, maybe we would be in a better position right now.
B can be tweaked though. We could facilitate a deal for a team like Boston and take one of their many picks in return for Lee's contract and still have multiple picks possibly.
Yeah, that last bit is the biggest part of the equation for me. He's going to be 26 by the start of next season and just entering what will likely be his 4-5 peak years. A 6-10 range pick historically doesn't do much until about his 3rd year. I'm really hoping that Olshey has some trade magic up his sleeve.
I don't follow? Wouldn't you rather Olshey have some draft magic up his sleeve in June? If he hits on a guy and he takes 2-3 years as you say, wouldn't that put him in Damian's prime years and line up for a few years of (hopefully) decent playoff runs and maybe even (god forbid) a chance at the ultimate prize?
I can understand why some people fall into the "love the one you're with" category, and are content with "the now," but I like to look at the big picture. I want to win a freaking championship dammit. I'm tired of coming close, or just being one of the better teams. I have watched the Ducks lose in the Natty twice now. I have watched the Niners lose two NFC championships and one Super Bowl. This is all in the span of five or six years. I want to see the Blazers succeed, and in a league of super stars, we aren't going to get it done with Dame and CJ.
That's the rumor. Supposedly Golden State offered one of Klay or Barnes with Lee. Not sure how true that was, but if we HAD taken Cleveland's offer, we could have Oladipo/Gobert (hindsight being 20/20) and Thompson to go with Dame. Maybe we keep Batum or draft the Greek Freak instead of CJ if we already had Oladipo. Things could be drastically different right now if we had dealt LA.
Hey, if he can hit a home run in the draft, whoopee! Nobody would be happier. Olshey's recent picks in the mid-lottery range include: CJ, Leonard, and Aminu. CJ is the only one with even a sniff at being an All-Star. Not exactly confidence building that there's probable gold in that path.
