I totally disagree here. I get that Crawford could get hot, or go off, at any time. But he's up for 6th man consideration far more off of reputation. He just flat out has not had a good season. 14 points, but on 11 shots a game. He's got a higher usage rate than all but Lillard and CJ on our team. But with poor shooting, and Plumlee has a better assist percentage than he does, so it isn't like he's offering playmaking. Aminu has been a better shooter this year, for someone that's their "microwave". Again, I get that he gets hot. But he's overall been bad. Henderson has shot better from 3. Crabbe way better. They also both play solidly on the other end of the floor. I think this is totally buying into media liking to talk about a 6MOY strictly off of PPG.
Dont let pierce, Crawchuck, or reddick get hot. Keep those 3 from shooting swish3s and win by attrition. Guards have to help secure defensive rebounds, dont let those guys get more than 1 look.
CP3 is an advantage for them. Great on offense along with excellent defense. Aminu isn't really an advantage for us; he's a role player I'd look at those guys as a group instead of 1 vs 1. If we look at all our role players including the bench we could have an advantage. It won't be one of them that's a huge key; we need a collective effort. I don't expect a great Blake Griffin, but the Clippers certainly are a very good team on both ends even without him. To me the series comes down to DeAndre vs CJ. We have a real problem with big athletic centers. CJ potentially has a huge advantage the other way as CP3 can only guard one man. CJ needs to dominate his matchup more than DeAndre dominantes his. So to win both our bench needs to outperform theirs and CJ needs to outplay DJ. Let's say each outcome is a coin flip; that gives us a 25% chance to win this thing which isn't far off. Go Blazers!
I agree with most of this. But remember that Aminu was basically the mav's best player in the playoffs last year. And he is going to be free a lot with the attention on Dame and cj.
Lillard should be on CP3; he's much better at on ball defense than away from the ball. It's the lesser of two evils. What makes CP3 special offensively isn't his ability to score; its his ability to get everyone else on the team rolling.
And Jordan being allowed to get away with moving picks to free up CP3 every time. Hopefully that gets cleaned up by the refs but I am not holding my breath.
It's not Dame who is torched by Paul, it's the idiotic defensive scheme we use to guard him. What we should do is pretty simple: The big opens up, does NOT hedge, and guard goes UNDERNEATH the pick. Double him 25% of the time. If we go over top of that pick one time...
The Clippers have lost in the 1st round or 2nd round each of the past 4 seasons. They've made it to the 2nd round in both of Rivers' seasons as coach. They choke in the playoffs, considering how good they look on paper. I think they're quite beatable. I'm not sure you have to stop Paul to beat them. I'm more concerned with stopping Reddick, who can kill us with his 3pt shooting. We also need to keep Jordan off the glass, especially on the offensive end. Also, Crawful can really go off against our 2nd unit, too.
Crawchuck hasn't been as good but he still (and did so this season) has the ability to flat out explode more than Crabbe or Hendo. Crabbe hasn't shot well for a couple of months and while Gerald has been solid, he hasn't shown the ability to take over a game at times like Crawford. Pierce is WAY passed his prime but just last season was good for some daggers against the Spurs. He'd just got that clutch experience that no on on the Blazers has. Davis does things that no Clipper can do but Green can be quite effective IF he decides to show up. Even though the Clippers haven't done very well in the Playoffs, the Power Rankings have this as an 82% likely hood that they beat the Blazers. I would love to beat those whiny crybabies but it would certainly be an upset.
Crabbe hasn't shot well in a couple of months? He shot 50% from 3 in April. 43.6% in march. You may be thinking of the poor shooting February he had, and forgotten how well he's shot since. I agree that we're unlikely to win. I don't think it'll be easy to even get a game. Just disagree with the reasoning on it to an extent.
