Rumor Bleacher Report (lol): OKC looking to trade Westbrook before season starts?

Opinions are divided.
Remember, Harden had just had a GODAWFUL, like Harrison Barnes bad finals.

 

Yeah, expectations don't always bear out, even if they're well-founded (leaving aside whether mine are, since we apparently disagree on that). But you're not exactly refuting my assertion that Presti's 2007-09 magic was flukish by comparing it to other relatively black swan events.

And you're right, I haven't done the research on whether Presti's haul over the past seven years is actually in line with typical expectations or not, but doing the research would be exceedingly complicated, considering every GM hasn't had the same draft capital over those seven years. It would require a pretty rigorous study of what the expected value of each selection generally nets and then coming up with the expected value of each team's draft capital over the past seven years and comparing it to the actual value of the players they drafted. All of which would require a good measure of player value.

Am I going to do that? No. If you've actually done that, I'd be both impressed and interested to see the results. But in the absence of that, yeah, I'm going "by feel" to an extent, which I recognize could be very wrong. I'm not stating my contentions as fact, just as an opinion. My opinion is that Presti's draft work over the past seven years, for where he's been drafting, hasn't been stand-out for a good GM. Whereas what he did, again for where he was drafting, from 2007-09 was historically stand-out even for a good GM.

As nik said, we'll probably have a chance to actually see. If he again starts drafting superstars at the top of the draft, I'll agree that I was wrong and he's particularly good at finding such players.

 

How about this trade (which gets OKC two Oklahoma players):



Obviously Boston makes out like bandits, so they have to throw in picks to somebody.

 

But they made the finals with him. And have not without him. Harden may not have had a good finals, but he looked great the rest of the year. OKC would have at least 1 title by now if they would not have traded him.

 

Yeah, and the Thunder made the Finals with all their core players at 22-23 years old.

Sure, Presti's hand was forced by his tightwad owners who refused to amnesty Perkins so they could keep both Ibaka and Harden, but it was Presti that chose Ibaka over Harden. He overpaid Ibaka, because he valued him more than Harden, and then had to trade Harden, rather than pay him. Ot wasn't like Ibaka lit it up in the playooffs. In fact, he had an even worse finals than Harden

In spite of what you say about Harden's performance in the finals, he was coming off a year when his PER was 21.1 for the regular season and 20.9 in the playoffs. Not bad for a guy who was 22 and the third option on offense. In spite of coming off the bench, Harden was OKCs most efficient scorer (.660 TS%) and second on the team in both BPM and VORP.

Harrison Barnes dreams of someday being that good. Oh, and didn't Barnes just get a max, deal from DAL?

Anyway you slice it, Presti blew the Harden situation. And, he also just lost Durant for nothing. Keep singing his praises. I hope he has a long tenure in OKC. They haven't made it back to the finals since he traded Harden, they just lost Durant and are about to lose Westbrook. Like you, I'm happy with the job Presti is doing in OKC, but I'm happy for different reasons.

BNM

 

I've generally felt that if the Thunder were going to trade a superstar, dealing for Griffin made the most sense, since as an Oklahoman, he has a reasonable chance of being willing to-resign.

 

-16 wins for OKC. Sure, pull the trigger. That makes them a fringe team, best case picking at the end of the lottery. Right where I want them.

BNM

 

Are you saying you wouldn't rather have Presti than Olshey? Because if that's what you're saying, you crazy.

 

Yes you do. His name is LeBron. Who doesn't want to play with LeBron James? Kevin Love wanted and title and playing with LeBron gave him that opportunity.

 

The wins total is actually a random number generator. Little known fact.

 

Then, I must be crazy. Olshey got us the second best backcourt in the NBA with the 6th and 1oth picks. Presti has drafted exactly one rotation player since 2011 (Steven Adams at 12).

We lost our leading scorer and rebounder, and three other starters and were still 5th seed in the West and made the second round with the youngest team in the playoffs. Lets see how OKC does after losing their leading scorer. He missed 55 games in 2015 and they missed the playoffs. Let's see how they do without him for 82 games.

BNM

 

That's debatable. Especially if you count defense.

Why is the cut off 2011? Maybe because since then the only pick OKC has had higher than 21 is... Steven Adams. And of course, in 2011 Presti drafted Reggie Jackson at 24, who is almost certainly currently better than CJ, but taken 14 picks later. Way to stack the deck in your favor.

Also, OKC acquired Roberson on draft night, and he was picked at #26. I guess "starter" is not "rotation" for you.

Yes, let's see.

 

His point is that, since Love was leaving anyway, the accepted wisdom was that Minny would get very little for him because the league would have them over a barrel. So the surprise was how much Cleveland gave up for him.

That's the accepted wisdom, anyway. I think it's confused: yes, if the entire rest of the league cooperated, teams like Minny with players like Love (like OKC now with Westbrook) would be screwed. But the other teams are competing, and some of them know they have no chance at the player in free agency, so they don't have the leverage that other teams have. Also, Cleveland valued short-term success way over long term and knew that this was a weak draft.

 

Because I was comparing him to Olshey, who became the POR GM right before the 2012 draft.

Nope, they had the 14th pick in 2015 and took Cameron Payne. Of course, time may prove Presti right, Payne may become their starting PG after they lose Westbrook.

And Olshey also drafted Crabbe at 31, who is part of the rotation and if we're going to play the draft day trade game, he also traded for Plumlee, our starting center, on draft day. We got a lot more out of our 23rd pick in 2015 than OKC got out of their 14th pick.

You prefer Presti. Good for you. He had a good run picking in the top 4 back in 2007 - 2009. I'll take our current roster and our current GM moving forward over a team that's in disarray. You seem to enjoy the draft lottery. So, I guess, it's a good time to be a Thunder fan.

BNM

 

I would 100% rather have Olshey.

Neil completely rebuilt our team in a couple seasons, and despite losing one of the best power forwards in the game with zero compensation, he was able to get us FURTHER in the playoffs the following season. I realize that you're still salty about the Batum trade, but you are clearly undervaluing what Neil has done.

 

I'm still salty about the the Batum trade too. I think Olshey has been above average as a GM overall and comparable to Presti's 2010-present run. I do think Presti deserves some credit for his three amazing drafts, just not the kind of credit that posits that he'll do anything comparable the next time he's in the high lottery.

 

...and also:
2008: Serge Ibaka at 24 (who netted him Oladipo and change) (Olshey took our pal Aminu at NUMBER 8 in that draft)
2011: Reggie Jackson at 24 (Olshey didn't have a draft pick, as is often the case, this time because of the momentous Baron Davis/Mo Williams trade)
2013: Andre Roberson acquired (picked at 26)
2013: Adams picked at 12 (Olshey picked CJ at #10. Not bad. Who knows who Presti would've taken at #10? But both of them whiffed on Giannis Antetokounmpo. )

This is so ridiculous. The Thunder had a legitimate shot at a title last season. They were 3-1 up. They have a young and improving roster. And you're telling me Presti's bad because he didn't trade Durant earlier? So what does that make Olshey? Our team wasn't even that great and Aldridge had been moaning for a while and yet he didn't trade LA.

 

Let's see how the Blazers do moving forward. I personally don't see us as "completely rebuilt". We DRASTICALLY overperformed last year (if we do the same or better this year, I will readily take that back) and were getting destroyed by the Clippers until Chris Paul went down. Even so, we don't have any assets that we can spare for a big trade, unlike arguably worse teams like Boston. How can we be so "rebuilt" if we have such shitty assets?

Don't get me wrong, I loved our team last year, and enjoyed the ride immensely. But I think we're kidding ourselves if we think suddenly we're a top tier team. We will again be very lucky to make the playoffs this year.

 

Wow, Olshey sure won people back fast after draft night and "whiffing" on Whiteside, Parsons, Gasol et. al. Must be those Soap Opera good looks.

 

And now has him locked up on a VERY reasonable contract. Olshey has gotten better at drafting and even better still at finding underpaid bargains.

He wasn't our GM. So, I don't care. Scratch that, it made the Clipper worse. So, yet another reason to like Olshey.

And where is Jackson now? Starting for someone else. But hey, that trade got them Kanter, who Olsey forced them to overpay or lose for nothing. And, that trade also cost them their 2017 1st round pick. Oh wait, I thought Olshey was the one who tossed aside picks like they don't matter.

Roberson sucks. The only reason he's a starter is Presti hasn't been able to find a decent starting SG since he whiffed on the Harden trade. He thought Jermey Lamb was the answer. Snicker... Then, he thought Dion Waiters was the answer. Double snicker...

And, here's the icing on the cake. Presti passed on Rudy Gobert, who UTA took one pick later, to take Roberson. I thought you'd be all over Presti for that monumental fuck up. Five picks after Rberson, Olshey took Allen Crabbe, a much better player.

Adams is decent, but will never be an all star. C.J. will be.

And, they could have made the finals several years in a row and most likely won multiple titles if Presti hadn't fucked up the Harden situation.

Young and improving roster?????? Seriously? They just lost one of the top 5 players in the game and are about to lose another one. He also traded away a future top 10 player for table scraps. How is that an improving roster. Do you actually think OKC wins more than 55 games this year (or the year after, or the year after, or the year after)? Because that's what it would take for them to improve. Yes, he did a good job drafting with top 4 picks 7 - 9 years ago, but in the end he turned Durant and Harden into Steven Adams and is about to lose Westbrook for chump change.

Olshey did a GREAT job recovering from Adridge's defection. Let's see how Presti recovers from losing Durant.

BNM